Politics

The Increase In Minority Populations May Not Help Democrats In Future Elections

Minority populations are growing in red states, not blue states

There was more bad news from the census. Not only is population falling in traditionally blue states and rising in traditionally red states, but the increase in growth in the minority population that was supposed to help Democrats is happening in red states.

At first glance this would seem to give credibility to radical Republicans like Tucker Carlson who preach that minorities will replace whites in the US. But the reality is that minority populations are still too small in red states to significantly affect the outcome of elections.

In the red states with rising populations of minority voters, Democrats are not able to win the votes of enough conservative white voters to flip the states to blue or even purple.

To make matters worse, the shifting demographics in the US, with populations moving from the economically depressed Northern states that have traditionally supported Democrats to the economically vibrant southern and western states that have traditionally supported Republicans, has resulted in increasing the number of electoral votes for those red states, reducing the number of electoral votes for the blue states with falling populations.

In plain English, the advantage that Republican candidates already enjoy in the Electoral College will increase.

Why is this a problem? In 2016 Trump lost the popular vote but won in the Electoral College. In 2020, Biden’s victory would have been reduced from 306–232 electoral votes to 303–235 electoral votes. It would not have changed the outcome of the election because Biden won the popular vote in enough states.

But if Biden had not won the popular vote by such a large margin, Trump could have won again in the electoral college despite losing the popular vote.

This is not unique. In the 2000 election, Bush lost the popular vote but won the electoral vote. Yes, I know the outcome of that election is controversial, but my point is that Trump’s unlikely victory was not a one-off event.

It is something that we need to be concerned about. And another reason why we need to get rid of the Electoral College.

Republicans are making it even more difficult for Democrats to flip red states with the raft of new voter suppression legislation that is being passed in those red states. This has the effect of negating the increase in minority voters in red states by making it more difficult for them to vote.

We also need to consider the makeup of the minority populations that are increasing. They are Hispanic, Asian-American and multiracial. The minority group that has been the biggest supporters of Democrats has been Black voters. According to the census, the population of African Americans remained steady.

Democrats have only been able to win 60% — 65% of the Hispanic, Asian-American and multi-racial votes. Another reason why the party has had trouble flipping red states.

So that’s the bad news.

Here’s the good news: Joe Biden’s economic agenda.

Both his infrastructure plan and family plan will directly and positively impact all voters’ lives. Republicans are doing their best to prevent passage of Biden’s programs but good ol’ Chuck Schumer has already gotten clearance from the Senate Parliamentarian to use the budget reconciliation trick twice more this year.

Budget reconciliation allows the Senate to pass budgets without being filibustered. Because the Democrats have 50 seats plus the VP to cast the tie-breaking vote, the Republicans cannot prevent them from passing their budgets.

Democrats have already used reconciliation to get their Pandemic Relief bill passed. Now they want to use it again to get both the infrastructure and family plans passed because both involve the budget.

The reason that they can’t use reconciliation to pass the voting act is that it has nothing to do with the budget and so it is subject to filibuster.

Sorry, the Senate has lots of arcane rules. The easiest way to figure this out is to use the money test. Does the bill require money to be spent? If yes, then reconciliation can be used. If no, then the filibuster applies.

The easiest way out of this thicket is to get rid of the filibuster.

Back to the subject at hand.

If Biden’s two bills are passed, then people’s lives, i.e. voters of both parties lives, will start to improve. There will be more jobs. There will be childcare so that both parents can work. There will be paid leave to care for sick family members. Broadband will be available to everyone which will make working from home easier for those who wish to work remotely.

You get the picture.

Once people’s lives improve they are more likely to vote for Democrats who want to continue these improvements rather than Republicans who want to roll back the changes and more taking us all back to the 50s.

Nobody wants to go backwards. We want to move forwards into a brighter future.