Summary

Apple's iPad line has not seen any new releases in the past year, suggesting potential challenges in refreshing the product range, which may be due to the constraints of integrating the M-series chips designed primarily for Macs.

Abstract

The absence of new iPad models in 2023 marks an unprecedented break from Apple's annual release pattern since the iPad's inception in 2010. This pause comes despite previous years seeing multiple iPad updates, including the iPad Pro, iPad Air, and the standard iPad in 2022. The current situation raises concerns about the future of the iPad, as the product line may be struggling to evolve with the M-series chip upgrade cycle that prioritizes Macs. The integration of the M1 chip into the iPad Pro and Air has tied their updates to the Mac's schedule, potentially causing issues with battery life and thermal management, as seen with the M3 chip's performance in MacBooks. Apple's in-house chip development, while ambitious, may be stretching resources thin, affecting the company's ability to regularly update the entire iPad range, including the cheaper models and the iPad Mini.

Opinions

The author believes that Apple's decision to use the M1 chip in iPads was a mistake, as it has inadvertently synchronized the iPad's upgrade cycle with that of the Mac, creating dependencies that may not be sustainable for the iPad's design and battery life.
There is a perception that Apple is falling behind in innovation compared to competitors like Samsung, which has already introduced waterproof tablets and may have influenced customer expectations for the iPad.
The author suggests that Apple's chip team is under significant pressure to deliver multiple new chips annually for various devices, which could be impacting the company's ability to maintain a consistent upgrade cycle for the iPad line.
The M3 chip's introduction has highlighted potential issues such as reduced battery life and increased heat generation, which may be exacerbated if the chip is adapted for use in iPads with smaller batteries.
The author speculates that Apple might be considering a shift in strategy for the iPad, possibly prioritizing either the inclusion of the best hardware or maintaining an annual release schedule.
The lack of updates for the cheaper iPads and the iPad Mini is seen as indicative of the challenges Apple faces in chip production for these devices.

The iPads Are In Trouble

As reported by Mac Rumors we have not gotten a single iPad in the last year. This is extremely unusual for the iPad line. In fact Mac Rumours points out that Apple has put out at least one new iPad each year since the line’s introduction in 2010.

And what’s so perplexing is that there are so many iPads now. There’s the iPad Pro (in two sizes), the iPad Air, the iPad Mini, the cheap iPad, and the even cheaper iPad which they still sell for some reason. And because of this the amount of iPad releases appeared to be trending up, not down. Just in 2022 Apple refreshed all the iPads except for the Mini: they gave us a new cheap iPad, a new iPad Air, and a new iPad Pro.

So to not see a single new iPad in 2023 is quite odd. And I thought about it and thought about it and… I think this is a sign that Apple is having trouble refreshing the iPad. The iPads are in trouble. And here’s why.

So the first thing you might think is ‘Of course there are no new iPads, they’re good enough already.’ Are they though? I wrote a piece a while back titled Samsung is making Apple look bad which focused a lot on the iPad versus Samsung’s tablet.

I always expected the iPad to eventually be waterproof. And now that Samsung has beat them to it it’s just…. so disappointing.

This year Apple is rumoured to be bringing a periscope camera to the iPhone. Well, that’s nice, but it’s too little too late. And now the competition has leapfrogged Apple again with watches with more battery life and a tablet that is waterproof.

Apple definitely has room to improve the iPad. Just give them an OLED display and make them waterproof. But they haven’t done that. Why?

Well let’s look at the last iPads we ever got, specifically the iPad Pro and Air. Two years ago we got some big iPad news when it was announced that the iPad Pro would be getting the M1 chip. Who could forget the over-the-top trailer of Tim Cook breaking into his own building?

I was surprised when this happened because the M1 was designed for the Mac. It was not designed for the iPad, a device with a smaller battery and, as some have pointed out, not a lot to use that processing power on.

There are many reasons Apple might have opted to take the M1 chip and put it in the iPad. It could simplify logistics as they don’t have to make a beefier variant of the iPhone chip anymore. It could help differentiate the pro iPads from the cheap iPads.

But whatever the case I think Apple made a big mistake with this M1 chip transition because now the iPad Pro and Air (as the iPad Air now uses M1) are tied to the Mac upgrade cycle and the Mac’s M-series chips.

The Mac chips are designed first and foremost for the Macs, not the iPads. And, in fact, this has recently been seen in the M3 unveiling. After the M3 was launched I pointed out some problems with it here:

The first warning sign was the battery life. The M3 MacBook Pro gets significantly worse battery life compared to last year’s 16-inch MacBook Pros.

The M3 chip appears to be getting significantly worse battery life than the M2. And some people are guessing it runs hotter too. After all every single Mac to get the M3 so far has a fan in it. Will M3 come to Macs without a fan? Possibly. And then you have to ask, “Will M3 come to iPads that have an even smaller battery?”

I don’t know if they can. Of course they can always cut down the chip but Apple’s chip team are being stretched very thin. They used to have an entire company produce chips for them: Intel. But now they’re doing it all in-house. So each year they need a new iPhone chip, a new M chip, a new M Pro chip, a new M Max chip, and a new M Ultra chip. And then there are the chips that go in the Apple Watch and other accessories. That’s a lot of chips. There was even another M chip that would be two M Ultra chips glued together. They killed that one though. Maybe because the performance didn’t scale, maybe there wasn’t enough demand, maybe the yields were too low, who knows.

So putting M3 in an iPad is going to be a challenge. Of course Apple could just not upgrade the chip. But I don’t recall a time when Apple did that. Every year it has to have a faster chip. And if they don’t upgrade the chip it might look a bit bad. People are already complaining that the only upgrade to the iPad Pro (other than the M2) is pressure sensitivity. Could you imagine if they simply had not updated the chip? It might even be better to not release an update.

OK, that’s the iPad Pro and Air. What about the cheap iPads? I suspect they haven’t been updated for a similar reason: Apple can’t make new chips for them. Then there’s the iPad Mini but the last time that was updated was over two years ago so it’s not that unusual for it not to get an update.

So what’s going to happen to the iPads now? The obvious solution is that Apple cuts down the M3 chip and puts it in the iPads but that’s a lot of work. The MacBook Airs are waiting for that too. Or they could just bump up the chip in some tiny way like adding more memory. That’s what happened to the iPad 7. But I think ultimately Apple is going to have to start to reevaluate their iPad strategy. Do they want to put the best hardware in them or do they want to pump them out every year?

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