MEDIUM

Sorry Folks, the Medium Goldrush is Over

Here are the market fundamentals (with data)

Most late arrivals to the California Gold Rush (1848–1855) made very little money. Some of them even lost money. They certainly lost all the time and energy they wasted traveling across America.

In any growing market, there’s a judgment call of how late is too late? At what point have you missed the opportunity? When should you no longer throw your hat in the ring?

Whether it’s the dotcom boom, Bitcoin, or Gamestop shares, it’s the same question: is the market at its peak?

Medium is a new prospect for many writers. There’s been a gold rush on the platform, prompted by writers like Zulie Rane and Sinem Günel openly sharing their earnings on the platform of $3k+ per month.

But, have all the best stakes been claimed? At what point are you more likely to lose out rather than gain, by investing your life in being a Medium writer?

Thousands of New Writers are Signing Up to Medium

I’ve been drawn into Medium by the promise of gold. So have many other writers. Last month my sister messaged me saying “I’ve joined Medium, I love your writing! And I’m gonna write for them too.”

Writers who want to make a living online are migrating here. They’ve found their home. As a result, the growth in writer numbers is astounding.

When I joined Sinem Günel’s Facebook group for Medium writers last year, it had 2,000 members. In the past four months, the group has more than doubled in size. Sinem does a great job making it a positive and welcoming group.

Meanwhile, Zulie Rane, Tom Kuegler, and other big-name Medium writers are reporting significant drops in traffic and income. Zulie says: “Medium stats are garbage right now.” In an interview with Sinem Günel, Tom Kuegler said that while he’s been through cycles of good times and bad times with his Medium stats, this time feels different.

I’ve heard similar, off-the-record reports from publishers on Medium. Their stats are down, hard.

And everyone’s shouting “Algorithms!” and pleading with Medium to make things just like they were in the good ol’ days.

But the good ol’ days are gone. We’re in a new world now.

So, what’s going on?

In short: Tom, Zulie and Sinem (and other writers like them) are victims of their own success. The more they shout about how much money they’re making on Medium, the more writers join the platform to make their fortune.

And while in theory that’s great for Medium, because it means more content, it only works out if there’s also more revenue to spread between all these new writers.

So, I wanted to look at the market fundamentals in a bid to calculate the chances of making a good living from the platform.

Is readership growing fast enough to keep up with the influx of new writers?

In short, no.

As far as I can tell, while all the evidence suggests writer numbers are soaring, reader numbers have plateaued. In other words, there’s a ton of new content from exciting new writers, but not enough eyeballs to keep up with what’s being published

So, here’s the quick version: if you’re hoping to make a full-time income from Medium, you’ll be paddling against a heavy tide. (And to be clear, neither Sinem, Zulie nor Tom treat Medium as their sole source of income).

However, you’re writing on Medium for other reasons, then there’s plenty to be positive about. I’ll come to that after we’ve looked at the numbers.

Medium Traffic Report

Here is Medium’s traffic report for the past few years:

(How this works: SEMRush estimates traffic based on where a site places for keywords in Google search results. The data isn’t perfect, it’s their best estimate. But it’s a solid estimate based on millions of data points.)

Medium saw strong and steady growth from 2017 until the end of 2019. Writers who joined at this point — and who produced solid content — had a real opportunity of reaching a wide range of readers. And, from the time Medium started paying writers, those writers had a good chance of making a decent income.

The platform’s readership was growing month-on-month. There was plenty of good fortune to spread around.

Then, in 2020, things went through the roof! Traffic doubled almost overnight, from 40 million visits per month to 80 million. People were locked down at home, and Medium saw the benefits. People asked for content to read, and Medium served it up.

But since that point, traffic has flat-lined. For the past 12 months, the growth has stopped.

Update: The Verge has confirmed that paid subscriptions also flatlined in 2020. This is based on interviews with 14 current and former Medium employees

Traffic’s Not Decreasing, so What’s the Problem?

Medium’s traffic shot up between 2017 and 2020. This meant good writers saw a lot of success on the platform.

These writers shared about their success. This brought more and more writers to Medium, looking to make their fortune.

As the online pandemic happened, millions of people who’ve always thought “I’d love to write someday” were re-evaluating their priorities. Plus, suddenly had space in their schedule for writing.

Writers flocked to Medium.

At the same time… Medium’s traffic flat-lined.

There was a ton of extra supply of content from all the new articles, but only the same amount of interest from readers. There hasn’t been the growth in reader numbers to sustain the growth in writer count.

So What about Medium’s Algorithms?

I don’t fully understand Medium’s algorithms. Nobody does, other than Medium. What I’ve presented above is the data. What I’m about to say is speculation.

Here’s my best guess. As more and more new writers have joined the platform, Medium have wanted to retain this talent. There’s also more content to share, which means Medium can better target content to readers.

