The #1 Global Risk Right Now? American Election Instability (Think: A Middle East War, Ukraine’s Defeat, & Rogue AI)
Last Week in Collapse: January 7–13, 2024
Last Week in Collapse is a weekly guest column round-up that brings together some of the most important, timely, useful, depressing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see moments in Collapse:
Let’s start with climate change
Drought triggered wildfires in Kashmir. Part of the UK’s Thames River hit all-time water level highs. Sell your skis now, researchers believe we’re heading off a cliff — a “snow loss cliff” to be precise, a temperature threshold beyond which snowfall & snowpack rapidly disappears. Places like Utah which rely almost entirely on snowfall for their water supply are in for a rude awakening.
Although Türkiye’s citrus production is up, its olive harvest declined 49% last year, and nut yields plunged. Average honey yields in US bee colonies is dropping too. A landslide in Colombia killed 34+ people. Colorado warned about increased avalanche risks coming.
Norway’s Parliament overwhelmingly voted, 80–20, in favor of mining its seabed for minerals like cobalt and lithium. No corporations have been approved to conduct extraction in the deep-sea yet. A court decision in Norway last week also authorized the dumping of 170m tonnes mining waste into the bottom of one Fjord…
Yet another expensive pro-fossil fuel campaign, “Lights On Energy” has begun, arguing that fossil fuels are essential to national security. France is leaning into nuclear power more and tabling plans to make a target date for renewable energy replacement.
A study investigating the Collapse of Antarctica’s Conger Ice Shelf in March 2022 determined that the event could have been much worse. The Conger broke off during the world’s strongest heat wave ever recorded — about 40 °C warmer than usual. The heat wave was attributed to an atmospheric river, which is a kind of sky river through which water vapor travels. However, because the heat wave struck during March, around the end of Antarctica’s summer, the impact was much less than if it had come in December, when temperatures are at their warmest. Climatologists know that these events, ordinarily 1-in-100 years, have become more common, and there will be a next time…and a time after that…
A startup in Greenland is selling prehistoric Greenland ice to luxury bars in Dubai — and was reportedly shocked at the backlash. Over 20 metric tonnes of ice have been sold already — a 19-day trip by ship to the UAE. Earth had its warmest year in 2023, and researchers say Canada is the fastest-warming country on the planet.
The Philippines felt its warmest January day on record — 36 °C (97 °F). A number of Balkan nations recorded record January temps too. One philosopher has proposed an environmental equivalent of the International Committee of the Red Cross — the Green Cross — to deal with ecological emergencies and devastation. More than 5% of global emissions are caused by military activities — and the recent Gaza War has contributed over 280,000 metric tonnes of CO2.
A study on field pansies detected that these flowers are shifting energy away from attracting bees and prioritizing their immune system and growth. The scientists believe the trend may apply to a number of flowers, shifting away from sexual reproduction, and potentially causing a plant population Collapse in the future. The same process could even be happening to humans, methinks.
A 6.4 earthquake hit Pakistan & Afghanistan, but caused almost no damage. A study on Arctic albedo concluded that, from 2014–2019, there was “a 20–35% decrease in total reflectivity over the Arctic summer,” mostly as a result of melting sea ice.
Health
Bird flu cases are rising in northern California, and in the southern region of South America, killing off seals and birds.
Scientists confirmed their fears: there’s way more nanoplastics in bottled water than initially believed. Somewhere between 10x and 100x as many, to be slightly more precise. Other scientists determined that PFAS chemicals are exchanged with Arctic ocean currents, reaching, and contaminating, far northern locations. A depressing study conducted on microplastics claims that some shapes of microplastics can reach the stratosphere — which begins 10km from the earth’s surface, and runs until about 50km.
Other scientists are concerned about how heat stress may incentivize bacteria to become more resistant to antibiotics. E. Coli was found in Jackson, Mississippi’s water supply, resulting in a warning to boil tap water. A Belgian study concluded that children who live near green spaces have stronger bones.
Damage report from cholera: last year, cholera cases (667,000) and deaths (4,000) rose globally. Vaccines are in short supply. In a moment of good news, Cape Verde reports that malaria has been eliminated in the country.
Oil prices ticked up to $80 a barrel amid transit problems in the Red Sea. A study on Catalonian clothing waste found that 90% goes to landfills, or gets incinerated, while 10% gets sold/donated to thrift stores and or other nations. How much of the burnt/trashed clothes contain polyester or other plasticky fibers is unknown.
About 1,500 Americans are dying from COVID every week, roughly 214 people every day. It is the largest COVID wave since Omicron peaked, and cases are still rising. Worldwide, the WHO claims 10,000 people died from COVID in December.
A two-year study concluded that Long COVID lasted for at least two years for 62% of test subjects, and about one third of test subjects reported anxiety and/or depression at the end of the study. “Post-exertional malaise” is common in Long COVID cases, and may relate to damaged mitochondria — the powerhouses of the cell.
Worldwide deaths from fungi have doubled since 2014. Fungi account for almost 7% of deaths worldwide per year. According to Our World in Data, 61 million people died in 2023, and 134 million were born. Some of the most renowned epidemiologists are meeting to discuss “Disease X” — a codename for a hypothetical future pandemic — and how humanity might mismanage this one, too.
Conflict
One day after an Ecuadorian drug lord escaped from prison, armed men took over a TV station, and at least 15 people have been killed across the country. The President said the violence has triggered an armed conflict, and granted a broad amnesty to security forces in combating the gangster rebels. Neighboring Peru declared a state of emergency, fearing spillover effects.
