The Easiest Upset Pick For Week 2 Of The NFL Season
A serious question to anyone considering picking the Chicago Bears, and the 2.5 points by which they’re favored, over the Denver Broncos this Sunday:
Did you actually see how the Bears looked in the season-opening Thursday Night Football game against the Green Bay Packers last week?
In case you forgot: the Bears scored three points — over the course of the entire game — against a defense that finished with a #29 ranking in overall defensive DVOA last year. The Bears lone score came as as a result of the Packers punting deep from their own side of the field, and with penalty yardage tacked on to the end of the punt return, the Bears started on Green Bay’s 36 yard line (they capitalized on that choice field position by gaining 16 more yards on 6 plays). 9 of the 12 drives the Bears had on offense yielded 25 yards or less.
And somehow, this is the team to whom we’re giving an advantage, despite them playing on the road in an admittedly tough place to play?
In fairness, the betting public is overreacting a lot to Denver’s loss against Oakland on Monday evening — and understandably so, in some sense, because we should be very much alarmed about a team when they lose by more than a touchdown to a certified buffoon like Jon Gruden.
On offense, Denver’s quarterback is now Joe Flacco, who proved he is still very much Joe Flacco (ie, different uniform, but the same general terrible-ness). And Offensive Coordinator Rich Scangarello’s game plan and play calling looked very much like a guy who’s never overseen game-planning or play-calling for an NFL offense. But it was the Broncos defense — or total lackthereof — that really shocked people. Denver couldn’t slow down Derek Carr (something that’s much easier done than said in recent years), couldn’t slow down Josh Jacobs (who became the first running back since LaDainian Tomlinson to have 100+ combined yards and multiple touchdowns in his rookie debut), and couldn’t cover wide receiver Tyrell Williams (six receptions for 105 yards and a touchdown).
And with all of that being said, even with Chicago’s performance on defense last week (they looked like they didn’t miss a beat under new defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano), there’s still one major red flag that we simply can’t look past, no matter how great the Bears’ defense may be and how questionable their opponent might look.
And that red flag is named Mitchell David Trubisky.
We’re just over two years removed from the Chicago Bears throwing away a third- and fourth-round pick to move up in the 2017 NFL Draft, passing on the chance to take Deshaun Watson (LOL) and Patrick Mahomes (LMAO) in the process, and there is a growing contingent of people in Halas Hall with some serious buyer’s remorse.
The narrative around him hasn’t evolved, even in the slightest, since 2017: he’s still more of an athlete playing quarterback, with serious inconsistencies in his field vision, decision-making, and accuracy. He’s still at the ‘panic-if-the-first-option-is-covered’-stage of development at quarterback. The Twitter joke of Trubisky being the quarterback version of Derek Zoolander — ie, he can’t throw to the left — 100% remains true. In his last three NFL games (including the playoffs), Trubisky has thrown a grand total of one touchdown pass.
In fairness to Trubisky (though he doesn’t deserve very much), Bears’ head coach Matt Nagy didn’t do him any favors with the play-calling last week. Generally speaking, Nagy’s offense has the potential to be fun as hell if he had a mostly competent quarterback running it, though his choices last Thursday left a lot to be desired. Running the ball 15 times in a game that was decided by less than a touchdown seems rather egregious — mostly because you have Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, and because the Packers literally came into last Thursday’s game with a game plan of “make Trubisky do quarterback things” … and it worked.
Now, in Week 2, it’ll be Vic Fangio — the new head coach of the Denver Broncos, and the former Bears’ defensive coordinator who got to watch Trubisky up close for the last two years — helping design the game plan to stop Trubisky and the Bears’ offense. If anyone is aware of both the wrinkles in the Bears’ scheme, and the shortcomings in Trubisky’s game, it would be Fangio.
On a slate of Week 2 games where there are some very questionable lines (Are the Tennessee Titans seriously favored over the Indianapolis Colts? Doesn’t the Los Angeles Chargers giving only 2.5 points to the Detroit Lions feel a little low? And why are the Philadelphia Eagles favored by only 1.5 points against the Atlanta Falcons?), i’m sticking with the tried-and-true strategy of picking against bad quarterbacks on the road.
That’s why betting against Chicago — given what we saw of them, and specifically Mitch Trubisky, last week — feels like a no-brainer pick.
Week 2 NFL Picks
Lines courtesy of FootballLocks.com
Tampa Bay at Carolina (-6.5) — pick made Thursday evening Dallas (-5.5) at Washington Indianapolis at Tennessee (-3) LA Chargers (-2.5) at Detroit Buffalo (-1.5) at NY Giants Arizona at Baltimore (-13.5) Miami at New England (-18.5) Jacksonville at Houston (-9) Seattle at Pittsburgh (-4) San Francisco at Cincinnati (-1.5) Minnesota at Green Bay (-3) Kansas City (-7) at Oakland New Orleans at LA Rams (-2.5) Chicago (-2.5) at Denver Philadelphia (-1.5) at Atlanta Cleveland (-6.5) at NY Jets
Last Week: 11–5 Season To Date: 11–5
Rajan Nanavati is the editor of HailToTheDistrict.com. You can follow Rajan on Twitter, find the HailToTheDistrict Podcast here, and/or view his writing archives here.