The 4 ways to make better decisions

A design-based method to make sense of any situation

Early this year, I travelled to South America and went river rafting in Patagonia. It was beautiful. As we floated downriver, the sun began its golden descent towards the distant volcano. Its deep purple silhouette rising into focus. There were crisscrossing conversations as our guide pointed out beautiful things. We reacted in awe. It was a fantastic experience, yet I struggled in an unfamiliar place. I was trying to communicate in Spanish while learning to paddle a raft. How presumptive to think it would be easy!

This story defines sensemaking. Making sense is when the current state of the world is different from how you expected it to be. In my account, I assumed river rafting in Patagonia was a leisurely experience. But, it was a continuous process dealing with little problems, thus making sense of the world.

The types of problems we encounter can be very different. Thankfully, there is an effective method for categorising various problem scenarios. The Cynefin Framework is the model I’ll use to describe the four categories of problems we face.

• Simple: This is an ordered system with simple problems. We understand a cause-and-effect relationship, which makes the scenario easy to predict. For example, if I dig my oar into the river, I’ll pivot my raft sharply and dodge trees and river rocks.
• Complicated: Cause-and-effect relationships exist but are more challenging to detect. The relationship requires a person with expertise. If the rafting instructor tells me to dodge a tree branch in Spanish, I may need help understanding him. So, I need a translator to help with communication.

• Complex: The cause-and-effect is evident in hindsight. The reason is because the problem scenario is more complicated. Many people in this scenario modify the problem in one way or another. Thus, we must conduct safe-failed experiments to probe the effects. Then, we amplify or dampen the results based on outcomes. Amplify good, dampen bad. For instance, group rafters say “agua” [ahh-gwah] as they put their hands in the river. I can assume ‘agua’ means ‘water’. Then, to probe, I should place my hand in the river and say “agua”. Being met with head nods and smiles is positive reinforcement. My experiment is practical! I can now amplify with other words.
• Chaos: No cause-and-effect relationship exists here at all. The events occurring in a chaotic problem scenario are purely disordered. We live in a chaotic environment for two main reasons; the first is to stabilise the problem quickly. The second is to seek innovation for the issue in question. For example, a storm suddenly sweeps over and capsizes the rafts. People cling to rocks and tree branches. To stabilise the problem, someone must rescue rafters, safely bringing them to shore.

So, there are four ways to describe your decision environment and a space in the middle. This component is the unknown or disorder. We then assess our situation and choose Simple, Complicated, Complex or Chaos based on our preference for action. So, the Cynefin Framework applies to my rafting adventure in Patagonia, South America. I flipped between Complicated and Complex to solve the little problems as they arose. I am experimenting with new Spanish words while having another rafter translate for me.

(2010). YouTube. 12 July. Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7oz366X0-8&ab_channel=CognitiveEdge (Accessed: 06 October 2023).