The Battle For The Seas: Are They Polishing The Bombs Of War Yet Again?
Round two is Taiwan vs China
In October 2006, a US Naval Super Carrier Group led by the thousand-foot USS Kitty Hawk was confidently sailing through the East China Sea between southern Japan and Taiwan, minding everyone’s business, when, without warning, a Chinese navy submarine surfaced in the middle of the group.
An American aircraft carrier of that size is surrounded by about twelve other warships, with air cover above and submarine cover below. The Chinese vessel, a Song-class attack submarine, may well be very quiet when running on electric power, but, still, this was the equivalent of Truth Social’s management popping up in a Twitter board meeting after listening under the table for half an hour.
The Americans were amazed and angry simultaneously. Amazed because they had no idea a Chinese sub could do that without being noticed, angry because they hadn’t noticed and regarded the move as provocative, especially as the sub was within the torpedo range of the Kitty Hawk itself.
Both reactions baffle the mind. Here we have a submarine, surfacing off its coast, in the middle of a battle-ready group sailing thousands of kilometers from home.
The Chinese were doing a reverse psychology, British Colonialist, maritime maneuver on the Americans. Whereas the British ships used to linger just off the coast of the next nation on their colonialist menu to signal intent.
The Chinese surfaced on their coast to send a clear message. As of that day, they could now be considered a maritime power. Some maritime warship games were going on and they were keen to join the games...
And so the maritime warship games in the oceans and seas of the world were now forced to recognize another player. It took the Chinese four thousand years but they too have seas and oceans to protect and they mean serious business.
Within this context, maritime means sea, air, and outer space. Sea and air battle formations are mostly controlled by carrier ships with satellites in space playing an ever-increasing role. So the word naval has become shorthand for several dimensions of military activity.
The world’s superpowers are willing to engage in a fight to the death for the control of a sea. This normally happens to the detriment of us, the common people all over the world. They don’t care.
It is all about resources and trade. Nothing else.
To understand the current China-Taiwan threat one has to acknowledge a couple of things.
The to-and-fro military shuffling between China and Taiwan is a sixty to seventy-year-old conflict with not one shot fired. The escalation of this conflict increased drastically in January 2022; A couple of weeks before the Russian\Ukraine one swung into full battle mode. I often wonder about the timing.
Also, China is more interested in Geoeconomics than Geopolitics. Their geopolitical strategy, more often than not, informs and supports their geoeconomics strategy. At least, this is what China says.
Military Bases, the Seas, and World leaders doing crazy things
Here are a few important events that occurred over the last couple of years. Some over the last couple of days and weeks. All of them involve China and therefore by definition, it involves the USA. The two superpowers are the Nexis of the balancing act that is playing itself out with increased intensity in 2022. I normally use this world map at Nations Online to try and make sense of these events. The zoom-in and zoom-out capabilities are useful.
2015–2017 — China builds a naval base in Djibouti. This was the first time China established a military presence beyond its borders ( they now have five). The mainstream media went bonkers. Now, why would China establish a military presence on the coast of East Africa? That one came out of the blue like with everything China does these days. The irony of it all in hindsight is that China started this army base with ONE aircraft carrier which it bought from Ukraine in the 2000s.
If you look at the map, you immediately see some names you have to watch. Control of the Gulf of Alden. The gulf of Alden is a vital waterway for shipping, especially for Persian oil. The countries Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia have borders with Djibouti. Across the Red Sea, you have Saudi Arabia. Across the Gulf of Alden, you have Yemen. From the Gulf of Alden, you have access to the Indian Ocean and hence a route to support trade to and from Africa. Anywhere in Africa to and from anywhere in the world. All of the countries I mentioned have some kind of civil war going on at the moment. Strange. While a superpower is bleeding you dry, you go and fight amongst yourselves for nothing? Why would anybody do that? The Gulf of Alden. The Red Sea. The Arabian Sea. The Indian Ocean.
