The State of the Race for the 92nd Academy Awards
With the upcoming Academy Awards ceremony being earlier than it ever has been in its near-century history, we are in for a majorly condensed awards season. After a couple of weeks of minor critics groups weighing in with their votes for the best in film for 2019, the Oscar race really started to really take shape over the last five days with the Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globe Awards, and Screen Actors Guild Awards all announcing their nominees. It looks to be an atypically exciting and unpredictable — but typically controversial — Oscar race this year.
The lead-up to the Academy Awards has become a notoriously drawn-out affair, with campaigning beginning in earnest in the fall and dozens of awards ceremonies from December onward leading up to the big night, which for many years has been held at the very end of February or in March. For reasons that are not entirely clear, the upcoming 92nd Annual Academy Awards ceremony is set to air earlier than it ever has in its history (February 9th). As a result, we are in for a condensed two-month period of nearly non-stop nomination announcements, awards ceremonies, campaigning, and passionate social media battles.
Undoubtedly, awards season was already in full swing by the beginning of December. “For Your Consideration” advertisements and events were already abundant and a host of regional and national critics groups were naming their picks. But only in the last five days have we really gotten a sense of what the Oscar nominees are likely to be. That is because three of the most reliable predictors of the Oscars have announced their nominees. I include a brief overview of those three awards ceremonies and then launch in to an analysis of what their picks tell us about the Oscar race.
- The 77th Annual Golden Globe Awards. A long-running institution, the Globes are voted upon by members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a small and somewhat mysterious group of journalists who cover Hollywood for foreign media outlets. They have always been known as a great party and a fun telecast, but in recent years have been taken very seriously due to their ability to presage the Oscars. In the last 24 years, the Golden Globes have converged with the Oscars on the winner of Best Picture 13 times, Best Director 14 times, Best Actor 17 times, and Best Actress 20 times. (Although separate awards for Picture, Actor, and Actress are given to dramatic and musical/comedy films at the Globes). The nominations were announced on December 9 and the ceremony will be held on January 5. The full nomination list can be found here.
- The 26th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards. This relatively young awards show is notable in that it is voted on by the nearly 120,000 members of SAG-AFTRA (the actors union), a small but influential subset of whom are also members of the Oscar-voting Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. In the last 24 years, the Screen Actors Guild Awards have converged with the Oscars on the winner of Best Actor 19 times and Best Actress 17 times. (Of note, the SAG Awards only award actors; the closest thing they have to a Best Picture award is Best Ensemble, which has converged with the Oscar for Best Picture only 11 of the past 24 years.) The nominations were announced on December 11 and the ceremony will be held on January 19. The full nomination list can be found here.
- The 25th Annual Critics’ Choice Awards. This ceremony is run by the Broadcast Film Critics Association, which is the largest organization of film and television critics in the United States (with a current membership of around 250). They tend to nominate more films than the Oscars (up to seven or eight per category instead of five) and have separate categories for genre movies (“Best Sci Fi/Horror Movie”). As such, it is always the case that there is some substantial divergence between this ceremony and the Oscars. Nevertheless, since their inception they have converged with the Oscars on the winner of Best Picture 14 times, Best Director 18 times, Best Actor 16 times, and Best Actress 13 times. This year’s nominations were announced on December 8 and the ceremony will be held on January 12. The full nomination list can be found here.
So what did we learn about the Oscar race from these nomination announcements? I summarize what I think are the major takeaways in the 5 sections below:
Several long-presumed front runners now appear to be gauranteed nominees
Martin Scorcese’s Netflix mob drama The Irishman, Quentin Tarantino’s ’60s set Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood, and Noah Baumbauch’s searing divorce drama Marriage Story were all expected to be big players during Oscars season long before their release and seem poised to meet those expectations following major showings at this year’s Critics Choice, Golden Globes, and Screen Actors Guilds nominations. In the top categories, The Irishman looks like a sure bet for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Supporting Actor (for both Al Pacino and Joe Pesci); Once Upon a Time… looks guaranteed to snag Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio) and Best Supporting Actor (Brad Pitt); and Marriage Story seems poised to take a spot in Best Picture, Best Actor (Adam Driver), Best Actress (Scarlett Johannson), and Best Supporting Actress (Laura Dern). (And Baumbach definitely has a shot at Best Director.)
