The 10 Greatest ‘What-Ifs’ in Recent NBA History

The things that really change the world, according to Chaos theory, are the tiny things. A butterfly flaps its wings in the Amazonian jungle, and subsequently a storm ravages half of Europe.” ― Neil Gaiman, Good Omens: The Nice and Accurate Prophecies of Agnes Nutter, Witch

The butterfly effect is the idea that a single occurrence, no matter how small, can change the course of the universe forever. This phenomenon has existed throughout NBA history, in the form of the ‘What If’ scenarios which have dictated the trajectory of the sport. The greatest what-ifs initiate a snowball effect, not only impacting the players and teams involved, but altering the NBA’s landscape forever.

Before we get started, let’s set some ground rules.We’re only looking at events that took place in the last 20 years, specifically, following Jordan’s 1998 retirement. We’re avoiding injury-related what-ifs unless the injury completely changed the course of basketball, draft-related what-ifs unless the right decision was glaringly obvious even at the time and the team screwed up, as well as two specific free-agency what-ifs: LeBron’s 2010 Decision (this has been analyzed enough) and Durant’s 2016 arrival in Golden State (ditto).

Here are the top ten what-ifs in recent NBA history, in reverse order…

10. What if Kobe Bryant was traded to the Pistons in 2007?

The only reason this isn’t ranked higher is because of an endless supply of conflicting details surrounding the potential trade. To this day Kobe maintains he never signed off on a 2007 trade to the Pistons, claiming that he not only would’ve used his no-trade clause to nix the deal, but that the Pistons weren’t even on his list of preferred destinations. A lot of people say otherwise, though, including a person directly involved in the negotiations, who stated that “The deal was done. We were just waiting to set up the conference call with the league office.” Regardless, it’s too fun not to imagine.

Supposedly, the deal would’ve sent Bryant to the Motor City in exchange for Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Amir Johnson and a first-round draft pick. In Detroit, Kobe would’ve paired with Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace to form a Big 3 worthy of competing with Boston’s newly-assembled trio of KG-Pierce-Allen. This means the 2008–10 NBA Finals are up for grabs out West.

In the Lakers’ three-straight trips to the Finals, they beat the Spurs, Nuggets, and Suns in the WCF, none of whom were likely to win the title even if they made it that far; and so, assuming the Celtics got past the Pistons in 2008, what happens in 2009 and 2010? KG’s injury in 2009 put a nail in Boston’s coffin, which opens the door for the Pistons. It’s not that simple though. In each of those seasons, LeBron’s Cavs had won 60-plus games and were favorites to make it out of the East, before getting upset by Orlando in the ’09 ECF and in the second round to Boston the following year; what if LeBron captures a title in one of those years? Does he leave Cleveland? Probably not. Oh, the possibilities.

9. What if the Spurs never traded for Kawhi Leonard in 2011?

Kawhi Leonard was selected with the 15th overall pick in the 2011 NBA draft by the Indiana Pacers but was traded that night to the San Antonio Spurs along with the rights to Erazem Lorbek and Davis Bertans in exchange for George Hill. At the time, the Spurs’ days of contending appeared to be over, having failed to make it past the second round in the previous three seasons.

The addition of Kawhi, and his subsequent emergence, helped the Spurs reach consecutive NBA Finals (2013–14) and capture the 2014 title by way of Finals MVP Kawhi. If the trade doesn’t happen, the Duncan era goes out with a whimper; but the biggest what-could-have-been centers on Kawhi in Indiana. Following the trade, the Pacers went toe-to-toe with LeBron’s Heat in three-straight postseasons, including back-to-back ECF (’13 and ’14) in which they lost in seven and six games, respectively.

With Kawhi, Indiana’s crunch-time five would’ve been: Paul George, Kawhi, Lance Stephenson, David West, and Roy Hibbert. While you can make the case that Kawhi wouldn’t have evolved into the player he’s been with San Antonio since he’d have to share reps with George and Stephenson in Indiana, it’s a moot point. If the Pacers came within one win of making the Finals in 2013 with George Hill, it’s safe to say they could’ve gone the distance with Kawhi.

8. What if Portland had taken Kevin Durant over Greg Oden in the 2007 Draft?

If the Blazers weren’t blinded by Oden’s potential, they select Durant, a sure-thing, no less, with the №1 pick in 2007, pairing him with Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge. At the time, Roy was still years away from suffering the injuries which would end his career; so, at the very least, him and Durant would’ve had a three-year window of dominance. Consider: Roy was second team All-NBA in 2009; in 2010, the same year in which Durant led the league in scoring and made the All-NBA first team, Roy was selected to the third team.

