The Impact of the Trump-Orban Meeting & Global Energy Topics on World Affairs
This story was originally published in Areas & Producers
This has been a crazy, crazy week for world affairs! The meeting between former US president Donald Trump and Hungary’s Prime Minister Victor Orban was all over social media, but, this meeting was likely overshadowed by the raucous developments between Russia and Ukraine.
It what appears to be a weekly contest for the global public’s attention, the Russia-Ukraine war and Red Sea attacks — under the backdrop of a strong Israeli offensive on the Gaza Strip toward Hamas — are accelerating the impact on the US presidential election in ways never seen before. I mean who would’ve thought that Trump would meet Orban just a few weeks after his official win? I was a little surprised by this action. Though I am not surprised that it was carried out in the first place. Just the timing did not seem right now me.
And other people disagree with my opinions on this Trump-Orban meeting. Like Robert Honeyman who responded to my original article about this meeting of the minds. Here’s what he wrote in response to it:
I definitely like how he called them out as “bullies”. I had not thought of it that way before. Indeed, this pair of a former US leader and current Hungarian leader reveals to the world that old habits are hard to break.
In my view, Trump is testing the waters during his comeback to the US political stage; and he’s not known for a broad foreign policy background. This mean that a public figure like Donald Trump doesn’t really know how to assess the US public opinion on foreign affairs, so going to a leader like Orban just makes him feel more at home, since he met with other controversial leaders during his first term.
Explore more content about the impact of the Trump-Orban Meeting & Global Energy Topics on World Affairs in the publication Areas & Producers below.
Does Donald Trump see a tactical advantage in siding with Hungary’s PM Victor Orban?
This story was written by another Medium writer Oksana Kukurudza’s Sunflowers Rarely Break who is always giving insights into the current affairs revolving around the war in Ukraine. This story is particularly relevant to the upcoming battle between incumbent Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump for the 2024 US presidential election.
It is clear that the military aid for Ukraine is a divisive issue in American society and politics. Read her story to know more about it here.
Now, here are my thoughts on the article.
“Trump allegedly told Victor Orban in a closed-door meeting that once elected, he would cut off financial and military funding to Ukraine. Many of us are not surprised this was his plan all along. Trump has an affinity for aligning with dictators as displayed during his first term in office when he met with North Korea’s Leader, Kim Jong Un multiple times and sided with Vladimir Putin on Russian election interference.”
I agree that Trump runs on a counter-culture trend in the American foreign policy agenda — i.e. by courting adversarial leaders and governments. However, this meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban is a little different. Right now, the NATO agenda is key to bolstering a Ukrainian military success against Russian aggression. According to much of the public information, Ukraine is winning in the Black Sea. Though I question the optimistic outlook from these reports analyzing short-term results.
The long-term outlook in the Black Sea is a completely different story. And I argue that this is why Donald Trump is seeking to forge ties with Hungarian PM Orban ahead of the fierce US political election. Hungary has been in the news a lot lately, for both its domestic and foreign affairs, but the biggest headline of them all has been their reluctance to accept Sweden into the NATO alliance. Trump sees a tactical advantage is siding with Orban, as many Americans are growing weary of the war effort in Ukraine.
“However, Trump will not win an election with only Republican voters. He will need Independents as well to beat Joe Biden in November.
If Trump wins and cuts off Ukraine aid leading to Ukraine falling to Russia, which NATO country will be next? Could it be Latvia that has a significant Russian population needing to be protected? Could it be Poland for payback because of Poland’s unconditional support for Ukraine in the war so far?”
Not only will Donald Trump need to tap into the Independents voter base, he will also be facing a completely new Republican voter base due to map re-districting and traditional Republicans leaving the party in face of a Trump 2.0. Many traditional Republicans did not actually support Donald Trump’s agenda in 2016, but the thought of a Hiliary Clinton as President of the United States was just too daunting for many of them to fathom.
Latvia and Poland are likely to be on Russia’s radar for a military strategy in the Baltic Sea. I have argued many times that Russia will still maintain an advantage over the Black Sea with strategic influence and territorial control. What’s next for them to do? Controlling more of the Baltic Sea would give Russia a much wider maritime base to stage attacks or at least control vital shipping lanes traversing the North Sea and Arctic Sea. In essence, this is the economic strategy of Russia’s Arctic Strategy.
“A war in Taiwan or an Eastern NATO country will eventually come to our shores. The United States has too many military assets abroad to not eventually be targeted. We should be looking for ways to prevent another Pearl Harbor, not walking blindly again toward one.
Voting for Trump based on his isolationist policies is just a DUMB idea that will lead to Americans paying more later as a result.”
