The First Noel: Righting a Christmas Wrong

Nerlens Noel needs a new home. What’s the right trade?

Unicorns. Everyone in the NBA world is talking about them lately. Kristaps Porzingis is a unicorn. Anthony Davis is a unicorn (and apparently is also Kevin McHale). Giannis Antetokounmpo is a unicorn. These players are athletic freaks, the kind of players you dreamed up in NBA 2K that were never supposed to exist in real life. Seven-three white dude with a 99-rated three-point shot and skinny as a rail? Absolutely. Six-eleven point guard with a ten-foot* wingspan (*approximate) rated 90 or higher at every skill — why not? Anything was possible in 2K, and now it is in real-life NBA too.

But there’s another unicorn out there that has been forgotten, wounded, bandaged, abandoned on the bench. At seven-foot (or eight, counting the high-top fade) 200-pounds with a three-foot-plus vertical and some of the quickest hands in basketball, he is every bit the physical freak of some of the other unicorns being celebrated, but he is largely forgotten in NBA circles, waiting to be freed from his roster logjam by a magical trade.

His name is Nerlens Noel.

To say that Nerlens Noel has had a bumpy professional basketball career ride so far is more than a little understatement. Noel dominated in his one year at the University of Kentucky, stepping into the shoes of Anthony Davis and filling the role more than admirably especially on the defensive end. He was the likely No. 1 pick until he tore his ACL in his 24th game and missed the rest of the season, falling to the Philadelphia 76ers at sixth in a draft-day trade for Jrue Holiday. The injury (and the Sixers’ tanking plans) led to Noel missing his entire first season in the NBA.

In his rookie season, still at age 20, Noel burst onto the scene with a Swiss- army-knife season averaging 9.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.9 blocks per game. No individual stat stands out there but the compilation is pretty unique — just 52 other times in NBA history has a player put up 10 points, 8 boards, and 1.5 assists, steals, and blocks over a full season, and Noel did it coming off an ACL tear as a rookie for the 18–64 Philadelphia 76ers. On a list dotted with names like Hakeem Olajuwon (14 times!!), David Robinson, Kevin Garnett, and Chris Webber, Noel was the youngest ever to make such well-rounded contributions.

Noel continued to fill up the box score his sophomore year, but the knee issues lingered, costing him 15 games. This year, the same knee has been inflamed and cost him again. He has played just 25 minutes all season and now has been benched indefinitely. He may play again for the 76ers, but he will not be featured — the franchise is clearly ready to move on.

But that incredible rookie season must not be forgotten. Noel was only 20 and was still coming back from an injury and learning to play a game with professionals (albeit with mostly amateur teammates), and the numbers he put up were in 30 minutes per game as his playing time was monitored closely. Noel is one of just seven players in NBA history to have a season averaging two assists, two steals, and two blocks per 36 minutes. Just take a look at the elite company he shares:

Not a bad list to join at the tender age of 20. Since then, Noel has increased his scoring output and shooting percentages and become a better rebounder, all while keeping his defensive numbers through the roof. And he’s still just 22, the age of a college senior or a traditional NBA rookie.

Of course for all of Noel’s unicornesque upside, the risks are clear as well. The injuries have not gone away. A team that trades for Noel might be getting 25 to 30 minutes a game for 60 games a season. They’re also getting Noel for only two-thirds of a season since his valuable rookie deal expires in six months. That’s the problem with drafting a player that sits out his first year. Now Noel will be looking for a new deal in July, one that could well weigh in around $12 to $15 million a year for the next three or four years if his deal aligns with those signed last summer. That’s a hefty price tag and a sizable risk for a team to take on a player that hasn’t proven he can stay healthy and has never played winning basketball at a professional level.

Or is it a bargain? Noel could be the perfect rim-protecting center in a smaller, faster 2016 basketball world, and he can play power forward and protect the weakside for teams with more traditional centers. He hasn’t developed a shot yet but he also hasn’t really had the chance to do so. And if he suddenly plays well the rest of the season or even logs meaningful playoff minutes, the price tag goes even higher. Noel is a restricted free agent (RFA), and with the rising salary cap, it’s possible some team could even try to max him. The risk is huge, but so is the payoff.

The weird thing is that Nerlens Noel is actually the exact sort of player a franchise like the Philadelphia 76ers should be looking to trade for. For a team going nowhere this season, why not take a six-month shot on a guy with the upside of Marcus Camby or Ben Wallace, especially for a team with plenty of room to offer Noel a big contract or match a lopsided RFA offer? Really, if Noel were on another team, Philly would be an intriguing trade destination.

