Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as the night. But when you move, fall like a thunderbolt. Sun Tzu
The beginning of the Ukrainian counter-offensive marks the beginning of the end of Russia’s war, all roads are leading to Crimea
Russia committed an act of terrorism by blowing up the Nova Kharkova dam, which provides most of the irrigation water for Crimea
In the first half of the article, I will take a cursory around the front lines to update you on the situation. In compliance with Ukraine’s wish for operational security. In part two, I will discuss the terrorist attack on the Nova Kharkova dam.
My heart and prayers go out to all those affected by this flooding. What Russia did here is nothing short of mass murder and ecocide. Lots of people live downstream of that dam they need to be evacuated as the the flood is coming their way as I type these lines here.
Let’s start with a frontline update on Russia’s failed offensive actions
Russia has conducted unsucessful limited offensive operations northeast of Charkiv city. They also continued with limited ground attacks in the North East of Kupyansk along the Svatove and Kreminna line. There were also limited attacks in the Donetsk Oblast against the village of Adiivka. So, nothing much is going on Russia’s side apart from terrorising civilians with drones or by trying to drown them.
The pace of Russian attacks has seemingly decreased since June 4. ISW
So it begins: Update on the Ukrainian counter offensive
I assumed the offensive would begin between mid-May and mid-June. I really love to be right on this one. Ukrainian military officials confirm that Ukraine moves forward in the Donetsk and eastern-Saporishia oblast. Ukraine made limited gains there. It appears the offensive has indeed begun in earnest.
- The Southern Front
There are reports that Ukraine liberated the villages of Neskuchne and Novodarivka. UKrainian artillery attacked the area. But this is likely not the main vector of attack. Dennys, a Ukrainian milblogger, says the attack was led by no more than a single batallion. (300 to 1000 soldiers) The goal of this limited campaign could be to reach Staromaoirske.
The other offensive actions happened south of Zolota Nyva. Ukraine runs into an obstacle here as there is a river between them and Novodonetske. Additionally, there were several explosions in Melitopol, Berdyansk, and Mariupol. Which is where Russia’s main supply hubs are. This is likely part of the shaping operations for the major hammer that will fall down on Russia soon.
2. The Eastern Front Bakhmut Donetsk region
Ukraine has made further gains on the flanks of Bakhmut. Berkhivka is partially under their control. From a topographical point of view, Berkhivka is situated on an elevation point.
There is now a great risk of encirclement. The usual goodwill gesture by Russia in Bakhmut will soon be in order
Ukraine has the high ground over Bakhmut, which will make artillery fire from there even more devastating. Ukraine is moving forward in the southwest of the city. This information comes to us from Prigoshin, so take it with a grain of salt.
3. The Freedom for Russia Legion Bilhorod people’s republic front
I haven’t thought of a better name yet. It appears that Novaya Tavolzhanka was captured by the Freedom for Russia legion. There are also reports of shelling and destroyed vehicles. It appears that this guerilla warfare will continue. There are also reports of rail sabotage by the freedom of Russia legion.
The Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) says it continues to operate in a Russian border settlement in Belgorod Oblast as of June 5. ISW
This crossing to and from the border in these small group tactics is highly painful for Russia to deal with
In the past, I called a potential Russian civil war “Yugoslavia on steroids.” We might be witnessing the prelude to this civil war. The Russian town of Shebekino has been evacuated, and Russia even started to demolish their own town. The Russian logic is the same as it is inside Ukraine. Leave and then bombard them place. That is the only way Russia knows how to fight effectively.
4. The offensive in broad strokes
Ukraine might commit two brigades to Bakhmut. Two brigades could be sent towards Mariupol. Even with the low estimate of 9 brigades, Ukraine would have five of them left. Two more could be sent towards Melitopol. Three would be kept in reserve to exploit breakthroughs once Russian defense lines are broken. Army milblogger Paul
According to Paul, Ukraine might have made some progress towards Velika Novosylka. That would make a lot of sense. That is the general direction in which the offensive would be conducted. This way, Ukraine could be cutting off Saporishia on two sides and driving down to Mariupol to cut off the landbridge. The other supply line that leads across the Kerch strait will also be cut off. But so far, Ukraine wants to provide one last option for Russia to retreat.
“Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across.” ― Sun Tzu
The destruction of the Nova Karhkova dam is a war crime, the local population in the flooded areas has to evacuate as gas and electricity is cut off Yuriy Sak
The dam of Nova Kharkova stands in occupied territory, many civilians stand to lose their homes in the flooding, and it will affect the cooling reservoirs for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Zelensky has been warning of a terrorist attack like this on the dam since November.
This was not Ukraine’s doing, but Putin follows his great idol Stalin and ordered the unthinkable
Stalin ordered the dam to be destroyed during WW2. As a result of the dams destruction, 100,000 people downstream died, including thousands of Red Army soldiers who were crossing the river ( no one told them the dam was going to be blown up)
“If the canal goes offline, you trigger a crisis in Crimea as there is a food issue and a potential nuclear crisis” Peter Zeihan
The Russians unblocked this canal and restored water access to Crimea after they took the left bank of the Dnipro river
The Ukrainians damned the canal after 2014. The Russians managed to supply crimea via ships and air cargo transports. This was very expensive. Crimea will turn into an arrid desert without this irrigation water.
