What Returning Champion Will Win Survivor: Winners at War?

20 previous winners return for the biggest season in Survivor history. What can we learn from past All-Star seasons, and who will come out on top this time around?

AFTER YEARS OF ANTICIPATION, SURVIVOR: WINNERS AT WAR IS FINALLY HERE. Survivor fans have long clamored for an all-winners season, and in Season 40, we’ll get our wish. Twenty previous winners are back in the most anticipated Survivor season of all-time, and with a doubled prize of $2 million up for grabs, the stakes have truly never been higher.

Many of our favorite Survivor legends are back. Boston Rob and Sandra Diaz-Twine return after roles as mentors last season. Names like Ethan and Yul are back after winning what feels like decades ago. Everyone remembers Parvati, and how can you forget Tyson Apostol or Tony Vlachos? That’s barely a third of an absolutely loaded cast as Jeff Probst used up all his big favors in pulling together the greatest cast in Survivor history.

There are 20 names in all, starting on two tribes of 10. The Edge of Extinction twist is back, much to the annoyance of many, but it makes sense as a chance to keep our favorite castaways around all season even after they get voted out. Nobody wants to see Boston Rob or Parvati disappear after the season premiere. There will be idols, no doubt, and there are apparently fire tokens which players will be able to use to buy advantages, too. Hopefully there aren’t too many twists and Jeff lets these folks play the game we love.

This isn’t our first Survivor All-Star season, so what can we learn from past All-Star seasons that might tell us how Winners at War might go? How do the early tribes break down? And who will ultimately be our winner?

Let’s break it all down before the biggest season in Survivor history…

What have we learned from past All-Star seasons?

Three years ago, I went back and rewatched every old Survivor All-Star season in preparation for Survivor: Game Changers and found 10 patterns worth remembering. You can read the full analysis here, but it’s worth recalling some of the patterns and how they might play into things in Season 40.

1. Beware the power of framing.

With Game Changers, that pushed people into BIG moves and led to a jury content to vote for someone that had screwed over many of them. With David vs Goliath, Heroes vs Villains, and others, it affected how players saw themselves. Winners at War doesn’t have as strong a framing device, but beware players often spoken of as weaker winners trying too hard to prove themselves this time out. Michele and Sophie come to mind.

2. An All-Star season is far more personal.

Remember, this game is more than just 39 days. These folks all know each other and interact in real life, and you just don’t play the same way in that case. Some will always “play the game” and backstab while others would never betray a real-life friend. There are longtime friendships out there in All-Star seasons. Heck, we have a husband and wife in this game! Don’t forget there’s a lot more in play than what we see on television.

3. Never forget past season relationships.

Remember, these guys all played before, many several times, meaning they’ve won and lost. Some have long memories about that one person that screwed them over. Sandra and Tony went head-to-head early on Game Changers. Tony and Sarah were Cops R Us turned foes and have played two seasons against each other already. Natalie and Jeremy worked together in San Juan before Natalie took off without him. Amber, Rob, and Ethan were on the original All Stars, and Rob, Parvati, Tyson, and Sandra all competed in Heroes vs Villains. There’s a LOT of history in play here.

4. The perceived threats tend to go pretty early.

This is always a bummer in All-Star seasons. Everyone gets excited to see headliners like Boston Rob, Sandra, and Parvati, the biggest names in Survivor history. But that inevitably makes them huge threats from the drop, and the biggest threats often go head-to-head early, leaving lesser knowns around late. Be prepared for that likely disappointment, but the disappointment always fades for a strong finish — don’t forget, everyone else is an All-Star too.

5. Women have an advantage in All-Star seasons.

Women have outnumbered men on the jury every All-Star season, and they’ve won the game three out of four true All-Star seasons. This is a bit of a reflection of rule #4. The men are often the biggest, brashest winners and tend to duke it out early and remain big, obvious, physical threats all game. There are so many meat shields, while the subtler social games do not appear as threatening. Note, though, that older and more unathletic women often go out early in All-Star seasons for tribes desperate for an easy target and a way to keep the tribe strong. That could be bad news for Sandra in particular, maybe Denise. It’s great news overall for names like Kim, Sophie, Danni, and Natalie.

6. Past loyalists tend to stay true to alliances.

Old-school Survivor was about longstanding alliances and loyalty, so many old-school players were known for being strong and true. Such players stayed that way in their return — names like Rupert and Big Tom in All Stars, Coach and Jerri (and Rupert again) in HvV, Keith and Kimmi in Cambodia, Sierra and Tai in Game Changers. Every one of these players made the merge but all of them were discarded conveniently once they arrived by alliance leaders that used them as numbers until they weren’t needed. I worry here for players like Yul, Ethan, or Amber.