But the Sixers have a logjam of big men and are ready to move on, so it’s time to whip out ESPN’s NBA Trade Machine and find the right deal. And it’s tough to find a match. Philadelphia will be looking for young potential on cost-controlled contracts or draft picks that afford them the same opportunity, and a team trading for Noel needs to have immediate minutes for a rim protector and money to pay him this summer.

Philadelphia is probably not going to get much at this point. A decent pick or a player with untapped potential may have to do. So what sort of deals could be out there?

Noel for a first round pick

Charlotte

Roy Hibbert is included to match salary, and lets give Charlotte’s pick top-10 protection just in case things fall completely apart in the East. Depending on what you think of the Hornets, this is probably the Sixers best chance to get a pick somewhere in the teens, maybe the low lottery if they’re lucky.

Charlotte has needed a rim protector ever since Bismack Biyombo left, so Noel fills a need, but Charlotte is a small-market team and just spent a ton of money this summer extending Nic Batum, Marvin Williams, and Cody Zeller so it’s hard to see them splashing again on Noel. There’s a high risk he could leave them high and dry after six months.

Houston

K.J. McDaniels is included only to match salary, though imagine the cold, icy stares he would get in his return to Philly. Houston’s pick would need to be unprotected but also looks like it would end up somewhere around the 25th pick, so this is a pretty low return. It’s a way to get an immediate pick, even a low one, perhaps hope the Rockets implode with injuries and the pick falls back into the teens.

Houston needs defensive help, especially with Clint Capela injured, and Noel is the high-upside sort of player a savvy general manager like Daryl Morey loves to take a gamble on — a healthy Noel could cover a lot of James Harden’s and Ryan Anderson’s defensive sins at the rim. Houston has the flexibility to sign Noel this summer if things work out, and Philadelphia and Houston have worked together plenty in the past, but this might not be enough for Philly to move on from Noel.

Noel for a few decent prospects with upside

Toronto

The Raptors have needed a power forward awhile now, and they have missed Biyombo’s rim protection this season. With the injuries starting to pile up in Cleveland, maybe they’d want to make a run at things. It’s unlikely they’d give Philly a starter-caliber point in Cory Joseph, but maybe they would give up a couple of other young talents. Delon Wright isn’t getting playing time behind Lowry, DeRozan, and Joseph anyway, and Caboclo is still two years away.

But Toronto already has so much invested in big men already, even without Biyombo. Jonas Valanciunas is a good starting NBA center, so Noel would be used mostly as a power forward and that could really clog up Toronto’s spacing. Plus Noel has a similar skill set to Patrick Patterson, and Toronto has invested draft picks in Jakob Poeltl and Bebe Nogueira. The Raptors’ priority this summer will be maxing out Kyle Lowry, so there may not be room for Noel. Toronto still needs a power forward but this may not be the right fit.

Cleveland

Speaking of Cleveland injuries, could the Cavs get into the mix? Birdman is out for the season, Mozgov is gone, and the Cavs big man rotation is starting to get pretty thin. Noel feels like a perfect fit, and he could play a jackknife role off the bench and then feature more in a series where a flexible big man that can guard the pick-and-roll is needed — one like Golden State in the Finals. A healthy Noel is a weapon LeBron’s Cavs have never had.

But Noel may only be a rental for Cleveland. The Cavs already have the highest salary in the league. They’d have Noel’s Bird rights and the ability to match any RFA deal, but their position in the repeater luxury tax means they could end up paying four or five dollars for every dollar Noel actually makes. Suddenly a $12 million bargain deal could cost Dan Gilbert well over $50 million each year. The Cavs want to win, but do they want to win that badly?

There are other problems. It’s the lowest return for Philadelphia of anything here. Jordan McRae is great in Summer League but may not be much in the NBA, and tiny Kay Felder is fun to watch but guys his size have almost no history of sticking. Plus the Stepien rule prevents Cleveland from trading any first round pick before 2020, and that’s a risky endeavor for both sides — that could just be another 30th pick four drafts away for Philadelphia, or LeBron could finally turn mortal (or leave) and the pick could be golden. Four years is a lifetime in the NBA. Plus Cleveland may actually need McRae now, with the J.R. Smith injury. It’s a tough deal on both sides, but maybe that’s what makes it worth considering.

Boston

No trade article is complete without at least one Boston offer. The Celtics have a ton of assets and are fun to include in any speculation. Boston loves Terry Rozier but they have at least three better guards in Thomas, Bradley, and Smart. Perhaps his speed and raw ability could tempt Philadelphia, along with a six-month look at James Young. The Sixers have plenty of big men, so guards like Rozier and Young fit the M.O., and the pick received here would likely be relatively valuable high in the second round.