Whatever Russia has accomplished with that has now been undone. The fate of Crimea is now sealed. Russia will not be able to hold on to Crimea. They just blew away any prospect of that. Sevastopol will run out of fresh water soon without the water from that reservoir.
If Ukraine intends on laying siege to Crimea, they would definitely want to cut off its fresh water supply.
A 2015 study found that the canal system had been providing 85% of Crimea’s water prior to the 2014 shutdown. Of the water from the canal, 72% went to agriculture and 10% to industry, and the water for public consumption made up of the remaining 18 percent. Whatever water that was brought into Crimea from 2015 to 2028 came by barge. Any attempts to do that again will make nice targets.
Russia is already packing up its black sea fleet as a first step to withdraw from Crimea
Natalia Humenyuk says Russian forces are transferring the Black Sea Fleet’s logistics centers from Sevastopol, occupied Crimea, to Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai because of widespreach logistical and ammunition provision issues. ISW June 5th
Here is a worst-case mode for a russian demolition of the Nova Kakhovka Dnipro river dam
It shows that the worst flooding will take place on the left (south east) side of the river bank. A 4 – 5 meter wave will hit the Antonovsky bridge east of Cherson city 19 hours after the incident. There will be a backswell flooding up the Inhulets River. After 4 – 5 days, there would be some flooding up the river bend to Mykolaiv.
Most of Cherson City will not flood, but the harbor and the docklands, including the island in the south of the city, will be flooded
Several smaller towns or villages on both sides of the Dnipro will be flooded, and when the wave hits, it will probably be very dangerous, and lives will be lost.
“Russians are trying to fool the world, but the world has seen every time they open their mouth, they are lying.” Yuri Sak
Russia’s attempts to blame this on Ukraine are outrageous
The dam was a likely entry point of Ukraine during the counter offensive. When Ukraine announces their big attack on the southern front, the dam blows. This isn’t a coincidence. Russians have already set the charges when they retreated from Kerson. The Russians absolutely did it. This is the dam that Russia wanted to blow up at the beginning of the war.
The short version : Russia is responsible because:
- Ukraine says Russia did it. - Russia said Ukraine did it.
This comes from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. The press press coverage was instant. And it’s beautifully shot by a drone. The Russians get a short-term benefit since this complicates crossing the river for at least a week. This might slow down the offensive.
Long-term, there will be less water for Crimea and the nuclear plant
I expect lots of evacuations from Crimea. The real question is if the Russians are evil enough to let the nuke plant melt down. Cherson will also be partly devastated. Russia went too far, and the West must react harshly to this major war crime.
The Enerhodar nuclear plant has been shut down since September
However, it needs some water for cooling off the heat produced by the decay of the fuel. But the plants need less water as they are not operational. I am not a nuclear expert, but I will lean myself out of the window here. The Dnipro River is still one of the major rivers in eastern Europe. The plant will not run out of water. What will be affected heavily in the long term is irrigation in Crimea.
“Russia is in for a 1980s ethiopian style famine without this fresh water supply” Peter Zeihan
This is a desperate move by the Russian. Russia is trying to force Ukraine to make their move north, where they have probably fortified themselves better. That was the only river crossing still relatively usable on the Dnipro in Cherson Oblast. The Dnipro is basically the frontline between the Ukrainian and Russian controlled parts of the Oblast.
The destruction of the dam is only the Russian side. The half of the dam that’s on the Ukrainian side look fine.
This terrorist attack by Russia secures their whole flank. There’s no point in the AFU crossing in force now as they will struggle to resupply that force. It doesn’t make sense for Ukraine to destroy the dam. Ukraine needed it intact while the Russian army needed it destroyed. As Russia is not planning on crossing the Dnipro again, it seems.
It might be possible to set up a pontoon bridge by engineer bataillons. Any other options would not work, in my opinion, but I am open to suggestions in the comments.
This is just plain stupid and evil on Russia’s part
This doesn’t hurt governments. It will hurt kids and the poor that get caught out with this flood. I hope that most people and animals could avoid the wave and the flood. To reinstall everything, it would take several months with special equipment to fix this large breach. Likely it won’t be fixed before the end of the war.
Summary and conclusion
By blowing up this dam, Russia has also doomed Crimea. Crimea is entirely dependent on water from a canal fed by the reservoir behind the Nova Kakhovka dam. Agriculture in Crimea will soon grind to a halt without that water. The same goes for the running water for Crimea’s residents. If Russia wanted to hold on to Crimea, blowing up that dam doomed, any prospect of this.
The hydroelectric power plant had a capacity of 500 mega watt, so that is a massive hit for civilians in the area as they will be without electricity for a while
Here is what will happen in the next couple of days. We will see massive flooding on the south bank. The supply of drinking water for millions of people will be disrupted. There will be no more irrigation, which means millions will suffer. There will be a massive drop in agriculture production. Crimea will now become a half arrid desert. The mudflat that will emerge will probably cause dust storms.
This is ecological terrorism and there needs to be a hefty global response
This wasn’t an artillery strike. These were explosives given the enormous damage that has been done. There will be no more room left in hell for those in charge of this SMO. Russia just showed the whole world that Ukraine needs to be given anything they want right now. ATACMS, whatever Ukraine asks for. The gloves are off. We must stop pretending that Russia will be stopped without the use of overwhelming military force.
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