7. Recent castaways are unknown — and dangerous.

Most All-Star seasons have at least one character from a season we’ve watched at home that players on the island have never seen. Who can forget Russell Hantz making back-to-back finals with the exact same strategy? They had no idea who he was. But our most recent winner here is Nick Wilson, who everyone saw play, so this one isn’t applicable.

8. Beware lone representatives from past seasons.

Typically there’s only one or two lone representative from a past season in an All-Star year. There were two in All Stars (Rupert and Shii Ann), one in HvV (Russell), and one in Game Changers (Troyzan). Each of them made the final six, two final jury. Lone wolves tend to operate freely without a big target from opponents who don’t know their games as well. But this season is much more like Cambodia. There were seven lone reps there and there’s nine here since so many played and won their only season. In Cambodia, with so many lone reps, the past relationships actually played a huge part in helping players get to the end. That could turn out to be good news for some of the old-school winners if they can hang around long enough.

9. Beware the “Why are THEY here?!” women.

Inevitably in an All-Star season, some stars just feel a bit starrier than others. Go ahead and list off the names playing in this season. Don’t tell me you didn’t list off Rob, Sandra, Parvati, Tyson, Kim, Yul, and others first while struggling to remember names like Sophie, Michele, and Danni. Every All-Star season there are one or two names that just don’t make sense in the pregame cast. But those players almost always fly way under the radar with so many other huge targets. Think of Sierra and Hali in Game Changers, Wentworth in Cambodia, Danielle and Candice in HvV, and Jenna and Amber in All Stars. Amber won, and almost all of those under-the-radar women made deep runs.

10. Past near-winners are in trouble.

All-Stars that get so close but come up short tend to try too hard to fix what they perceive to be their One Big Mistake from last time out. Of course, these guys all won, so it’s not really an issue here. But remember, nine of them also lost previously, with Parvati, Rob, and Jeremy particularly stinging losses near the end. It could always come into play.

What can we make of our opening tribes?

I suppose this is a slight spoiler if you really want to go in with fresh eyes, but since the opening tribe lists are out, they’re worth considering.

We know now that there will be plenty of tribe swaps, but with 20 players, you figure these will be the tribes until 15 or 16 remain. Here are my initial thoughts on these mixes of castaways.

SELE TRIBE Adam, Ben, Ethan, Jeremy, Rob Danni, Denise, Michele, Natalie, Parvati

This is a pretty odd tribe mix. The biggest thing you notice right away is a real generational divide. Rob, Parvati, and Ethan are old-school players, even with returns, and Denise is the oldest player in the game. Everyone else feels younger and newer except for Danni, but she sort of fits in with that crowd.

This doesn’t seem like the strongest tribe. Boston Rob is a challenge beast legend, and maybe the younger mix helps even things out, but particularly on sheer strength, I like Dakal much better. Unless Rob can organize this tribe early, I could see them being at tribal often.

It feels like a pretty chill tribe overall. Again, that makes me feel like Danni will fit in, though I worry about Ben’s fit. I don’t like this tribe at all for Parvati. Who is she doing to flirt and connect with here? I’m not sure I see anyone susceptible to her wile. I worry for her early. Parvati and Rob are the obvious major targets here, and Rob is much better at forging quick, strong alliances.

This tribe will certainly have a heck of a shelter. So there’s that.

DAKAL TRIBE Nick, Tony, Tyson, Wendell, Yul Amber, Kim, Sandra, Sarah, Sophie

The biggest thing that jumps out on this tribe is that I love the trio of Kim, Amber, and Sophie. They seem like-minded and I could see them working together all game long if they connect, maybe Sarah too. Sandra does not fit into that group to me. It’s hard to look at this tribe and not see Sandra and Tony battling immediately for control, like they did in Game Changers.

I like this tribe a lot in challenges. I could see them only hitting one of the first four tribals, potentially. That would be even better news for a potential burgeoning Kim-Sophie-Amber alliance. I worried Amber could be an early target for a tribe trying to take a shot at Rob, but there seem to be too many bigger targets for that here.

Who does Nick connect with here? I’m not sure he fits. Wendell and Tyson are interesting. Wendell worked with Dom out of necessity last time. Those two working together could be pretty unstoppable.

I don’t see any way both Sandra and Tony survive early. And I worry a bit about Sarah meshing with those two. Those are the names I’d worry about dropping out early here.

Alright, enough talk. Let’s get to the rankings.

So who has the best chance to win again?

I haven’t scoured the internet for spoilers or listened to any preview podcasts. This is just how I view these castaways and who I think most likely to win.

And let’s be clear here: this is not at all the order I think these folks will be voted out. I’m just looking for the most likely players to win the season. Here are my rankings from least to most likely…

WAY TOO OBVIOUS A THREAT

20. Tony Vlachos

Tony is uber-aggressive and over the top, and it appears to be his personality and the only way he can play. He reminds me of one of the Big Brother players that’s super entertaining early but destined to be one of the first few names to go home. I just can’t see his style lasting.

19. Rob Mariano

Boston Rob is an icon, and he’s been on about a quarter of the seasons at this point. But he’s just a living walking threat at every turn, especially so because his wife is on the show. At no point in any tribal should Rob ever feel safe, and there’s just no way the castaways let him even sniff a final tribal.

Rob is a challenge puzzle, so he’s a major threat to return from Edge of Extinction but he’d have to Chris Underwood his way to the end, and even then, I’m not sure the jury votes for him in this sort of season.

18. Parvati Shallow

Many consider Parvati the greatest Survivor player ever, and perhaps she should be the sole two-time winner and not Sandra from HvV. Parvati is so wily and sharp, but everyone sees it coming now, both the men and the women. With an older, more mature cast, this just doesn’t feel like the right cast for Parvati.

17. Sandra Diaz-Twine

Sandra’s strategy fits an All-Star season pretty well — anyone but me. That works when there are so many big targets. But as the only two-time winner, Sandra is one of those targets herself. I have her highest in this group because she gets more dangerous the longer she lasts, and I think any jury would feel compelled to give her the win if she somehow made it there a third time, but I think she goes out early again.

I DON’T BELIEVE ENOUGH IN THEIR GAME PLAY

16. Ben Driebergen

Honestly, Ben would probably be my last pick in a winner draft. I just don’t see him fitting in with this cast. He comes off gruff and a bit unlikable, and his win didn’t impress me since it was mostly a million idols and an unexpected fire twist. Maybe that makes him overlooked, but I just don’t buy it.

15. Nick Wilson

Nick is our most recent winner, which means he’s had the least time to connect and build real-world relationships with some of these past winners. He’s also our youngest player. Nick benefited from David vs Goliath framing last time and I thought he screwed up some of his alliances. He was also lucky to survive early after coming off lazy and looking too obviously for idols.

14. Denise Stapley

Denise and Malcolm got crushed challenge after challenge. She literally attended every tribal council in her season, and obviously she survived them all and became our oldest female winner at age 41. But I think a lot of her win was based on the Outlast component with not a ton of other play highlighted, and I worry about her age and challenge ability.

13. Michele Fitzgerald

Michele is exactly the sort of overlooked player my study favors, but I just can’t talk myself into her. I never really felt like she deserved her win in a wonky season with odd editing, and she was only on the right side of four votes all season. That ties Chris Underwood for fewest ever by a winner, and Chris barely even played Survivor. I have a feeling Michele may try to overplay to prove herself, or just sort of blend in until she’s not needed anymore. The only reason I thought about ranking her higher is just because it literally makes no sense.

HAS THE GAME PASSED THEM BY?

12. Yul Kwon

Yul feels like the most obvious old-school loyalist to me. I can see him lasting a long time as a trustworthy ally but getting cut when he doesn’t see it coming, or I could see him going early-ish as a faux big target. Yul has also announced he’d give his winnings to charity in honor of Penner, and as awesome as that is, I think it weirdly makes him too big a jury threat if he gets close.

11. Ethan Zohn

Speaking of huge jury threats, can I interest you in a good-looking, fun-loving dude that’s beat cancer twice just to be able to get back on the show again? Ethan feels old-school too, though he seems like a fan of the game that’s probably followed things as they’ve morphed in time, but really, there’s just no way they’re dumb enough to let Ethan sit in front of a final jury.

10. Amber Mariano

If it weren’t for Edge of Extinction, Amber might have made my top three. She has like seven seasons of game play history when you count Rob, and she is a perfect fit as that overlooked non-target that could make strong social bonds and last late. But with EoE, Rob will always be a threat, and that makes Amber a threat. All other 18 people know they’ll never break into that two-person alliance, never get their vote in a jury if the other is a candidate. It’s just too tough a target to overcome.

SOMETHING JUST FEELS OFF

9. Sarah Lacina

My initial thought when I looked at this cast was that Sarah was my winner pick. She’s a very strong player that was terrific her last time out, shocking her tribemates by backstabbing and manipulating them en route to a win. But then I remembered everyone else knows that too. Sarah is so strong-willed, and she’s now known for betraying everyone’s trust and playing super hard.

In Game Changers, I backed Ciera as a possible winner and then watched her go home in the premiere. Sarah feels like this season’s Ciera.