I am definitely interested to see how the Trump team’s isolationist agenda comes to fruition in light of current events. 2024 is a world apart from 2016. In 2016, there was no Russian aggression; there was no October 7 attack; and there was no Hong Kong National Security Law. The latter has probably been forgotten by most people following current affairs. China’s new national security law has put international business risk in the Asia-Pacific at an all-time high. And yet, the same could be said about the United States and European Union’s sanctions regimes.
It’s devastating that global trade has become the focal point of geopolitical tensions. And yet, it hasn’t stopped wars from happening across the world. There are so many volatile events that I don’t think the world will ever reach the stability of 2016. If anything, I would wish to return to 2016: this was before the US-China trade war and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Remember hearing Trump’s jabs at NATO countries about increasing defense spending to 2%? Well, that’s largely irrelevant in the event Russia is willing to go to war with NATO forces.
Russia’s Exports of Seaborne Crude Oil Are Rising in 2024
According to a report by Oilprice.com Russia’s exports of seaborne crude oil are already going up at the beginning of 2024, registering 3.7 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first full week of March 4–11. This amount is the highest level of exports for the whole year thus far.
While there are likely to be many reasons for this uptick in crude oil exports, due to both political and market factors, it was noted that the Far East port of Kozmino in Russia had contributed a larger share of the volumes. This important port had been offline due to severe weather concerns.
This event reminds me to share with everyone what happened to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and how Russia disrupted crude oil exports from the pipeline in 2022. I say this because it just goes to show how much influence Russia will have on the global oil and gas markets going forward.
If we’re already seeing a rise in demand for Russian seaborne crude oil, then there’s probably going to be more of it to come. This is all occurring under the backdrop of an escalation of Ukrainian drone attacks on key Russian oil refineries.
Russia is also still causing problems with the European Union (EU) over its energy policies. The EU has beefed up the sanctions regimes in order to target Russia’s oil and gas revenues to halt its military power during the invasion of Ukraine. It is an ongoing concern about how the EU will deal with Russia and its future energy concerns. Austria is a case in point.
Austria is significant to the sanctions regimes on Russia. Because Austria, through its national oil and gas company OMV, relies on Russian supplies of oil and gas to feed a network of fuel retail stations throughout Central and Eastern Europe.
Moreover, Austrian government leaders stated their interest in reducing their energy ties with Russian companies, notably Russia’s state-owned gas giant, Gazprom. The latter would virtually mean that OMV would have to exit long-term gas import contracts with Gazprom and other entities.
However, OMV has resolutely determined to increase its business ties with Gazprom, leading the EU members to question whether Austria’s stance of neutrality is the right approach going forward. Austria in not a NATO member, and it has historically taken a neutral approach to Russia.
BP-ADNOC Deal for NewMed Energy on Hold Due to Israel’s Attacks in the Gaza Strip
According to several reports, the highly anticipated deal for Israel’s NewMed Energy is coming to a halt due to the escalations of attacks in the Gaza Strip. The deal had been initially reached by British Petroleum and UAE’s ADNOC for $2 billion joint purchase of the offshore energy project located in Israel’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the Eastern Mediterranean.
It was reported that NewMed Energy’s statement on the suspension of the deal was due to “uncertainty created in the external environment.” This is referring to the Israel-Hamas War, on the one hand, but also the ongoing risks occurring around the Red Sea with Houthi Rebels indiscriminately attacking vessels and cargo ships in the maritime area.
The Israel-Hamas War is causing widespread concerns for global trade and commodities markets. Gold prices have been going up, while oil prices have been hanging on a thread in anticipation of how the OPEC+ policy to cut oil production will respond to the Middle East regional tension.
UAE’s ADNOC has already been popping up in the news a lot this year. Most notably due to the fact that COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber, who is also chief of the UAE’s oil and gas giant ADNOC, stated his positive outlook on the global energy sector. Several energy leaders and business executives were attending the World Government Summit in Dubai where Sultan al-Jaber addressed the audience with words of praise for COP 28’s results.
ADNOC also reached a crucial deal in the petrochemicals market whereby Austria’s OMV and ADNOC reached final terms for the $20 billion deal to combine forces in a merger of petrochemical assets, including each companies’ stakes in Borealis and Borouge.
War and energy are on the minds of so many people right now. Conflict rages on from the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas to the Black Sea between Russia and Ukraine, as well as between armed groups in several countries such as Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Meanwhile, the Saudi-led OPEC+ meetings are stirring up the pot of international politics by cutting output of global oil supplies during Red Sea attacks.
In hindsight the attack on October 7 was successful in getting the world’s attention; in other words, shifting the international perception from the Russia-Ukraine War to the Middle East Conflict. Using foresight will tell a completely different story about the big picture in International Relations.