Medium, in my view, is sharing the love between all the new writers. That’s why the stats of so many writers are down. There are more and more writers, but the same amount of readers. Medium is sharing out the views between all the writers in the best and fairest way it can.

The biggest losers in all this are the big-name writers. As more and more great writers join Medium, the big names are having to share their riches.

Now of course, if Medium starts growing again, there will be more money to go around, and everyone’s earnings could increase. But for the time being, Medium is doing the best it can.

It sounds depressing, but actually, things aren’t so bad as they sound. I love it here on Medium, and I’m planning to stay for the long-haul.

I’m Here to Stay — For 7 Reasons I Would Never Have Guessed

Even with the above analysis, I’m planning to keep writing on Medium for a long time to come. I would never have guessed these when I started writing on Medium four months ago.

Here’s why I’m planning to stick around:

• Rapid follower growth. I’ve been writing on Medium for 4 months, and I’ve hit over 1,000 followers. In a year of writing on a WordPress blog, I gained 100 subscribers. I’ve not found any other writing platform that matches writers so immediately with readers.
• Qualitative and quantitative feedback. With every article I write, I get detailed feedback on how it engaged editors, and how it landed with readers. I get comments from editors and readers, and I get readership and engagement stats. All of this improves my writing.
• Earn as I learn. I’m improving at one of life’s most valuable skills — writing — and I’m being paid to do so. Most hobbies cost money. Medium is a hobby that pays me.
• Rejections! My writing has been rejected more on Medium than it ever has been before. This has been a wake-up call. It also means I’m much less attached to my writing, and much more willing to put it out there. I’m excited about the possibilities this opens up in submitting my work to traditional channels — agents and magazine editors.
• I’m a misfit among misfits — I found my crowd. I’m someone who contains multitudes. I don’t fit in easily anywhere. I’m both spiritual and scientific. I’m a big dreamer and a realist. I’m conservative and liberal. I defy easy categorization, and I refuse to be put into a box. I didn’t realize there are so many people in the world — all around the world — just like me until I started making connections on Medium with other writers.
• Dopamine motivation. For decades I dreamed of sharing my writing with the world, and I held back. I couldn’t find the right outlet. I couldn’t find a reason to write. Medium gives me that reason — the cheap thrill of the green notification dot. I’m a pragmatist, and I’m happy to have hacked my brain’s happy-button to keep my fingers pouring out words.
• The one-armed bandit. Medium is a slot machine. Every article has the potential to go viral. Every article has the potential to transform my writing career. There’s a thrill to seeing each article I publish as a lotto ticket. It’s the buzz of: I might win a tour of the Charlie’s Chocolate Factory.

5 Mindset Shifts for Long Term Success and Stability on Medium

Here are the mindset shifts that help me make the most of Medium:

• Take a realistic view. Write on Medium with your eyes open. You’re unlikely to be the next Tim Denning or Ayodeji Awosika. There’s a 99.9% chance it will never be your main gig. Medium is not a reliable source of income for anybody. There are very few big-name writers who rely on Medium as their main source of income — and all of them diversify their income sources.
• Plan ahead. As you build an audience on Medium, what will your next step be? This could be publishing books, winning clients, selling online courses, or simply learning how to be a better writer. Medium is a great starting point to build a successful career as an online creative, but it’s just that — a starting point.
• Ask (and pay for) help. I’ve earned over $500 on Medium so far. I’ve spent significantly more than that on coaching and courses to learn how to be a Medium writer. And every cent has been worth it. I’ll quickly make back the money I spent, and I’ve got much further, much faster than I would have without coaching. Where should you start with coaching? Look for the coaches and courses that make realistic promises — such as earning your first $100 or learning how to get published in a Medium publication (these are affiliate links, so I earn a small commission if you buy these courses. I’ve taken both of them, they’re excellent).
• Beginner’s mind. I’ve been writing for professional clients for over a decade. I thought I was a good writer. Then I kept getting rejected by publications. It was a huge wake-up call. I’ve had to completely re-think and re-build my writing skills from the ground up. I’m a 10x better writer than I was four months ago. To learn what you need to do better, pay for coaching, and get support from other writers. Story Second Chances is also a great place to get a teardown on your writing skills.
• Enjoy the ride! There are plenty of good reasons to publish on Medium. Hoping for a full-time living from the platform alone isn’t one of them. Make the most of it for what it is, rather than wishing for it to be something more.

Many online publishers around the world are firing writers. Making a living as a writer online is hard. Medium is making the effort to pay all writers, based on performance. Let’s celebrate that!

It’s always going to be a small subset of writers who earn a decent living on Medium. For your best (and only) chance to break into that club, then keep writing. Good luck — and very happy to meet you!

This article is part of my 30 Day Medium Challenge: