The Long Run Just Sort of Happens

There is only so much you can plan

Despite all you have read about self-improvement, do you still struggle to develop a long-term perspective or mindset?

I know I do.

My view of the long term isn’t anywhere near as sexy as others make it out to be. But it can still be helpful.

Is there anything more subjective and vague than how we define the long and short term? These are relative measures of time specific to each individual. The only thing we could agree on is that the medium-term is somewhere in between.

Currently, I see the short term as a matter of months up to a couple of years. The long term is around 7 years+ for me. You will no doubt have your own measure.

How sexy is the following perspective?

Most people don’t want to take a long time to succeed. Having a long-term perspective just means they allow themselves more time to keep trying.

Yikes, if that doesn’t pull you in, I don’t know what will. Here is how I cultivate such a “killer” long term perspective.

Start with the end in mind

The first time I read The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People by Stephen R. Covey, I was 13. I couldn’t understand or even pronounce what the word paradigm meant. I guess you can call it a mindset.

There is a particularly memorable exercise that Dr. Covey included in the book. It’s a little morbid but as the title would suggest, it is highly effective.

Imagine you are at a funeral.

Notice your surroundings. See all the family, friends, colleagues, and acquaintances that are gathered around the casket. Think of the life the deceased lived, and how they will be remembered. Think of the impact they had on all these people around them.

What are they leaving behind? Shared memories? Feelings? Ideas? A legacy?

As you get closer to the casket to pay your respects, you see yourself. Yes, it’s your funeral.

Now consider this:

• How would you like to be remembered?
• What do you want to be remembered for?
• What matters to you?

That’s an overly dramatic way of identifying what is important to you. It’s as unpleasant as it is effective.

It’s important to understand that whatever you came up with is only your current opinion. And it’s a good start.

Your opinions about how you would like to be remembered can change. The ideas you have about legacy may also shift.

It’s very likely that ten years down the line, you might want to be remembered in a different way.

And to make that new vision of the future happen, you’ll need to change course and adjust your strategy.

Each Perspective Influences The Others

Think of the long term as more of a macro outlook. It’s a 10,000 feet view of your life. Don’t worry about the details on ground level because you simply can’t see that much of it. These details are the micro aspects of your life that you encounter in the short and medium-term.

As your long-term perspective guides you in the direction you want to go, the short and medium-term decisions you make are what get you there.

What you do today opens or closes opportunities in the future. As intentional as you would like it to be, it can also be somewhat serendipitous. What you discover in the short and medium-term can help you identify whether you want to commit for the long term or change course.

And all the while, you always have the long term in mind. You should ask yourself if the actions you take now and tomorrow are moving you in the desired direction.

Ideally, you will eventually reach a point where you have all 3 perspectives in alignment. But they won’t always stay in alignment and that’s okay.

Try your best to make all your short, medium, and long term goals work together. Make them feed each other. Cultivate a continuous feedback loop that helps ensure you live a fulfilling life (by your own standards).

Life will inevitably throw in a few detours, setbacks, and distractions your way. They aren’t always easily identifiable as good or bad. Some are wholly worthwhile.

Dissect your long term goals into smaller and more digestible milestones. Create a framework for yourself to evaluate whether you are still on track.

And be flexible. I mean, bend over backward, contortionist flexible.

And go for it. Go and try your best to accomplish your short and medium-term goals. See what happens. Get meaningful, real-world feedback instead of running constant simulations inside your head.

That’s the difference between reality and expectations. There’s a gap that needs to be bridged through experience.

What you might discover is that we are not the best estimators of time. Often, our short term goals take longer than expected. And our long term goals don’t take quite as long.

We constantly over and underestimate. If we could estimate perfectly, we would essentially be clairvoyant, we would be able to predict the future. But we can’t.

As Nassim Taleb would say, we simply don’t know what we don’t know. You have to recognize and accept that to some degree.

The Long Run Just Kind of Happens

If you keep trying and you keep doing things, you will eventually reach the long term. You just need to stay alive.

Nobody can tell you precisely what the results are going to look like. There are no guarantees that you will make it. That shouldn’t bum you out. It’s not supposed to be disheartening. In uncertainty, there can be anxiety. But there is also be excitement and challenge.

When you reach the so-called “long term”, you’ve most likely taken so many shots that some of them will have landed.

I don’t want to make it sound like it’s all down to luck and playing the numbers game. It isn’t. In the long run, luck doesn’t play as big of a factor. It’s hard work, dedication, skill, planning, and showing up.

As you get better, each shot you take has a greater chance of success.

So back to how the long run just sort of happens.

Ask anyone over 60 years old if their life has gone exactly as they planned or thought it would go. Actually, ask anyone who can give you an answer.

For as many factors we have under our control, there are many more we don’t. I don’t think many people could see how 2020 was going to turn out even back in late 2019.

Out of necessity, people have changed their short, medium, and long term outlooks. Many have pivoted and continue to pivot. That just sort of happens.

Long(er) Term Thinking

An interesting observation as I get older is that I notice that I can plan out my future a little bit further. Longer-term perspectives come with time.

This is my opinion but I think it helps explain why younger generations can struggle to think long(er) term. When we are younger, each year represents a bigger proportion of our lives. To a 10-year-old, another 10 years is a lifetime. An extremely “patient” 10-year-old is one that can look out a few months or even a year ahead.

When I was in my 20s, I could plan out 1–3 years of my life max. The exception would have been deciding to go to college but that is such a default expectation that it doesn’t count as much.

Anything more than 3 years seemed scary and too uncertain to me. I had goals that were evaluated in terms of monthly or quarterly targets.

4 years ago, I dedicated a month to become a profitable sports trader. Yes, a whole month to do something that takes others years to accomplish.

Can you guess what happened? It’s obvious I didn’t make it. I didn’t give myself enough time. I rushed it.

Now in my 30s, I can plan out a bit further. I decided to give myself a year from July onwards. I had a specific strategy in mind, and within 3–4 months, I became a mildly profitable trader. This was much faster than I expected. But there’s still much to improve upon.

Arguably, you could say that process took almost 5 years because that’s when I started to dabble in trading and casually educate myself.

So, is that what people talk about when they consider the long term? I have no idea. I gave up quickly and moved onto something more effective, and then I came back to try again afterward. To me, that “long term” just happened.

Maybe you are different and you can plan out the next 40 years. But I can’t. Neither can many others.

But that’s absolutely fine with me.

Key Takeaways

• Start with the end in mind to form your current opinion of where you want to be in the future.
• Dissect long-term goals into short and medium-term goals and milestones.
• As much as it is possible, try to align all 3 perspectives together. And allow each perspective to feed and influence the other.
• Get real market feedback instead of running constant simulations in your head.
• Sometimes, the long term just happens as long as you keep trying and stay alive. And that is absolutely fine!

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