The Dawn’s Early Light

Could we be seeing the end of the great American Experiment?

There is so much happening day to day, so much noise, so many distractions, it’s hard to know what to pay attention to.

Most news broadcasts are concerned with Covid-19 updates and related stories of controversy, protest, and arguments over facts, science, and how to go forward.

In the midst of all the durm und strang, some important things are happening that it would behoove us to notice and pay attention to. These are the times we will look back on, and wonder how we didn’t see it coming, how did we miss the handwriting on the wall?

How did we not realize we were witnessing the last gasps of our Republic, and watching the pieces on the board move into place, paving the way for what was to come?

I’m not talking about an apocalypse. No doom and gloom, end of days. I am talking about political transformation, however — revolution in the purest sense, that of change, an upheaval that just a few years ago would have been unimaginable.

Skeptical? Rightly so. I could be missing the target by miles. But let’s look at a few things, and see where they might lead.

Exhibit A: The withdrawal of the federal government

…from its role as coordinator and provider for emergency situations such as the one we find ourselves in has been established by President Trump. He is averse to having the federal government take responsibility for anything in this crisis, and as such has made it clear that it is each state’s responsibility to care for its own people, put in place its own emergency measures, etc.

But his desire to dodge future blame may, ultimately, be his undoing.

Exhibit B: The states have risen to the challenge.

There are now four formal regional confederations of states: The Western States Pact (Washington, Oregon and California), the Multi-State Council (New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Delaware and Massachusetts), the Midwest Governors’s Coalition (Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana and Kentucky), and the rather less formal mid-Atlantic cooperation between Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia.

Regional groupings of states with similar priorities, shared infrastructure and needs, potentially self-sufficient to a large degree due to a balance of urban and suburban areas, industry and agriculture, each honing their abilities to work together for a common good, strengthening their bonds and loyalties, operating independently of the Federal government.

These are also groupings that include the wealthiest states in the nation.

And they are largely Democratic.

What could be added to the cocktail of political divisiveness, pandemic and economic strife that would be like a match to tinder?

Exhibit C: An election.

Or even the lack thereof.

There are several possibilities that are not difficult to imagine: a virus surge in the autumn is more likely to devastate the poorer states with more rural populations, because by then the urban centers that were hit early will have equipment and procedures in place to deal swiftly and effectively with the disease. Such a surge would thus impact the “base” voters who typically live in rural areas, and have been such staunch supporters of the President. This could motivate him to seek a postponement of the election.

Or the election is held, but the outcome is challenged — due to low voter turn-out because of the virus…or because many states put in place voting by mail in anticipation of a problem, and if the result is not what the President wants it to be he would challenge it, possibly announce that it was invalid altogether.

It is not difficult to imagine this President challenging an unfavorable outcome, or attempting to influence the election in his own favor, and when that happens…

…what do these confederations of states who are now extremely self-sufficient, who have not been helped — and indeed been undermined repeatedly — by the President, whose voters chose the Other Guy, do?

There it is: the perfect storm of Revolution.

Scenarios

Perhaps there is a withdrawal from being under the auspices of the Federal government. Perhaps they announce, “Trump is not the president OUR people elected, so he is not OUR president.”

In the 14th century, the Catholic Church found itself with two Popes (and later, three). We could find ourselves in a two Presidents scenario.

Or, of course, Civil War.

But who would control the Armed Forces? Would they be loyal to a contested President?

And what about other nations — is it not conceivable that the Western nations of the world would be eager to ally themselves with a fractured part of the former United States in order to oust Donald Trump, in hopes of greater political stability for the world?

Surely, Putin would rush to support Trump…but then, might China take the opposing side?

Would a military stalemate occur? Leading to a standoff, an American Cold War…against itself?

No crystal ball

The farther out we guess, the wilder it gets…and I’m not really making any firm predictions here.

But I do think that there are significant shifts happening, like tectonic plates moving deep in the earth. And as we all know, when those plates move enough, it shakes everything up, volcanoes erupt, tsunamis roar, and the landscape changes.

It’s good to remember, as well, that ending times are also beginning times. Something new always emerges, and it can be good, beautiful, better than before. This could the dawning of a new nation; we may be experiencing the birth pains even now. And possibly — who knows? — one day we’ll tell our grandchildren that yes, these were hard times, but we saw the signs, and the New World is much, much better than the old.