The 92nd Academy Awards: Who Should Win (Part I)

We are just two days away from this year’s Oscar ceremony, following what has been an atypically brief but typically controversial awards season. In this article, I rank the contenders in each of the four acting races while delving into my take on the relative merit of the contenders.

To find out who I think should win in the other major categories — including Best Picture — check out Part II of this article.

To find out who I think will win — check out my preview of tomorrow night’s ceremony.

Although I admittedly love the glitzy ceremony, the behind-the-scenes drama, the near-century of statistics and milestones, and the fun of predicting the eventual winners, I pay so much attention to the Oscars each year primarily because I love movies. I love watching movies, reflecting on movies, and debating movies. I believe that the art of filmmaking has shaped my life — and our culture — in profound ways. Thus, each year I make sure to see each film nominated in the Top Eight categories (Best Picture, Best Director, the four acting categories, and the two screenplay categories), along with as many of the others as I can squeeze in. Below, I rank the five nominees in each acting category from worst to best based on my evaluation of the quality of the respective performances.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

5.) Al Pacino, The Irishman (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is Al Pacino’s 9th nomination; he received Best Supporting Actor nominations for The Godfather, Dick Tracy, and Glengarry Glenn Ross and Best Actor nominations for Serpico, The Godfather Part II, Dog Day Afternoon, …And Justice for All, and Scent of a Woman; he won the Oscar for Scent of a Woman). The fact that I rank Pacino’s performance as the weakest in the lineup says much more about the astonishing quality of this category than it does anything negative about Pacino’s performance. He richly deserved this nomination (his first in 27 years) for his nuanced portrayal of the all-powerful but ill-fated labor union leader Jimmy Hoffa in Martin Scorcese’s epic. It’s a classic Pacino role, with a nice mix of scenery chewing and moments of subtle heartbreak.

4.) Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is Hanks’s 6th nomination; he received Best Actor nominations for Big, Philadelphia, Forrest Gump, Saving Private Ryan, and Cast Away; he won back-to-back acting Oscars for Philadelphia and Forrest Gump). Having one of the most likable actors on the planet play the person who many see as the very embodiment of kindness and goodness was a genius idea, but Tom Hanks playing Mr. Rogers is far more than just a gimmick. Hanks goes for interpretation over straight impression and although the transition is a bit jarring at first, he quickly embodies the character and packs a real emotional wallop. It’s so hard to believe with all the consistently great performances Hanks has given in terrific, high-profile films this century that this is his first nomination in 19 years.

3.) Joe Pesci, The Irishman (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is Pesci’s 3rd nomination; he received Best Supporting Actor nominations for Raging Bull and GoodFellas; he won the Oscar for GoodFellas). Pesci famously came out of retirement to play the role of crime boss Russell Bufalino and gives one of his finest performances. It is hard to imagine any actor doing more nuanced or commanding work with this role.

2.) Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is Pitt’s 4th acting nomination and 7th overall; he received a Best Supporting Actor nomination for 12 Monkeys and Best Actor nominations for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Moneyball; he received nominations for producing Moneyball, 12 Years a Slave, and The Big Short; he won an Oscar for producing 12 Years a Slave). It looks like an almost certainty that Pitt is going to win his first acting Oscar for his role as stunt man Cliff Booth in Quentin Tarantino’s delightful bit of revisionist history. He is charismatic and convincing as the ultra-cool dude with a mysterious past who keeps his best friend’s confidence up and shows no fear in confronting the evil of Charles Mansons’s gang. It is a slick, pitch-perfect, genuine movie star performance that only comes along once every few years.

1.) Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is Hopkins’s 5th nomination; he received Best Actor nominations for The Silence of the Lambs, The Remains of the Day, and Nixon and a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Amistad; he won an Oscar for The Silence of the Lambs). As good as Pitt is in Hollywood, Hopkins’s turn as Pope Benedict XVI impressed me even more. He fascinatingly embodies the tormenting inner-conflict that ravages Pope Benedict as he not only becomes the first Pope to resign in over 700 years but also prepares to hand over the papacy to a man whose views and mission are diametrically opposed to his. He finds humor and humanity amidst the haughtiness and hubris. It is a fully realized, three dimensional performance that is one of the highlights of Hopkins’s stellar career. The debate over whether or not his is actually a supporting performance performance is a valid one, but any debate over whether it is an award-worthy one is not.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

5.) Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is Bates’s 4th nomination; she received a Best Actress nomination for Misery and Best Supporting Actress nominations for Primary Colors and About Schmidt; she won an Oscar for Misery). Clint Eastwood’s critical and commercial misfire about the bombing at the 1996 Olympics in Atlanta is a deeply flawed film with a highly problematic message. Nevertheless it features three strong performances from Paul Walter Hauser (as the titular security guard wrongfully accused of the bombing), Sam Rockwell (as his devoted lawyer), and Kathy Bates (as his mother). As usual, Bates is commanding, nuanced, and elevates the material. But this isn’t an award-worthy performance and it most certainly isn’t an award-worthy film.

