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Abstract

tries. Teenagers in the US are far less likely to be giving birth now. A good thing.It would appear the drop is due to factors affecting women in the US. They may feel constrained by limited parental leave or are affected by the low availability of childcare. Women in the US are lucky if they get six weeks of parental leave — which would be considered Draconian in most developed countries.US women are facing a trade-off. They are choosing between having more children or keeping their job. In most developed countries, that isn’t a consideration.<h2 id="70e2">Twelve Million (12,000,000)</h2>Dr Hannah Ritchie is a Senior Researcher at the University of Oxford and the Head of Research at Our World in Data. She has looked at the figures.We know from a lack of testing or under-reporting that we probably missed a lot of deaths from COVID. In some countries, we know that testing has not been thorough enough to pick up all of the COVID infections and therefore deaths.There is the additional issue that some people might have died after receiving positive test results and therefore been counted as a COVID death, but maybe they died from other causes.Overcapacity at hospitals and medical centres may have resulted in people dying from other illnesses and injuries. While they didn’t die from COVID, their deaths may have been linked in some way by the changes brought about by the pandemic.Rather than tying in each death to a COVID infection, Dr Ritchie counted any death from any cause and asked if there are more or fewer than in a typical year.This is useful because it is hard to determine what was a direct COVID death and what wasn’t.She estimated the number of excess deaths caused by COVID in 2021 at 12 million. The 12,000,000 represents the number of additional people who have died compared to those we would expect to see in a normal year.We have had an extraordinary couple of years, medically speaking, but can we attribute all of those extra deaths to COVID?Dr Ritchie is quick to point out we should not assign all of those extra deaths directly to COVID. However, measuring extra deaths is an alternative w

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ay to estimate the impact of a pandemic.The 12 million figure takes in only deaths in 2021. It is estimated that the excess deaths for the whole of the COVID pandemic are 18 million — a figure that will continue to rise.Effectively, the reported death toll from the COVID pandemic is actually three to four times higher than our governments are reporting. This is the true impact.<h2 id="4c1d">420.01 parts per million</h2>The Mouna Loa Observatory in Hawaii sits on the summit of a volcano. One measurement the observatory makes is the carbon dioxide (C02) in the atmosphere in parts per million (ppm).In 2021, for every million molecules floating around in the air at the observatory, 420 were CO2.These molecules are too small for the human eye to see but the air is made up of a finely tuned balance of gases. Tip that balance and things could go horribly wrong.The research station has been monitoring any change in this balance since the 1950s. This year is the first time that CO2 has exceeded 420 ppm.Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased 50% compared to pre-industrial concentrations.Despite the slowdown in economic activity because of the COVID measures, CO2 concentrations in our atmosphere have reached a record high.The pandemic saw us make a reduction of 5% in carbon dioxide emissions. But that means the concentration of CO2 in our atmosphere is still increasing.If the atmosphere were a bathtub, we have turned the tap down 1/20th of a turn. So the water is still flowing in and the level of water is still going up.Our leaders, industry heads, you and I have all looked at the bathtub, saw that it is about to overflow and instead of taking action, we have walked out and shut the door behind us.A number of other items, <a href="https://malkymcewan.medium.com/">read more here</a> and/or sign up to get <a href="https://malkymcewan.medium.com/subscribe">an email when Malky publishes</a>. And if you haven’t joined Medium, I challenge you to earn money from writing yourself by <a href="https://medium.com/age-of-awareness/joining%20here.">joining here.</a></article></body>

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly — 2021 in Numbers

A look at the most concerning, peculiar, and extraordinary numbers

For the last year, economist Tim Harford has been looking at the numbers and making sense of the statistics. His More or Less podcast has examined the claims, debunked the nonsense and helped us get to the core of matters.

He’s researched the most concerning, peculiar, or quite frankly, the most extraordinary numbers of the year. This is what he came up with:

Fertility rate 1.64

When the world went into lockdown, there were widespread predictions of a baby boom. What else are you going to do stuck in your house all day?