Considering Roy and Aldridge carried Portland to back-to-back 50-plus-win seasons in ’09 and ’10, imagine what they could’ve done with Durant. A trip to the Western Conference Finals is seemingly inevitable, while usurping the defending champion Lakers wouldn’t have been unreasonable. Above all else, though, the Durant-Roy-Aldridge Blazers would’ve been what OKC was in the first half of the decade — the present and future of the Western Conference.

7. What if Derrick Rose’s knee never gave out?

In 2011, following Rose’s MVP-winning campaign, the baby Bulls faced LeBron’s Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. After splitting the first two games, the Heat needed a big fourth -quarter-run to get a victory in Game 3; in Game 4, the Bulls led with one minute remaining, before the Heat prevailed in overtime; while in Game 5, Chicago coughed up a seven-point lead with 1:30 left, as they watched the Heat win their fourth game in a row. Despite losing in five, it was a moral victory for the Bulls, something to build upon. In 2012, with another ECF-meeting inevitable, Rose suffered a season-ending injury in Game 1 of the playoffs; he was never the same. If his knee doesn’t give out, do the Bulls upset Miami in round three? Maybe. Regardless, it’s safe to assume that Rose’s Bulls would’ve been LeBron’s closest competition out East for the next decade.

6. What if Detroit took Carmelo Anthony over Darko Milicic in the 2003 Draft?

Let’s assume the Pistons don’t overthink things and take ‘Melo, an absolute sure-thing, with the №2 pick. If so, the 2004 Pistons would’ve trotted out one of the deepest teams in the league. Alongside a solid starting five — Billups-Hamilton-Prince-Elden Campbell-Wallace — the bench would’ve featured three exceptional reserves: ‘Melo, reigning sixth man of the year Corliss Williamson, and Mehmet Okur.

The first major wrinkle in the draft day blunder is Rasheed Wallace. Remember, Rasheed, who was solely responsible for swaying the 2004 title in Detroit’s favor, wasn’t acquired until the trade deadline. And so, it’s inconceivable to presume they would’ve signed him had they drafted ‘Melo.

Is a crunch-time five of Billups-Hamilton-Prince-’Melo-Wallace better than the 2004 title team with Wallace? Probably not. But you have to look beyond 2004 to see what Detroit’s ceiling could’ve been with ‘Melo. Alongside a slew of veterans, ‘Melo would’ve slowly became the face of the Pistons, probably carrying them to at least two titles during the mid-to-late ’00s. Although their consecutive trips to the NBA Finals may not happen without Rasheed Wallace, doesn’t ‘Melo get them over the hump in 2006 (vs. Miami), 2007 (vs. Cleveland), or 2008 (vs. Boston)? In the words of Rip Hamilton, Yessir!

5. What if the Chris Paul trade to the Lakers wasn’t vetoed?

On December 9, 2011, on the eve of the league re-opening for business post-lockout, David Stern veto’d a deal that was in place to send Chris Paul to the Lakers, citing “basketball reasons.” The proposed trade would have sent Paul to the Lakers, Pau Gasol to the Rockets and furnished New Orleans with three top-flight NBA players in Kevin Martin, Luis Scola and Lamar Odom as well as playoff-tested guard Goran Dragic and a 2012 first-round pick that Houston had acquired from the Knicks.

If it went through, the Lakers possess a nucleus of Kobe, Paul, and Bynum. Now, do the Lakers still sign Howard the following summer? Probably. And so, heading into the 2012–2013 season, the Lakers now have Paul, Kobe and Dwight as their core. Does the Dwight era go more smoothly? Yes. And, with Paul shouldering the load, does Kobe get hurt? Probably not. Imagine a healthy Kobe playing alongside a pick-and-roll of Paul and Dwight. Is this good enough to beat the Spurs in ’13 and ‘14? You bet. Do we finally get a Kobe-Lebron Finals? I think so.

4. What if Minnesota hadn’t passed on Stephen Curry twice in the 2009 Draft?

The Minnesota Timberwolves made two of the worst mistakes in basketball history at the 2009 NBA draft. In need of a point guard, and with Davidson’s Steph Curry sitting on the board, they used the fifth and sixth picks to take 18-year-old Ricky Rubio and barely 6-foot-0 Jonny Flynn. Sure, the decision to pass on Curry wasn’t as outrageous as it seems in 2018, but it was still indefensible at the time.