4.) Scarlett Johannson, Jojo Rabbit (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is the first year that Johannson has been nominated by the Academy; she also received a Best Actress nomination this year for Marriage Story). As Frau Rosie Beltzer, the mother of the titular protagonist, Johannson manages to pull off an extremely tricky role that requires her to be both a remarkably brave resistance fighter and warmly devoted mother (with a convincing German accent to boot). Her work was strong, but her character wasn’t given the requisite material to turn it into a brilliant one.

3.) Margot Robbie, Bombshell (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is Robbie’s 2nd nomination; she received a Best Actress nomination for I, Tonya; she has never won an Oscar). Unlike her costars Charlize Theron and Nicole Kidman, who portray recognizable journalists, Robbie plays a fictional composite character in Bombshell. And unfortunately not a particularly well-written one. The fascinating contradiction between her extreme Evangelical and right wing views with her jumping into bed with a woman she barely knows is never explored in any meaningful, interesting, or believable way. Nevertheless, there are two key scenes regarding her sexual harassment by Roger Ailes — one during it and one in the aftermath — that Robbie knocks out of the park. Interestingly, along with her turn as Sharon Tate in Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood, Robbie managed to do brilliant work this year with two highly problematic, poorly written roles.

2.) Florence Pugh, Little Women (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is Pugh’s first nomination). Pugh’s turn as the passionate and mischievous youngest daughter in the March family is a truly impressive one, albeit moreso in the scenes depicting her in adulthood than those in childhood. She does her best in the younger scenes, but the English 24-year-old is never entirely believable as an American 12-year-old. But that’s hardly the fault of Pugh and this becomes abundantly clear with her astonishingly powerful work in the segments of the film where she plays an emerging adult grappling with the demands, contradictions, and injustices of contemporary womanhood. Her impressive performances this year in both Midsommar and here make it very apparent that Pugh is unlikely to be a one-time visitor to the Oscar race.

1.) Laura Dern, Marriage Story (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is Dern’s 3rd nomination; she received a Best Actress nomination for Rambling Rose and a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Wild; she has never won an Oscar). It is so wonderful that after three decades of terrific performances on the big and small screens, in blockbusters and indie films, and in lead roles and bit parts, Laura Dern has finally got her awards season moment. Even among those who admire her, there is some grumbling over the fact that she dominated for a role as minor as divorce lawyer Nora Fanshaw. I, however, am not among that crowd. I think her performance in Marriage Story shows Laura Dern at her most brilliant — taking what might have been a forgettable, one-note role in the hands of a lesser actress and turning it into something startling and memorable. (Side note: I also think some of the grumbling is due to the fact that after so many years of category fraud resulting in actors winning in the supporting categories for roles that are clearly lead, we have forgotten what the supporting categories are truly about.)

BEST ACTOR:

5.) Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is Phoenix’s 4th nomination; he received a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Gladiator and Best Actor nominations for Walk the Line and The Master; he has never won an Oscar). I am certainly in the minority here, but Phoenix’s widely revered performance mostly didn’t work for me. Although there were moments that were truly affecting, throughout most of Joker his performance played like a method acting workshop. He cackled maniacally, stripped down to his skivvies and contorted his freshly emaciated body, he nonsensically danced, and gave yet another bizarre interpretation of what it means to be mentally ill. As someone who works with mental illness all day everyday across a variety of settings, I can say with certainty that I have never worked with someone who remotely resembles Phoenix’s turns in The Master or Joker. Additionally, I never found him believable as the quick-witted, sharp-tongued evil mastermind that his character would become per Batman canon. Phoenix certainly gets points for effort, but the obvious desire to wow coupled with a weak script makes this one a hard pass for me.

4.) Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is Pryce’s 1st Oscar nomination). The veteran character actor garnered his first-ever nomination for his role as Pope Francis and he does some strong work as he slowly comes around from his stubborn refusal to take over the papacy from the resigning Benedict. He has no trouble going toe-to-toe with Hopkins’s tour-de-force performance, but his performance is somewhat undercut by the key flashbacks to his involvement in dark chapters in Argentina’s political history do not work nearly as well as the contemporary scenes.

3.) Adam Driver, Marriage Story (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is Driver’s 2nd nomination; he received a Best Supporting Actor nomination last year for BlacKkKlansman; he has never won an Oscar). Adam Driver is a brilliant actor and his performance as theater director Charlie Barber is a brilliant performance. In almost any other year, he would be my frontrunner. He is at once emotionally raw and insufferably haughty, simultaneously charming and infuriating. Much ado has been made of the fight scene and his Stephen Sondheim karaoke, but I think it is in the quieter scenes in the film in which he truly impresses.