Marina Adshade, an economics professor at the Vancouver School of Economics, has debunked these predictions as nonsense. She has identified a figure of 1.64 for the total fertility rate for the United States in 2021.

The fertility rate is a projection for how many children a woman will have over her lifetime. As forecasts go, this number can be wrong, but it gives a general sense of what is happening with trends in different countries.

A fertility rate of 1.64, without considering net migration, means your population is shrinking. You need about 2.1 children per woman for a broadly stable population — the reason it’s over two is not all children survive into adulthood.

What is striking about the 1.64 US rate is it isn’t low. For example, Canada’s fertility rate has hovered around 1.64 for the last 25 years. But the 1.64 rate is unusual for the United States.

Ten years ago the United States rate was 2, so it has seen a rapid decline. This is a huge demographic shift.

There are several things causing the decline. Ten years ago, the US had a really high teen birth rate, especially compared to other developed countries. Teenagers in the US are far less likely to be giving birth now. A good thing.

It would appear the drop is due to factors affecting women in the US. They may feel constrained by limited parental leave or are affected by the low availability of childcare. Women in the US are lucky if they get six weeks of parental leave — which would be considered Draconian in most developed countries.

US women are facing a trade-off. They are choosing between having more children or keeping their job. In most developed countries, that isn’t a consideration.

Twelve Million (12,000,000)

Dr Hannah Ritchie is a Senior Researcher at the University of Oxford and the Head of Research at Our World in Data. She has looked at the figures.

We know from a lack of testing or under-reporting that we probably missed a lot of deaths from COVID. In some countries, we know that testing has not been thorough enough to pick up all of the COVID infections and therefore deaths.

There is the additional issue that some people might have died after receiving positive test results and therefore been counted as a COVID death, but maybe they died from other causes.

Overcapacity at hospitals and medical centres may have resulted in people dying from other illnesses and injuries. While they didn’t die from COVID, their deaths may have been linked in some way by the changes brought about by the pandemic.

Rather than tying in each death to a COVID infection, Dr Ritchie counted any death from any cause and asked if there are more or fewer than in a typical year.

This is useful because it is hard to determine what was a direct COVID death and what wasn’t.

She estimated the number of excess deaths caused by COVID in 2021 at 12 million. The 12,000,000 represents the number of additional people who have died compared to those we would expect to see in a normal year.

We have had an extraordinary couple of years, medically speaking, but can we attribute all of those extra deaths to COVID?

Dr Ritchie is quick to point out we should not assign all of those extra deaths directly to COVID. However, measuring extra deaths is an alternative way to estimate the impact of a pandemic.

The 12 million figure takes in only deaths in 2021. It is estimated that the excess deaths for the whole of the COVID pandemic are 18 million — a figure that will continue to rise.

Effectively, the reported death toll from the COVID pandemic is actually three to four times higher than our governments are reporting. This is the true impact.

420.01 parts per million

The Mouna Loa Observatory in Hawaii sits on the summit of a volcano. One measurement the observatory makes is the carbon dioxide (C02) in the atmosphere in parts per million (ppm).

In 2021, for every million molecules floating around in the air at the observatory, 420 were CO2.

These molecules are too small for the human eye to see but the air is made up of a finely tuned balance of gases. Tip that balance and things could go horribly wrong.

The research station has been monitoring any change in this balance since the 1950s. This year is the first time that CO2 has exceeded 420 ppm.

Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased 50% compared to pre-industrial concentrations.

Despite the slowdown in economic activity because of the COVID measures, CO2 concentrations in our atmosphere have reached a record high.

The pandemic saw us make a reduction of 5% in carbon dioxide emissions. But that means the concentration of CO2 in our atmosphere is still increasing.

If the atmosphere were a bathtub, we have turned the tap down 1/20th of a turn. So the water is still flowing in and the level of water is still going up.

Our leaders, industry heads, you and I have all looked at the bathtub, saw that it is about to overflow and instead of taking action, we have walked out and shut the door behind us.

A number of other items, read more here and/or sign up to get an email when Malky publishes. And if you haven’t joined Medium, I challenge you to earn money from writing yourself by joining here.