The Gulf Kingdoms’ Patience With Washington Is Waning.

Summary

The Gulf Kingdoms, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are reluctant to engage with President Biden's requests for increased oil production amidst the Ukraine crisis, reflecting strained relations with the U.S.

Abstract

Amidst the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions, including a ban on Russian oil, the United States has sought the assistance of the UAE and Saudi Arabia to stabilize global oil prices by increasing their oil production. However, leaders from these Gulf Kingdoms have declined calls from the White House, signaling a growing rift in their relationship with the U.S. This tension stems from President Biden's previous criticism of Saudi Arabia, the revival of the Iran nuclear deal, and U.S. policies regarding the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The UAE and Saudi Arabia, key members of OPEC+ with significant oil reserves, have the capacity to influence oil markets, but their current stance suggests a reevaluation of their alliance with the U.S., prompting the Biden administration to consider the terms that might persuade these Middle Eastern powers to support a united front against Russia.

Opinions

The UAE and Saudi Arabia are displeased with President Biden's approach, particularly his campaign promise to treat Saudi Arabia as a "pariah" state.
There is frustration over the U.S. reviving the Iran nuclear deal and not designating the Houthi rebels as terrorists, which impacts the security concerns of the Gulf Kingdoms.
The Gulf Kingdoms' refusal to increase oil production is seen as a strategic move to assert their independence and negotiate better terms with the U.S.
The White House may have underestimated the complexity of its relationship with the Gulf Kingdoms and the impact of its foreign policy decisions on these strategic partnerships.

The Gulf Kingdoms’ Patience With Washington Is Waning.

Emirati and Saudi officials decline calls from the White House amidst Ukraine crisis.

Al Reem Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates l Photo by Kamil Rogalinski on Unsplash

Leaders of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have declined repeated requests from the White House to arrange urgent calls with President Biden; as the United States and its allies scramble to contain a spike in energy costs as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia have oil reserves which are amongst the largest in the world. They therefore, have the ability to easily pump more oil to reduce concerns surrounding the cost and supply of oil in the wake of the conflict in Europe. However, the relationship between Washington and the gulf’s kingdoms, is mired with complications — many of which, have been eroding the ties between the two for some time now.

The United States and its partners formally banned Russian oil as direct sanction against the Russian Federation on Tuesday. This ban immediately caused the price of oil to surge to $130 a barrel — the highest in 14 years.

However, OPEC+, of which Russia is a member, declined to raise their production levels despite requests from the west. The UAE and Saudi Arabia hold decisive positions within OPEC+ and the two nations are the only global suppliers with the capacity to pump enough oil to calm the surge in price.

The White House is now scrambling to restore its relations with the two countries in an effort to stifle the crisis.

The truth is, that President Biden created this rift himself. During the campaign trail, Biden said he would treat Saudi Arabia as a “pariah” state, claiming “very little social redeeming value in the present government in Saudi Arabia”. The Saudi’s have been getting more and more disappointed with its relationship with the U.S. since Biden’s inauguration. Additionally, tensions have been raised since the revival of the Iran nuclear deal under the Biden administration; as well as the question of legal immunity for Prince Mohammed, who is facing legal retaliation over the murder of Jamal Khashoggi four years ago.

And, while there have been no direct shots taken at the UAE, there is one issue where both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have a joint interest (and growing frustration) with— Yemen.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels — financed and backed by the Iran — have deployed cruise and ballistic missiles targeting the United Arab Emirates in January of 2022, most of which were intercepted, according to the Emirati Ambassador to the United States. This was the first time that the UAE had announced any domestic security threats and that it had intercepted missiles launched at them.

The UAE is a coalition partner alongside Saudi Arabia, who is fighting the Houthis in Yemen. In 2019, the UAE largely withdrew its military presence. It does however, continue to support the Yemeni armed forces. The UAE has long left the Yemeni war, but has called on Washington to reinstate the Houthi’s designation as a terrorist organization, which was revoked by President Biden. Washington's refusal to to do, has been a major driver for the UAE’s relations with the U.S. to become eroded.

Given these circumstances, it is no surprise that both Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the UAE’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan have been unavailable to Biden this past week.

The Biden administration made one crucial mistake — it assumed the gulf nations would always be a foreign policy tool. But that is not the case. And, they banned Russian oil on the assumption that the UAE and Saudi Arabia would overlook the strains on their relationship with the U.S. and continue playing second fiddle.

The support of the Middle East powerhouses is vital if the west is to create a united front against Russia. Whether or not they will provide that support depends on what terms would bring them to the table. After the shift in American policy toward the Middle East in the past few years, it is more likely a question of “will they even come to the table?” as opposed to “what will bring them to the table?”.