26th May 2022- An Australian aircraft was intercepted by a Chinese jet fighter over what Australia claims to be international air space. The Chinese jet fighter released pieces of aluminum that got stuck in the Australian jet fighter’s engines. The Australian surveillance aircraft was busy with routine surveillance operations in the South China Sea “region.” The South China Sea? What is Australia doing there? These kinds of encounters have become normal in the South Pacific Ocean. It happens all the time. Now, it turns out, they are happening close to the South China Sea and these encounters are becoming more dangerous with each encounter. It only takes one clip off the wing of any one of the two aircraft and then what? The South China Sea.
27th May 2022 — Russia and China veto a US-drafted United Nations Security Council resolution to strengthen sanctions on North Korea. If there is a veto from but ONE country, there is no resolution. So no sanctions. The UN Security Council is the most powerful body within the UN but also the one with the strangest rules since it is so closely linked to maintaining world peace. For the record, the US has vetoed many resolutions against Israel over the years, sometimes being the only country that vetoed a resolution. Every member of the UN Security Council is a permanent member. So North Korea is there to stay. North Korea is strategically placed between China and Japan. The Sea Of Japan.
6th June 22 — North Korea fires multiple ballistic missiles into the waters of its East Coast, the Sea Of Japan. This happens all the time but even North Korea has stepped up with its number of missile ‘training’ exercises since January 2022. The sea of Japan is between North Korea and Japan and between South Korea and Japan. The East China Sea.
6th June 22 — On the same day, South Korea and the USA fires 8 surface to surface missiles in retaliation. Every move the one-party makes is almost immediately followed by a retaliatory exercise by the other party. This is bordering on the crazy. The East China Sea.
June 2022 — China escalates threats of Taiwan invasion. The Chinese PLA bombers are increasing the number of night raid drills around Taiwan and the East China Sea. Not the hotly contested South China Sea. The East China Sea. The one closest to Japan and North Korea. This escalation started immediately after President Joe Biden made a statement at a joint press conference with the Japanese prime minister on May 23, 2022. Joe Biden stated publicly that America will militarily defend Taiwan if China decides to invade. That was uncalled for and irresponsible and it received the proper response from the rest of the world including China. Now we have Chinese bombers simulating an invasion of Taiwan from the Sea closest to Japan and Taiwanese citizens learning to use firearms for the first time in their history. The East China Sea. The South China Sea.
A lot is going on in China at the moment. Here are a few more pointers that are worthy of closer inspection.
The leaked documents in May 2022 of China secretly building an army base in Cambodia with the consent of the Cambodian government. The satellite photos confirm this and also show how developments are unfolding at the base daily. A study of China’s shift toward army bases on foreign soil is an interesting one with lots of surprises. The Gulf of Thailand. The South China Sea.
The EU placing an oil embargo on Russian oil and India buying Russian oil to sell to the US. India is currently in talks to sell the same oil to the EU. Does that even make sense? You refuse to buy oil from a country but you will buy it from another country who, business-like, offers to sell it to you at a higher price? China has its hand in this three-way partnership of classic middle-man business transactions. All Seas that are involved in trade between East and West.
India getting unlikely support from China over the wheat export ban. China and India are historically not the best of friends but the Ukraine war has all of a sudden forced partnerships that would have been impossible in January 2022. The Bay of Bengal.
China now has investments (loan shark-like loans?) in 100+ ports in at least 60 nations across the world. Seaports are important for the overall maritime strategy of a country. The maritime strategy of the country that’s investing, not the country where the actual port is. This ‘ownership’ of seaports by way of the intelligent structure of loans is accelerating at a breathtaking speed in 2022. Ports on every Sea and every Ocean.
Conclusion
To try to keep track of this is sometimes overwhelming but we have to. If we don’t, our governments will try to sell us on the idea that a war suddenly started on the 30th of June 2022. They play on our emotions and force us to pick a side. We should not allow them that opportunity. There is no right or wrong side here. Both sides can avoid another war if they want to.
The South China Sea is more important to China than the Black Sea is to Russia. China will not give up the South China Sea easily. Let me fix that. China will not hand over the South China Sea to the west. Why should they?
The South China Sea has been hotly contested by five countries in that region for the last 60 to 70 years. Those five countries can be forced to reach a negotiated settlement to avoid a war. Any other country, or countries, should refrain from trying to exploit the situation for their benefit.
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