Iraqi Kurdistan, an autonomous region of Iraq, is facing economic Collapse over budgetary problems and oil export difficulties. A political & judicial standoff, concerning whether a preemptive pardon is legally permitted for some corrupt ex-officials, has emerged in Poland over the arrest of two former government ministers. Unrest & looting has gripped Papua New Guinea over wages for security forces; at least 16 have died so far.
Reports continue of mass expulsions of migrants from Tunisia into Libya and Algeria. Europe continues its quest to offload migrants and asylum-seekers, but nobody wants them, and the schemes are delayed by judicial challenges and political friction. The growing right-wing in Germany is allegedly discussing mass deportations, if they ever achieve control of the federal government.
In the United States, the specter of authoritarianism is rising. According to the data, police killings hit a record high last year — since 2013 anyway, when nationwide data began being collected. A survey of computer scientists indicated that 5% of them think AI could cause human extinction.
Myanmar resistance groups seized two more towns; retaliatory airstrikes from the government killed 17+. China mediated ceasefire talks but how long the peace will last is uncertain.
Taiwan’s hardline ruling party won their presidential election. Somalia is posturing for War against Ethiopia, after they recognized the brokeaway region os Somaliland as an independent state.
A ghastly report from Argentina’s lithium triangle indicates abuses of local communities by police defending mineral extractions — set to expand in 2024. A recent Nature article claims that about half of the world’s mining sites are “undocumented,” meaning that the public lacks information about their water use, waste, and total output.
Human Rights Watch released its 377-page World Report, and their conclusion is human rights are declining. No fancy graphs or images, just straightforward indictments of human rights abuses, searchable in a country-by-country document.
Russia has finished stationing nuclear weapons in Belarus. A Russian airstrike hit a hotel in Kharkiv, injuring several. Ukraine claims to have destroyed 26 Russian helicopters and 12 planes in a single day, thanks to a mysterious long-range weapon provided by NATO. Later in the week, a large-scale Russian hypersonic missile attack struck at least 5 oblasts.
The ICJ heard arguments for and against Israel’s alleged genocide of Palestinians in Gaza. This would be the first time the ICJ (the high court of the UN) determined a state to have committed genocide if they decide against Israel. (Another genocide case against Russia is still being examined.) The outcome may take years to be concluded. It’s been 100 days since the sadistic Hamas attack, and the damage they caused has been repaid — with interest. Now there are about 23,000 confirmed dead in Gaza, with another ~7,000 missing. If we assume those missing are dead, then about 1 in every 75 Gaza residents have been killed. Tens of thousands are wounded.
The US Navy shot down tens of Houthi drones & missiles in the Red Sea last week, but Houthis are pledging to continue attacks. A few days later the US and UK bombed 16 military locations in Yemen, attacks Türkiye called disproportionate. Israel took out a Hezbollah leader in an airstrike in southern Lebanon. The expanding conflict in the Middle East is pulling more nations in, and the Pope has said, again, that as another global conflict is coming together, the world is falling apart…
The Eurasia Group, a geopolitical think tank, released its 35-page Top Risks Report for 2024, and its #1 risk is American (In)stability amid an increasingly tumultuous election cycle. Legitimacy is under attack, and confidence in the country’s institutions has never been lower. Other risks include: 2) a wider War in the Middle East, 3) the Ukraine War tipping further, and more permanently, in Russia’s favor, 4) unconstrained Artificial Intelligence, and 5) the tightening cooperation between Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
The World Economic Forum released its own excellent 124-page Global Risks Report 2024, forecasting “global catastrophe” within 10 years, although its top threats are a bit different. Their top danger over the next two years is mis/disinformation, followed by 2) extreme weather, 3) polarization of society, 4) “cyber insecurity” and 5) international armed conflict. A separate risk analysis over the next 10 years places extreme weather at #1, followed by several serious environmental hazards. I encourage you to browse through both and make your own conclusions. It could be a good thread in the subreddit…
“Environmental risks continue to dominate the risks landscape….results highlight a predominantly negative outlook for the world over the next two years that is expected to worsen over the next decade.…As polarization grows and technological risks remain unchecked, ‘truth’ will come under pressure….Economic, environmental and technological trends are likely to entrench existing challenges around labour and social mobility, blocking individuals from income and skilling opportunities….governments and companies will rise accordingly, potentially deepening and prolonging economic risks….the lines between the state, organized crime, private militia and terrorist groups would blur further….The disruptive capabilities of manipulated information are rapidly accelerating….The world has become significantly less peaceful over the past decade….coordinated efforts to isolate ‘rogue’ states may be increasingly futile….” -selections from Chapter 1 of the WEF Global Risks Report, 2024
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Two personal notes from Jared A. Brock
- The world under financialized post-truth hyper-individualist secularist rule is utter chaos, but don’t let it get you down. Always remember the words of Christ in Matthew 24:6–8 — “You will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not alarmed, for this must take place, but the end is not yet. For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom, and there will be famines and earthquakes in various places. All these are but the beginning of the birth pains.”
- I have 38,000 followers on Medium, but Medium showed my most recent article to just 190 people. In other words, 99.5% of people who’ve asked (and often paid) Medium to show them my writing didn’t get a chance to read it. That’s worse than any social media platform in the world. Resist censorship, support independent writing, and don’t miss a thing by subscribing directly for free.