The Crypto Skeptic Formulates a Strategy
If you’re going to do this, have a plan besides “to the moon”
When we last left off, I chased a massive, lucrative success by repeating the process and losing a big piece of the pie.
IOTX, the coin I talked about in that piece, did eventually find its level — well below what I’d paid for it. As of late, it seems to be the destiny of small coins to slide down after their Coinbase premiere. This left me down quite a bit from my peak, but still at about twice what I had before that big flip.
My new objective is to get back to where I was, but to do so without waiting on another of those 300% overnight gain fluke coins. The idea is to make a series of calculated and (relatively) safe plays with the goal of making 10% per trade as I slowly ascend.
This is the kind of strategy that you don’t hear about too much. Part of this is the absurd “to the moon” rhetoric of various and sundry charlatans (and we’ll get back to that in a minute, believe me). Another part of it is that it only works if you’ve got a pretty big seed to start with. If you’re able to put, say, $100,000 into the market, then you can make a steady profit on 1% and 2% gains (though hopefully you aren’t putting all of that into one basket!). I don’t have that kind of money to spare — this is mere simulation.
To facilitate this, I have a strategy in mind. The plan is to analyze each coin, taking into account various metrics including the running two week high and low, recent buy trends and the overall direction of the market. Based on these, I hope to make forecasts on which coins are likely to gain enough in the short term to take them worth my time.
In other words, I’m reading tea leaves. Despite what you may hear, no one can predict the movement of this market — and by the way, that’s true for forex and the stock market as well. There may well be some skill in timing the market, but it’s going to be 95% luck even in the best of times. Anyone who says otherwise is about to sell you something.
Speaking of which, I received a comment on the last Crypto Skeptic post from a person I believe to be a scammer. This has become very common in the cryptocurrency space — and really, in every investment community. Making money in the market is uncertain, but swindling pays fast dividends. Needless to say, you should only invest with people you know and trust. As a rule, you shouldn’t trust people who advertise their services in random comment sections — that’s simply not the behavior of legitimate investment professionals.
Oh, and don’t buy a coin just because a hip-hop MC or a guy on YouTube told you to. Seems obviously, but apparently not to everyone.
Next time we meet, we’ll see if the tea leaves have given me a winning strategy, and on the basis of that we’ll discuss the best way to make money in trying times (Prediction: Probably not like this).
