Ukraine
Ukraine and the Kerch Bridge: What Did I Say?
A few weeks ago, I wrote about the Kerch (Crimean) Bridge and how it might be a good target for Ukraine. Now it’s in the frame
It now seems that the bridges’s potential as a high-value target is being taken seriously. And I’m in danger of losing my objectivity.
A key link
The Kerch bridge is a key link for Russia and Putin’s permanent symbol of the annexation of the Crimea — it is also known as the Crimean Bridge.
At 19 km in length it’s the longest bridge in Europe and the longest Russia has built.
Until now it’s been out of range of Ukrainian forces (other than highly valuable aircraft which would have to get through stiff Russian AA missile defences) at more than 120 miles from the nearest Ukrainian-held (and logistically accessible) territory. It’s doubtful that even an air-launched variant of Ukraine’s own Neptune could get that far (if such exists).
Ukraine is upping the ante
Now Ukraine’s Telegram channel is raising the stakes again.
Given the issues over missile ranges that I discussed in my previous story and the fact that the US and other countries are reluctant to supply long range missiles capable of striking Russian territory (despite the fact that the Crimea is still legally part of Ukraine in international law), the potential targeting is now being floated — albeit in a subtle manner that analysts will no doubt see through.
Here’s the text of that Ukraine Telegram post:
⚡️Ukrainian intelligence officers obtained detailed technical documentation on the construction of the Crimean bridge.
“Putin’s inner circle claims ‘guaranteed’ safety of the Crimean bridge”.
Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov claims that the Russian military has complete control of the situation.
“However, it is difficult to take statements of complete security seriously from people who are unable to ensure the preservation of technical documentation of the strategic facility,” the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine said.the construction of the Crimean bridge…t.me
You’ve got to laugh.
To me that sounds like ‘Oops. Don’t panic Captain Mainwaring’.
I’d have to laugh if it wasn’t so bloody serious.
But if you do feel like some light relief, then Dad’s Army could provide that. It’s really a deep insight into the inanity of war, what war really boils down to — except that the only suffering is to small town egos.
A rain of missiles?
A bridge of length 19 km would be very hard to defend against attack by Naval Strike Missiles (NSMs) and it looks as if Ukraine will not — yet — get them, despite what Western nations say. Their range would be too much for Russian geopolitical digestion.
And the Kerch is not like a river bridge which could be replaced with pontoon bridging equipment. The Kerch could take months to repair and it could surely be hit in several locations — given the right missiles.
Hours, days — and now months
And, as the hours, days, months go by in the Ukraine war, I can’t help but feeling that Putin’s Army is looking more and more like Dad’s Army.
Except of course, that Dad’ Army understood what morality was, what human values were and what was worth fighting for.
As time goes by it seems to me that it will not be long before Putin is conscripting pensioners. He’s 70 himself and he’s running out of cannon fodder.
Even the Germans love Dad’s Army, but somehow I can’t see it playing in the Kremlin.
And while I try to be objective, I do hope that the Kerch is a bridge too near for Ukraine.
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…Putin’s army
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