The Ancient Theory Of Anacyclosis Predicts A Grim Future For Our Political Systems
It’s amazing how spot-on this ancient Greek theory really is.
In the 2nd century BC, the ancient Roman Republic was at the height of its powers. Having vanquished its mortal enemy across the pond, Carthage, it achieved hegemony over its imminent domain.
With the concurrent conquest of ancient Greece, it became the most dominant state around. Riches started pouring in. The ancient Romans got exposed to a level of prosperity they never had before.
Yet, it is here, at the height of Roman triumph, that the seeds of the eventual downfall of the Republic were planted. The Roman Republic was created in 509 BC, when the last king was overthrown by a rebellion. In order to prevent one man from holding too much power ever again, the Romans set up an elaborate system of checks and balances.
In the 2nd century BC, this system which took centuries to create began to slowly unravel. Ancient Greek historian Polybius was writing his history book at this very time. Taken from his homeland as a prisoner of war, he spent the last part of his life in the city of Rome. While captivated by how efficient the Roman system was, armed with the lessons of history he started noticing certain patterns that began to appear.
Polybius was a proponent of a certain theory of political evolution. “Anacyclosis” in Greek, this theory posits that politics in a state moves in a cyclical pattern.
The theory of Anacyclosis
The steps of the theory of anacyclosis are quite simple.
- Monarchy
- Tyranny
- Aristocracy
- Oligarchy
- Democracy
- Mobocracy
First countries start off in a state of one man rule. A monarchy degenerates into a tyranny.
When the abuses of the tyrant become too great, certain powerful men in the country get together and overthrow him. They set up an aristocracy, or a rule by a select few. However, here too the leaders start abusing their power, and the system degenerates into an oligarchy.
Seeing these blatant abuses, the people decide to take power into their own hands, and set up a democracy. However, this system too has its faults and is prone to abuse. Over time, democracy degenerates into what Polybius called an “ochlocracy”, or mob-rule. When violent mobs in the streets start tearing things up, democracy disappears. This is also when dangerous demagogues rise up and stir people up.
Often this can result in chaos, violence, and even civil war. Different sides battle each other, prodded on by smooth talking populists. Over time, one man vanquishes all the opponents. And promising to restore order, he takes over government. This is when the system resets itself back into one man rule.
Are we heading to a grim future?
Looking at the events of the last few years, we can see at which stage most countries around the world find themselves in.
Countries like Russia, Turkey, and China are fully back to the first steps, one-man rule. Tyrants are in power there. However, most countries in Europe are on the other side of the spectrum. They are beginning to experience ochlocracy. Mobs are starting to take over.
In the US, things have degenerated further and faster than in other places. Stupidity, true-believers, and bullshitters reign supreme. Violent mobs are fighting each other in the streets. The extremist elements on both sides question the legitimacy of the current system. Each comes with its own story of oppression and its own devil.
While there is no threat of an imminent collapse of the current system, the cracks that have started appearing are huge. This is worrying. The Roman Republic too didn’t fall overnight. Instead, it was chipped away at for decades. The US finds itself in a similar situation. Mobocracy.
Can we avert the looming catastrophe? I don’t know. The signs aren’t good. Can reason prevail over stupidity? Let’s hope it can. Unfortunately, history teaches us that stupidity is often a force too great to overcome.