2.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is DiCaprio’s 6th Oscar nomination; he received a Best Supporting Actor nomination for What’s Eating Gilbert Grape? and Best Actor nominations for The Aviator, Blood Diamond, The Wolf of Wall Street, and The Revenant; he won the Oscar for The Revenant). In a recent article, I ranked DiCaprio’s performance as Rick Dalton to be the single best performance ever in a Quentin Tarantino film. And that’s saying something given the remarkable number of stellar performances that have been given in his first nine movies. I won’t belabor my admiration here, but suffice it to say I think it is one of the finest hours of one of our greatest actors.

1.) Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is Banderas’s 1st nomination). I was 100% convinced throughout the entire fall that my pick for Best Actor would be a neck-and-neck race between Leonardo DiCaprio and Adam Driver. And then I saw Pedro Almodovar’s heartbreaking emotional sucker-punch Pain and Glory. Antonio Banderas gives the finest performance of his underrated career as film director Salvador Mallo, whose life has shattered due to chronic pain, depression, and grief. The extended scene in which he is reunited with his former lover is an acting master class and shows how sometimes less can be so much more.

BEST ACTRESS:

5.) Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is the first year Erivo has been nominated by the Academy; she has an additional nomination this year for Best Original Song). Harriet Tubman is one of the most important and fascinating people in American history. Nevertheless, she is a very difficult one to make a truly interesting film about. I suspect this is because little is known about her true personality and her accomplishments are so extraordinary that it is hard not to veer into hagiography. Erivo is a terrific actress and she gives a perfectly fine performance, but it feels as straightforward and run-of-the-mill as the film as a whole does.

4.) Charlize Theron, Bombshell (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is Theron’s 3rd nomination; she received a Best Actress nomination for Monster and North Country; she won the Oscar for Monster). There is no doubt that Theron’s extraordinarily convincing transformation into former Fox News host Megyn Kelly was heavily aided by some masterful makeup and hairstyling work. Nevertheless, to reduce all of the power of the performance to the aesthetics would be deeply unfair given the grit, confidence, conflict, and conviction Theron brings to the role. If the screenplay had been a bit stronger — or at least had a stronger arc for her character — Theron might have earned a second Oscar for this.

3.) Scarlett Johannson, Marriage Story (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is the first year that Johannson has been nominated by the Academy; she also received a Best Supporting Actress nomination this year for Jojo Rabbit). As I mentioned in my review of the film, Johannson isn’t as consistently impressive throughout Marriage Story as her costar Adam Driver is. Nevertheless, when she soars she is fully convincing and an emotional powerhouse. It is certainly her finest performance to date and an overall excellent one.

2.) Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is Ronan’s 4th nomination; she received a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Atonement and Best Actress nominations for Brooklyn and Lady Bird; she has never won an Oscar). Ronan has accomplished more by age 25 than most actresses do in a lifetime and her astonishing streak continues with Little Women. As the iconic Jo March, Ronan perfectly balances fierce independence and occasionally infuriating stubbornness with heartbreaking vulnerability and relatability. She is equally convincing in both the segments portraying her as an adolescent and an adult and she gives the most fully realized performance in an astonishing ensemble.

1.) Renee Zellweger, Judy (Prior Oscar Appearances: This is Zellweger’s 4th nomination; she received Best Actress nominations for Bridget Jones’s Diary and Chicago and a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Cold Mountain; she won the Oscar for Cold Mountain). After many, many years away from the big screen, Zellweger came back in a huge way this year as she added the one and only Judy Garland to her unique and varied catalogue of characters (which includes swooning single mother Dorothy Boyd in Jerry Maguire, delusional waitress Betty Sizemore in Nurse Betty, perpetually humiliated British singleton Bridget Jones, singing and dancing murderess Roxie Hart in Chicago, and rough-and-tumble Civil War rube Ruby Thewes in Cold Mountain). Her performance as Garland admirably emphasizes interpretation over imitation and embodiment over mimicry. She nails the mannerisms and the drawl and gives a wholly believable portrait of one of Hollywood’s most beloved stars withering away due to loneliness and addiction. She also bravely does her own singing (in contrast to the recent Oscar-winning musical biopic performances that won Oscars for their lip-syncing actors Jamie Foxx, Rami Malek, and Marion Cotillard). Some critics have called her work campy and hammy and inaccurate, but I found it to be devastating, moving, believable, and utterly brilliant — even when the movie wasn’t.

Click here to read Part II of the article, which covers the screenplay, directing, and Best Picture categories.

I will be blogging all throughout awards season, so follow me on Medium and/or Twitter if you want to stay up to date on how things progress.

Check out my other awards show articles on last year’s Oscars and this year’s Golden Globe Awards, Screen Actors Guild Awards, and Primetime Emmys.

Check out my reviews of the following nominees: Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood and Marriage Story