The Perpetual Pandemic

Winter is coming

The first documented cases of the 1918 Influenza pandemic were believed to come from Fort Riley Kansas in The United States during the First World War.

Spain, maintaining neutrality through the war, allowed press freedom and openness covering the pandemic, in so doing, the deadliest Influenza pandemic in history became forever known as “The Spanish Flu”.

Panic inducing, dangerous and disorienting, Pandemics have largely followed a pattern. Though striking in various seasons; eight influenza pandemics have been documented since the 1700s, two began in winter (Northern Hemisphere), three in the spring, one in the summer, and two in the fall.

In all but one, a second substantial peak occurred approximately 6 months after first peak, with some showing smaller waves of cases over the course of 2 years.

I’m actually of the mind right now — I think this is more like a forest fire. I don’t think that this is going to slow down. Wherever there’s wood to burn, this fire is going to burn. Michael Osterholm

On April 30th, 2020, Centers For Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) released a paper wherein foremost experts have posited three different scenarios.

In the first termed “peaks and valleys”, spring 2020 is followed by a series of repetitive smaller waves that occur through the summer and then consistently over a 1- to 2-year period, gradually diminishing sometime in 2021.

The second scenario named “fall peak”, Spring 2020 is followed by a larger wave in Fall or Winter of 2020 and one or more smaller subsequent waves in 2021.

Finally, in the third and best case scenario, Spring 2020 is followed by a “slow burn” of ongoing transmission and case occurrence, but without a clear wave pattern. (NOT likely based on current data)

Experts and Mike Pence

Michael Osterholm, coauthor of the CIDRAP paper mentioned above, recently said this on NBC, “I’m actually of the mind right now — I think this is more like a forest fire. I don’t think that this is going to slow down,” he said. “Wherever there’s wood to burn, this fire is going to burn, and right now we have a lot of susceptible people."

In other words, an entirely new scenario, which sees cases continuing to increase into the fall and winter, with no foreseeable valleys or reductions.

In a Wall Street Journal article titled, “There Isn’t a Coronavirus ‘Second Wave’”, American Vice President Mike Pence argued, “the nation is winning the fight against the virus.” Leading Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health to respond, “When you have 20,000-plus infections per day (nearing 60,000), how can you talk about a second wave? We’re in the first wave. Let’s get out of the first wave before you have a second wave.”

While some countries, including New Zealand, Taiwan, Canada, Iceland, and South Korea, have neutralized Covid19, others including India, Brazil and The United States continue to see peaks and spikes. In no way encouraging, specifically when nearly all experts agree, winter will likely see an increase in Influenza as well as continuation of Sars-Cov-2.

Winter is coming

As fans of the hit show “Game of Thrones” know all too well, winter is coming; with it a scenario The United States remains woefully unprepared, or at best, under prepared for. While debating economic prosperity and the safety of the public, little if anything has been to address opening safely.

Our testing capacity, although increased, remains inadequate and our president would like to decrease testing.

Safeguards are lacking for the most susceptible, ensuring they may be unable to shelter in place, even though they may be best served in doing so.

Guidelines by state and national policymakers are often ignored, even mocked. Science and research has taken a back seat to hearsay and speculation.

Although many, including Dr. Osterholm, predicted a pandemic was likely to strike in the foreseeable future, being unprepared for both the scope and size of Covid19 can be rationalized.

Come winter 2021 however, what rationale will we have then? The United States is nearing 60,000 new cases daily, record highs since tracking began.

First wave or second wave, slow burn or forest fire, either way, cases remain high and we have no better tools today than we did back in March. Only now, we have an agitated, impatient public, amazed and dismayed with an anemic response.

For more on diet and immunity, check out “Germs, Genes and Greens”