Click here to read my reviews of Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood and Marriage Story.
Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite — my vote for best film of the year among those I have seen at this point — also joins the list of surefire nominations in Best Picture and Best Director. It received major nominations from Critics’ Choice (including Best Picture and Best Director), Golden Globes (where it is ineligible for Best Picture due to a strange Globes rule that the same film cannot be nominated for Best Foreign Film and Best Picture), and SAG (where it became only the second foreign language film ever to be nominated for the top award following 1998’s Life is Beautiful).
And then there’s Renee Zellweger. The comeback kid’s revered performance as Hollywood legend Judy Garland in Judy has been nominated everywhere and seems like a surefire Best Actress nominee, even though the otherwise tepidly reviewed film is unlikely to appear in other major categories. The same logic can be applied to Cynthia Erivo, whose turn as historical icon Harriett Tubman in Harriet has been nominated across the board.
Two divisive films with decidedly mixed reviews now appear to be locks
In addition to the four presumed Best Picture nominees listed above, it looks like they will be joined by two divisive films with overall weak reviews. Joker, which has a dismal 59/100 average critic rating on Metacritic, rode controversy and huge box office to major nominations for Best Picture (Critics Choice and Golden Globes), Best Director (Golden Globes), and Best Actor for Joaquin Phoenix (all three). Meanwhile, Taika Waititi’s whimsical Nazi fantasy Jojo Rabbit, which has a 58/100 average critic rating on Metacritic, over-performed at all three awards shows (Best Picture from Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes, Best Ensemble from SAG, and acting nominations from all three). This reminds me a bit too much of last year, when the poorly reviewed crowdpleasers Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book not only got nominated but also claimed numerous top trophies over much more deserving films. But as I haven’t seen either film yet, I’ll keep an open mind.
The once hot contenders whose buzz appears to be fading
The Best Picture category now contains a minimum of 5 and a maximum of 10 nominees, with most years ending up with 8 or 9 nominees. So if the 6 above are looking like solid bets, what is going to round out the category? Well that is an increasingly difficult question to answer given that a couple of high-profile films have underperformed.
Greta Gerwig’s adaptation of the American literary classic Little Women did very well at the Critics’ Choice Awards with Best Picture, Best Director, and two acting nominations, but scored only Best Actress at the Globes (for Saorsie Ronan) and got zilch from SAG .James Mangold’s car racing drama Ford v. Ferrari made it into Best Picture at Critics’ Choice but was omitted from directing and acting. Christian Bale made it into Best Actor at the Globes and SAG, but the film didn’t garner other nominations there. Lulu Wang’s breakout Chinese-American drama The Farewell got snubbed by SAG, but made it into a few major categories at the Critics’ Choice (Best Screenplay and two acting nominations) and Golden Globes (Best Actress and Best Foreign Language Film). And perhaps most inconsistently, the Netflix papal drama The Two Popes scored a quartet of high profile nominations at the Globes (Best Picture, Best Screenplay, and two acting nominations) while only getting two nominations from the Critics’ Choice (Best Supporting Actor and Best Screenplay) and being completely shout by the normally streaming-friendly SAGs.
Click here to read my review of The Farewell.
None of the four listed above are out of the race, but it is looking like the end of the road for some other films. Knives Out performed unexpectedly well at the Globes (Best Picture — Musical/Comedy and two acting nominations) and at the box office, but it was only nominated for Best Screenplay and Best Ensemble by the Critics’ Choice and was snubbed by the SAGs despite its lauded ensemble of A-listers. Then there’s Adam Sandler’s bid at big screen credibility Uncut Gems, the black and white period indie The Lighthouse, Eddie Murphy’s Netflix vehicle Dolemite is My Name, and Clint Eastwood’s biographical drama Richard Jewell all of which got some sporadic nominations but failed to be nominated for key awards that would indicate they have enough support to make it to the Oscars.