8. Danni Boatwright

I’ve gone back and forth on Danni and settled somewhere in the middle. Part of me thinks she was not a very good winner, riding an underdog role and a bitter jury to an undeserved win over Stephenie LaGrossa. Part of me likes that about her because maybe she’ll be overlooked as a non-threat. Ultimately I worry that one of biggest strengths is her ability to work with the guys as a bit of a tomboy, and I see this as a female-dominated season.

7. Adam Klein

I started typing Adam’s section four times before settling on listing him here, moving slowly up each time, so perhaps that bodes well. Opposite of Danni, I like Adam’s ability to get along with the girls in something of a little brother role. He’s super likable and is a superfan of the game, so I expect him to know how these castaways operate.

But ultimately I don’t super respect his game. That was a wonky, random season with alliances that changed every week. If they played Millennials vs Gen X again 100 times, I’m not sure Adam would win more than 5–7 times. I can’t talk myself into him… but had a hard time talking myself out of him too.

DEFINITE WINNER POTENTIAL IF THINGS BREAK RIGHT

6. Natalie Anderson

It’s getting pretty tough to order these names near the top now. I could talk myself into any of these final six as a winner pick. I really like Natalie, but she has a strong personality that could clash and make her a more obvious target, and she’s another one that’s more of a tomboy and I don’t see her fitting in as well in a female-dominated season.

5. Wendell Holland

It’s really hard to pick against Wendell, who I’m realizing is one of my favorite Survivor winners ever. Wendell was a threat all game in Ghost Island but outlasted everyone, though he’s also the least winning-y winner ever since he’s the only tiebreak winner ever. Wendell is strong and loyal and gets along with everyone, forging real relationships, and in a cast with a lot of big male targets, it’s hard to see Wendell targeted early.

But it’s also hard to see him being a big enough name to lead an alliance like last time. Can he get to the end as part of an alliance instead of the one calling the shots, and can he adjust his game to win if he does?

4. Jeremy Collins

Jeremy would be my winner pick if I were picking a guy, but it should be obvious by now that I am not. Jeremy is great with both men and women. Everyone loves him. He’s strong and social and builds great alliances. He’s a leader but knows how to be part of an alliance. He’s one of five unanimous winners in Survivor history.

Jeremy should be a huge threat as a good-looking firefighter everyone loves but always seems a bit overlooked, and I could see that again. If he finds the right alliance and gets the right bounces, he could win this thing. But I can’t pick everyone.

BOOM OR BUST POTENTIAL

3. Tyson Apostol

Tyson is a big threat in theory, but he’s so darn jovial and likable that it’s just really easy to talk yourself into keeping him around awhile longer. Tyson is everyone’s friend. He’s obviously a challenge monster, which makes him a threat late in the game as well as on Edge of Extinction. Could he be sent there early on as a protection against Boston Rob dominating?

Tyson gets smarter and better each time he’s on Survivor, and this is his fourth go. If he finds a lane and gets a head of steam, he’ll be really hard to stop. I think he’s too obvious a threat, but not every big threat can go early, and Tyson has a better shot of slipping past the vote than guys like Rob and Tony. He’s a nice moderate age that should connect with both generations of players here. There’s just a lot to like if he finds a path.

2. Kim Spradlin-Wolfe

Honestly, I could see Kim do this. I really like how the season sets up for her. Any true Survivor fan knows Kim is one of the all-time greats, but she’s just a way less obvious threat than many of the bigger names. How much do you have to go after Kim when Sandra and Parvati are out there, let alone all the guys duking it out?

Kim is quiet but strong and savvy. She’s a triple threat with social game, strategy, and challenge ability, and she gets more dangerous the longer she stays and builds relationships with the folks around her. It’s just impossible not to trust Kim. Those eyes. You just look into those eyes and believe you can go all the way with Kim, and I think some of the younger castaways could look up to her.

All the better that I love Kim’s initial tribe setup, setting her up with another strong potential women’s alliance with Amber, Sophie, and Sarah. Kim can win this thing, and she would take the title of Survivor GOAT if she does.

MY WINNER PICK

1. Sophie Clarke

I’m going with my gut.

I believe in the Kim-Sophie-Amber-etc alliance controlling this game in a season I think will be dominated by women with the big threats going out early. I love the overlooked names, especially the women. All of that weighs heavily in Sophie’s favor.

Sophie played a quiet game and bested Coach in what felt at the time like a bitter jury, but Coach was never going to win Survivor and I give Sophie credit for riding with him to the end and then crushing him with one of the great jury performances.

Sophie is loyal and confident. She’s nimble in strategy. She reminds me in many ways of Kim. And in the end, I think she rides with Kim a long ways but then does what no one else has done — sees through the Kim sheen and cuts her just in time, getting to the end with the biggest Survivor scalp of them all and winning Survivor: Winners at War.

Let the games begin… ■

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