Let’s say Curry still turns into a two-time MVP in Minnesota; alongside Kevin Love, the T-Wolves now become one of the best teams out West. That being said, do they make it to three-straight NBA Finals? If not, who does? Whoever represents the West in 2015 isn’t getting past LeBron’s Cavs, so he gets his third title one year early. The following year is when it gets interesting. It’s obvious that, without the superteam Warriors, the Thunder earn a trip to the 2016 Finals. Do they best Cleveland? Most likely. Even if they don’t, chances are that Durant stays put in OKC, collecting multiple titles with Russell Westbrook.

Let’s back up for a second. Assuming that Curry and Love excel in Minnesota, the Wolves aren’t getting rid of Love, and thus, is LeBron signing with a Cleveland team up made up of Kyrie and №1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins? That’s a rabbit hole in of itself.

3. What if the Thunder won Game 6 of the 2016 Western Conference Finals?

In Game 6, with a chance to dethrone Golden State, the Thunder held an eight-point lead at the start of the fourth quarter. Then Klay Thompson happened. Over the next 10 minutes, he scored 17 points, including five 3-pointers, to carry the Warriors to a series-tying victory. Two nights later Golden State won Game 7, and OKC’s season ended short of the NBA Finals for the forth-straight year.

Now, if Klay doesn’t explode in Game 6, the Thunder win and earn a date with Cleveland in the Finals. Durant and Westbrook, along with OKC’s size and depth, would’ve been too much for LeBron, Kyrie, and the Cavs. And so, by beating Cleveland, giving Durant and Westbrook their first title, does Durant leave? Not that summer.

Which brings us to two possibilities: Durant stays with the Thunder for his whole career, collects multiple championships with Westbrook, and retires with an unimpeachable legacy; the other option is that Durant signs a two-year extension. Then, let’s say the Thunder fail to win another title and Durant enters free-agency in 2018. Where does he go? The opportunities are endless.

2. What if Tim Duncan had signed with Orlando in 2000?

In the summer of 2000, 24 year-old Tim Duncan, one year removed from winning the title and NBA Finals MVP, entered free-agency. Orlando came calling. The Magic wasn’t appealing only because it played in a warm-weather city close to Duncan’s home; they’d already signed 27 year-old, four-time All-Star Grant Hill, along with a 21 year-old potential-superstar, Tracy McGrady. As the story goes, Duncan was sold, until he went to dinner with head coach Doc Rivers. According to Duncan’s then-teammate, Bruce Bowen, the Magic shot themselves in the foot with this exchange.

“When Tim went out to meet with Orlando, he asked this question,” Bowen said. “Can family come on the flights to some games? And from what I understand, [Doc Rivers] said no, and that’s where he lost Tim Duncan.”

Does a Big 3 of Duncan-McGrady-Hill accomplish more than Duncan, Parker, and Ginobli? The former has a higher ceiling, that’s for sure. And, even if the addition of Duncan doesn’t prevent Hill from being sidelined with injuries, in Duncan and McGrady, Orlando would’ve possessed two of the five-best players in the NBA during a five-year span (2001–05).

Are any of the East teams who made the NBA Finals during this period — Sixers (‘01), Nets (’02 & ‘03), Pistons (’04 & ‘05) — better than this Magic team? Not a chance. Let’s say Orlando wins the East in three of these years, specifically, in ’01, ’02, and ’04, we would’ve gotten to see Orlando vs. LA, Shaq vs. Duncan, and T-Mac vs. Kobe.

Further, Duncan in Orlando swings titles in three other seasons (’03, ’05, and ’07). With the Spurs nonexistent out West, which Western Conference juggernaut fills their void? The Suns, who lost to San Antonio in the ’05 and ’07 WCF, are the biggest beneficiaries. And so, by winning one, if not both, of these titles, Steve Nash’ legacy changes completely, as he goes from ‘one of the greatest to never win a ring’ to a two-time MVP and possibly, a two-time champion and Finals MVP. Simply though, Orlando not only lost out on one of the ten greatest players in NBA history, but blew its chance of becoming the league’s dynasty of the 2000s.

1. What if the Thunder didn’t trade James Harden?

It’s slowly becoming the most significant what-if in NBA history. Heading into the 2012–13 season, the Thunder — fresh off losing a hard-fought five-game series to Miami in the NBA Finals — possessed the second-best player in the league (Durant), a top-10 player (Westbrook) and a top-20 player (Harden) … all under the age of 25. They were looking at an eight-year championship window, then they traded James Harden.

What if they didn’t? They win three of the last six titles, at least; there’s a good chance that LeBron doesn’t win another championship after 2012; and the Warriors may have been nothing more than a great regular-season team. More than anything else, though, Durant-Westbrook-Harden would’ve cemented their status as the greatest Big 3 of all-time, if not the best dynasty in NBA history.