Some presumed long shots and big question marks are on the rise
Few films have had as wild an awards season ride so far as the Fox News sexual harassment drama Bombshell. It was announced for an awards season release very late in the game and subsequently pre-screened to raves only to get some fairly harsh reviews over the past week (it currently has a 67/100 at Metacritic) and get completely snubbed by the Globes. However, it came back in a big way today with SAG giving it four nominations — Best Ensemble, Best Actress (Charlize Theron), and two for Best Supporting Actress (Margot Robbie and Nicole Kidman). Almost every year there is at least one movie that SAG goes for in a big way that is largely ignored by Oscar. This could be it … or it could be a sign that the movie is on its way to Oscar glory.
Sam Mendes’s WWI epic 1917 won’t be released until Christmas but has some raves from early screenings. The Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes apparently liked what they saw at said screenings and nominated it for Best Picture and Best Director. It failed to get any nominations at the SAG awards but that’s not necessarily surprising given that it is a film more about production than acting. (Think 2017’s Dunkirk, which only got a nomination for Best Stunt Ensemble at SAG but performed well elsewhere on its way to 8 Oscar nominations and 3 wins.)
Meanwhile, two performances from blockbuster films released to great critical acclaim in the first half of 2019 came roaring back in a big way. Lupita Nyong’o scored Critics’ Choice and SAG nominations for her work in Jordan Peele’s horror film Us and Taron Egerton got nominated for all three awards for his role as music icon Sir Elton John in Rocketman. They aren’t quite sure bets yet but they gained huge momentum in the last few days.
The big question marks
Finally, there is a quintet of high profile actors who on paper seem like slam dunks for nominations, but I suspect are quite vulnerable.
Tom Hanks has received Best Supporting Actor nominations from all three groups for his role as television icon Mr. Rogers in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Hanks is a beloved icon in his own right, being a five-time nominee and two-time winner. So why is he vulnerable? Because he hasn’t been nominated since 2000’s Cast Away despite the fact that he has been in contention multiple times since with films that got other Oscar nominations: Road to Perdition (2002), Catch Me if You Can (2002), Charlie Wilson’s War (2007), Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011), Captain Phillips (2013), Saving Mr. Banks (2013), Bridge of Spies (2015), Sully (2016), and The Post (2017). I think he has a great shot this year, but I have said that before and been wrong.
Considering that Scarlett Johannson not only got nominated for Best Actress for Marriage Story at all three groups, but also nominations from Critics’ Choice and SAG for Best Supporting Actress for Jojo Rabbit, she’s a lock to get at least one Oscar nomination this year, right? Not necessarily. She has turned off a lot of Hollywood with tone-deaf comments about diversity and her support of Woody Allen recently and has never received an Oscar nomination despite four previous Globe nominations (two of which — Lost in Translation and Match Point — scored Oscar nominations in other categories). I am predicting her for Best Actress, but wouldn’t be shocked to see her snubbed.
Robert DeNiro received seven Oscar nominations and two wins from 1974 to 2012 and has the lead role in Scorcese’s beloved Oscar frontrunner The Irishman. So he’s a shoo-in, right? Not necessarily. He was not nominated by the Golden Globes or SAG (despite the fact that the latter is giving him their lifetime achievement award this year). The Critics’ Choice did nominate him but in an expanded field of seven nominees. In a very rare year when Best Actor is the strongest of the four acting categories, I am actually predicting DeNiro to be left out.
Speaking of the astonishing strength of the Best Actor category, Antonio Banderas’s critically adored performance in Pedro Almodovar’s Pain and Glory seems like it would be a surefire nominee in a less competitive year. He has already won high profile Best Actor awards from critics groups and he is a well-liked, well-respected veteran actor who has never been nominated. But can he squeeze in to an ultra-competitive category with a little seen foreign film? That remains to be seen.
Conventional wisdom says that Jennifer Lopez is second only to Laura Dern as the likely winner of the Best Supporting Actress Oscar. The buzz for her performance in Hustlers has been deafening and she scored a nomination from all three groups. But not so fast. In 2015, Jennifer Aniston had deafening buzz for her role in Cake and got nominated by all three groups only to miss an Oscar nomination. Ditto Scarlett Johannson for Lost in Translation (2003), Cameron Diaz for Vanilla Sky (2002), and Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns (2018). I cannot call Lopez a lock given the long history of never-nominated, commercially successful, beautiful, media-beloved actresses who won over every group except the Academy in the the past.
Note: I will be covering awards season on Medium and Twitter now through February.
