The Rise of Non-State Alliances and Their Impact on Middle Eastern Geopolitics

For perhaps the first time in history, we are witnessing a coalition of non-state actors, now frequently being referred to as the “axis of resistance,” collectively defending another non-state actor, Hamas.

This axis, led by Iran, comprises a range of groups including Syrian militias, Palestinian groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU), and Yemen’s Houthis (officially Ansar Allah).

Over the past three months, this axis has actively engaged in attacks against Israeli and US targets — a move that signifies a deepening of their commitment to the Palestinian cause.

Interestingly, the response from the US, UK, and Israel has been to view these groups merely as Iranian proxies — a perspective that fundamentally misinterprets the dynamics within the axis.

It overlooks the strong ideological and strategic bonds that unite these groups, potentially leading to misguided interventions by Western powers.

This is an alliance that shares mutual military and political support to counter Israel, with Iran’s role pivotal, providing Hezbollah, Hamas, and other Palestinian factions with military and financial aid.

Syria has then also facilitated this by offering safe passage and refuge for these groups.

Hezbollah, on its part, has imparted military training and skills to Hamas, enhancing their tactical capabilities.

The axis first manifested as a wartime coalition in 2013, rallying around the Syrian state — Hezbollah’s direct intervention in the Syrian war, along with Iran deploying its Revolutionary Guards and the formation of PMU, marked a significant expansion of the axis.

Iran and Hezbollah’s intervention in Iraq in 2014 against Islamic State, and the support extended to the Houthis in their conflict with the Saudi-led coalition in 2015, then further solidified the axis.

What truly sets the axis apart is its cohesive ideology and shared strategic objectives — all members are unified by an anti-imperialist, anti-Zionist stance, with the Palestinian cause at the core.

Their goals are twofold: enforcing an unconditional ceasefire in Gaza and expelling US troops from Iraq and Syria.

Contrary to the view of them being simply Iranian proxies, these non-state actors act in line with their own political beliefs and strategic interests.

The support from Iran doesn’t translate into a typical sponsor-proxy dynamic. In fact, these groups have evolved beyond being Iranian proxies, and are now mature political-military entities, ideologically aligned and committed to mutual defence.

Their alliance is organic and symbiotic, not transactional.

A prime example of their autonomous action was Hamas’s unexpected attack on Israel on October 7, seemingly without Iran’s prior knowledge.

Yet, there seems to be a pre-planned “forward defence” strategy where Hezbollah, the Houthis, and PMU groups initiate strikes in support of Hamas.

This strategy involves tactical military coordination, with Hezbollah playing a key role in directing and planning operations across different conflict theatres.

This high level of coordination demonstrates a unity of purpose that necessitates a reevaluation of the US and its allies’ approach to the conflict.

The prevailing assumption that military action can break these groups’ resolve is dangerously misguided.

Instead, such actions might provoke more coordinated responses from the axis.

The prospect of a full-blown regional war now looms larger, especially with the Houthis threatening to target all US and UK interests in the region.

The Lebanese-Israeli front is also particularly volatile, with Israel eager for a confrontation with Hezbollah — one of the most potent non-state actors globally.

It’s therefore becoming increasingly clear that military solutions will not suffice in this complex web of ideological alliances.

Only a ceasefire in Gaza might prevent the region from spiralling into further chaos.

And it needs to be understood that the emergence of the axis of resistance as a formidable coalition of non-state actors challenges traditional geopolitical strategies and calls for a profound reassessment of how conflicts in the Middle East are approached and resolved.