Political Decoder Rings

The Most Important Number In American Politics Is 73

No group is monolithic, but one sure is close

Roughly three-quarters (73%) of the Republican Party is white Christian. It’s the answer to most of our political questions.

Political debates are like a roll of packing tape: the first thing to do is run your fingernail around it to find the cut edge.

I call these moments of discovery “decoder rings.” Without them, there’s no point in fighting because you don’t understand the problem. Once found, most of the arguments are revealed as useless and fall away.

Friday, June 6th 2014 at 6:00 p.m. PDT

The first profound decoder I uncovered had to do with religion in politics, when I learned farmers in Kansas didn’t trust alternative energy because it was “secular.” (See On the UnGodliness of Alternative Energy: the day I found the magic political decoder ring and realized America was done for.)

Let it roll around in your head for a while. Farmers didn’t want wind turbines on their land because they are secular. Anything liberals do isn’t just wrong, it’s ungodly.

With that in mind, here’s the key to open most of the locks in American politics:

Today, roughly three-quarters (73%) of the Republican Party is white Christian, but fewer than one-third (29%) of the Democratic Party identifies this way.

In other words, the GOP is almost entirely white and almost entirely Christian. Three out of four Republicans are both. I don’t understand why this mind-boggling fact isn’t featured in every political story. It’s the decoder to almost everything.

Democrats are a mixed bag of competing interests. Republicans aren’t.

To be clear, there’s nothing wrong with being white, Christian, or conservative and everyone deserves representation. But we have a sprawling, diverse society with only two viable political parties, and one of them is captive to a single ethnicity and religion.

Of course, in any political discussion, someone will eventually say “no party is monolithic.” The rest will nod sagely and agree. And it’s true. But it’s also silly.

On the one hand, it’s too obvious to bother with. No group of people larger than one is monolithic. On the other, applying it to our politics ignores the white Christian elephant in the room: Democrats are a mixed bag of competing interests, Republicans aren’t. By comparison, they might as well be of a single mind.

How does it affect our national discourse? Pick an issue and cue the decoder.

Identity Politics

Even though humans are notorious for our tendency to be tribal and divide into groups, in our politics the conventional wisdom is it’s a problem confined to the left.

As usual, the conventional wisdom is wrong.

Since the GOP is white and Christian, then by a process of elimination the Democratic Party must be a jumbled mess of everything else. Consider every possible permutation of our religious and racial subgroups. Note the Democrats have significant numbers in every possible category, but the GOP consists almost entirely of just one.

In other words, liberals fracture into groups because there are groups to fracture into. Avoiding identity politics isn’t some virtue of the conservative mindset, it’s disguised by functionally only having one.

Political messaging

Pundits often ask why Democrats are terrible at messaging when Republicans are good at it. But it doesn’t even make sense to pose the question.

Every position the left takes has to be a compromise: rich and poor. Urban, suburban and rural. Very Serious Washington Insider, M.C. Crescent Wrench, and Starlight Moonbeam the hippie yoga instructor. In the end, there will be hurt feelings and dissatisfaction with the result, as is always the case with compromise. Dissenting voices will speak out, giving ammunition to the other side.

However, the homogeneity on the right makes crafting and delivering the party line relatively simple. Most of their voters are always on roughly the same page. Common cultural touchstones help avoid confusion. Dog whistles and coded messages are easy. History shows religious people are used to being part of a flock and are easily led.

“Cancel culture”

This is a broad topic that typically ranges from meaningless to misleading, depending on the situation and the people involved. But consider the example of books in schools and libraries. I had a back and forth recently with someone bemoaning wild-eyed liberals trying to ban classic literature. Three Dr. Seuss books are taken out of print for supposedly racist content! It’s censorship! No, it’s more than that, it’s cancel culture!

But this simplistic argument misses the crucial point. Historically, the gatekeepers of literature have been white Christians. They’ve decided what should be on the shelves in the first place.

They have always decreed which books, movies, music, and art passed muster, so much of the material they find offensive is “pre-canceled.” Then when they do censor, it’s called “upholding traditional values” instead. But if you research banned books, you’ll quickly see they’re doing a lot more upholding than the left is canceling.

Diversity is strength…except when unity is stronger

The upshot is in a culture long defined by one race and religion, the political movement representing them will be very invested in preserving that culture and have relatively few internal disagreements in the process. The other side of the aisle will be chaotic and disorganized.

So whenever a political situation presents itself, hit it with the decoder. You’ll find it makes everything much clearer. You’re welcome.