The Ten Humans Most Likely to Be President in February 2025 (Edition №1)
February 2023 edition.
The first votes for President of the United States will take place 11 months from now, in Iowa, where Republican voters (but not Democratic voters) will let their voices be heard. Eleven months ago is a very short amount of time. Eleven months ago, Will Smith slapped Chris Rock at the Academy Awards. Does that feel like 11 months ago? Or does that feel like it just happened? That’s how quickly 11 months can go.
This is to say: The 2024 Presidential campaign, like it or not, is well underway. So one must start paying attention. Thus, we commence a new feature: Presidential Power Rankings. These will run monthly, starting today. A lot can happen in a month.
This is not a ranking of my favorite candidates, or the ones who have the most current momentum. It is simply a ranking of the 10 people most likely to be the President in February 2025 — after the next election.
Here’s the inaugural top 10. We’ll see you again on these in a month.
10. Ted Cruz. Good ole Ted. You know, it feels like Ted Cruz has been running for President forever, even if he has, in fact, only run once. Cruz’s theory of the case — the “real” conservative — made more sense in 2016 than it does now. Like with every other candidate in that race, Donald Trump made him and everybody else look like, as The Joker might put it, the schemers they really are. (They have done nothing but eat each other since then.) Cruz hasn’t made many nods toward running just yet, though it’s worth noting that he’s still, somehow, at 3 percent in the new Morning Consult poll.
We will be referring to this poll again in this top 10. We will not be referring to Ted Cruz, however.
9. Brian Kemp. As my New York magazine colleague Ed Kilgore has noted, you can make a good case for Kemp being the guy who has best figured out how to thread the needle that Nikki Haley, Tim Scott and even Mike Pence have been struggling with for the last few years. Align yourself with Trump and his voters and his supposed “values,” but also strategically (and, it must be said, patriotically) distance yourself when he starts getting all “they stole the election from me,” which, it turns out, general voters actually hate. Kemp won re-election in a state that has two Democratic Senators and voted for Joe Biden, but he didn’t just win it: He absolutely stomped Democratic hero Stacey Abrams, effectively ending her political career in the state. He has shown no real inkling to get in the race, but he is a far more deft politician than he is generally given credit for. It might make more sense for him to run again in four years — as long as there isn’t a President DeSantis by then — but he has more of a lane here than you might think.
8. Pete Buttigieg. There are only three Democratic politicians on this list, and it’s very possible that in a month there will be only one. But you sort of have to add Mayor Pete just in case President Biden suddenly decides out of nowhere not to run, or if there is some sort of health issue. If Biden stepped aside, the Democratic field would hardly clear out for Vice President Kamala Harris, and I think you can make a good case for Buttigieg being her top challenger. But I bet this is the only time he’s on this list.
7. Mike Pence. He’s tied for third in that Morning Consult poll, but, if I’m being honest, I don’t really understand why. He’s the most Christian candidate in the race, but the Trump Era has changed the evangelical world in ways that will take decades to unravel, which makes Pence feel like a candidate from a different time and place. Also: A bunch of supporters of the previous President literally want to murder him, which is the sort of factoid that doesn’t show up in polls but, uh, may end up factoring into all this.
6. Kamala Harris. Biden’s running: That’s increasingly clear now. But Harris is still the Vice President, and Biden is still 80. The farther we get into this process, the more difficult it would be not to give the nomination to Harris if something were to happen to Biden. If Biden has a serious health issue in, say, December 2023, wouldn’t you just give the nomination to Harris then? Wouldn’t you have to?
5. Nikki Haley. The Bulwark pointed out that Haley is the perfect candidate for 2015, which strikes me as correct but probably underrates her chances a little. It has been awkward to watch her try to straddle both sides of the Trump fence, but all told, if DeSantis craps out (which is possible) and Trump is a faded Trump (which also seems possible), there will be an opening for someone. There would seem to be two candidates primed for that opening. Haley is the first one. The second one is …
4. Tim Scott. Scott has had to deal with some of the same when-do-I-stand-with-Trump-and-when-do-I-not? issues as Haley, but you can argue he has handled them more deftly: You certainly see him hammered for the awkwardness less than you see her. Scott is a clearly skilled politician, and I’d bet he’s the guy in the ideal position to benefit if the two frontrunners collapse. Though if they somehow do, he will have plenty of company in that lane.
3. Ron DeSantis. First off, it’s undeniable: Meatball Ron is a much better Trump nickname than Ron DeSanctimonious. That Trump is road testing a better derisive nickname — that Trump denies doing so should serve as cold proof that he is — shows that DeSantis (and his widespread party support) is in Trump’s head a little. But that DeSantis still won’t confront Trump — even when Trump implies he’s a child molestor — is a concern: You can only stay above the fray for so long until you get serious Jeb! vibes. Eventually he’s going to have to get in the fight. And I dunno: Can Meatball Ron really win that sort of fight?
2. Donald Trump. He’s still ahead in every poll. Every Republican is scared to cross him or his voters. There’s going to be a lot of people running. He seems to have some smarter people in charge of his campaign, such as it is, this time. How could he not be the frontrunner? He’s the easy favorite until someone comes after him to take him down. And, clearly: No one in his party wants to do that. Still.
- Joe Biden. He’s on a high right now, after the midterms and that rollicking “hey, this guy’s still got it” State of the Union. But this campaign has a long, long, long way to go. Until the pandemic hit and he got to chill at home, he looked extremely tired last time. We sure he’s up for this? There is an inherent duality to Biden’s candidacy. On one hand, he has said he only ran for President in the first place because of the horrors of Trump and the existential (and, eventually, quite urgent) peril of Trump’s Presidency. No one wants Trump to be President less than Biden. On the other hand, if Biden could hand pick his opponent … it would have to be Trump, right? Biden is the favorite to win the Presidency again because Trump is the favorite to win the Republican nomination. If the latter changes, the former certainly will as well.
We’ll be back March 15 to see if anything has changed. Strap in, all: We’ve got a long road again.
Will Leitch writes multiple pieces a week for Medium. Make sure to follow him right here. He lives in Athens, Georgia, with his family and is the author of five books, including the Edgar-nominated novel How Lucky, now out from Harper Books. He also writes a free weekly newsletter that you might enjoy.