Noel would be yet another defensive weapon in the Celtic arsenal, and while they have a lot of big men options right now, perhaps Noel is a replacement for Amir Johnson or Tyler Zeller after the season. Boston has the capital to sign him, but they want to save their money for marquee players, and Noel probably doesn’t fit particularly well next to Al Horford.

For Philly, Rozier would be the main coup in this trade — and nice a player as he could be, that feels like a tough sell to the fans. Still the fit works and, Ben Simmons aside, it would be nice for the 76ers to finally have a real point guard prospect again.

Noel for a prospect that needs a fresh start

Utah

This may be a strange fit for Utah, but Dante Exum would be a great player for Philadelphia to target. With almost three years left on his rookie deal, and ample room to give him minutes at point guard in Philly, Exum is the perfect sort of prospect they should take a chance on. Noel and Exum have quite a bit in common with their frequent injuries and untapped potential — though it must be noted that Noel has at least looked like a pretty good NBA player at times, which is more than Exum can say so far.

This move would leave the Jazz without a backup or future point guard, but it’s hard to know if Exum really fills either of those roles particularly well for the team. George Hill has been excellent and will be a priority to re-sign this summer. Of course, that’s the problem. Gobert’s extension kicks in this summer, an increase of almost $20 million in expenses, while Gordon Hayward will likely opt out and demand a max deal too. It’s really hard to imagine Utah having enough capital leftover to resign Noel too, especially with Derrick Favors needing an extension next summer as well. Noel would have to be a rental.

Unless he wasn’t a rental at all, but perhaps a replacement and a pivot in plans. Could Noel be a cheaper alternative to Favors and allow Utah to flip Favors in a second deal for a stretch four that could play next to Gobert and Noel? Maybe Noel could be flipped after rehabbing his value for a future point guard or for a Hayward replacement if negotiations go south? It’s a bit of a lateral step to take, but it would give Utah some options. Still, they may not be ready to give up on Exum just yet.

Los Angeles Lakers

It’s really fun to imagine a Lakers core of D’Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle, and Nerlens Noel. Los Angeles has been terrible defensively, and Noel is the sort of guy that can be the linchpin of a top-five NBA defense. Noel would be the perfect modern rim-protecting center next to a small-ball Ingram stretch four, or he plays well with Randle at the four and Ingram at the three more conventionally as well.

Clarkson is a nice young player that will probably never contend for an All-Star spot but he’s a guy any team would be happy to have, and on a very nice contract as well. He’s a bit superfluous in L.A. anyway with how well Nick Young and Lou Williams have been playing, and Gerald Henderson offsets the loss as well. A trade like this could help balance the team and, even with the money doled out to Deng and Mozgov this summer, the Lakers are still in pretty good shape financially.

For Philadelphia, dealing Noel for a player like Jordan Clarkson is one of the lowest ceilings of any deal here but also one of the highest floors. Not every deal nets stars. Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons need other guys to join them on the floor. Jordan Clarkson can be a guy. Every NBA team needs a Jordan Clarkson.

Denver

The Nuggets have a veritable war chest of useful veteran contracts and young players with upside. One player that hasn’t collected on that upside much yet is Emmanuel Mudiay. Now on the one hand, Mudiay is only just barely starting his sophomore campaign in the NBA, but on the other hand this is his third year as a professional after spending a year developing overseas.

The consistency in those numbers above is great if you’re Tim Duncan but not so much if you’re a young player that has yet to show much development. Mudiay is nearly identical to last year in minutes and points per game, but he’s lost a third of his assists and he hasn’t developed at all as a shooter yet. Mudiay can’t even legally drink in the U.S. until March, but you have to wonder if a fresh start could do him well. Philadelphia would be the perfect landing spot for him to log heavy minutes, have time to make plenty of mistakes, and work out the growth curve.

Meanwhile Denver is right in the thick of the playoff hunt and needs more guard minutes for Jamal Murray and Gary Harris. There may not be time to patient with Mudiay right now. Denver’s defense needs all the help it can get, and the Nuggets have the second most cap space of any team so the money isn’t a problem in the near future. Noel could be the right fit next to Denver’s twin centers Jokic and Nurkic if things work right, or he could clog the big man rotation further if it doesn’t. It’s a risk but a calculated one. Noel’s defense could be the spark that helps push Denver into the playoffs, and a Nuggets playoff berth could spark the next big move.

If all else fails, perhaps a Christmas miracle!

Pacers get Noel Lakers get Holiday Knicks get Christmas Sixers get World Peace

Four-way trades make the world go round, especially ones with all the Christmas-themed players.

Indiana gets the defensive big it desperately needs. Liberal Los Angeles gets a little more politically correct for the holiday. New York brings Christmas home to the Rockefeller Center. And antsy Philadelphia fans rest easier this holiday season with just a little world peace.

Merry Christmas, everyone. Trust the process.