Expect the Unexpected When This Year’s Emmy Nominations Are Unveiled
Of the 15 series nominated for Outstanding Drama and Comedy Series at the Primetime Emmys last year, over half are ineligible this year. That means we can expect an unprecedented amount of turnover in key categories when the nomination for the 71st Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are announced on Tuesday, July 16th at 8:30am. Other highlights of the morning will be to see how perennial winners Game of Thrones and Veep fair for their swan songs and who makes the cut in the brutally competitive Limited Series categories.
10 THINGS TO KNOW BEFORE YOU READ MY PREDICTIONS
- In short, the Emmys are to television what the Oscars are to film, the Tonys are to theater, and the Grammys are to music. (If one individual wins one of each, they are known as an EGOT recipient.)
- This year will mark the 71st consecutive year the ceremony has been held. The first ceremony aired on January 25, 1949. (Fun fact: the legendary Betty White, who continues to be active at age 97, scored her first nomination at the 3rd Annual Emmys in 1951.)
- The eligibility period for this year is June 1, 2018 and May 31, 2019. Thus, any series that aired all (or the majority of) its most recent season outside that time frame is ineligible.
- The awards are voted on by members of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (ATAS), which currently numbers around 24,000. Voting for the nominees is by the respective branches (e.g., actors vote for the acting categories, directors vote for the directing categories), with the exception of the series awards which all are allowed to vote on. The voting period for nominations occurred in June.
- The series nominees are currently limited to 7 and the acting nominees are currently limited to 6. (Nevertheless, the Academy allows for more nominees in the case of ties, which seems to happen more frequently than makes sense statistically).
- The ceremony is split into two, with the “major” categories (Outstanding Series, lead and supporting acting, writing, and directing) announced during the main ceremony and several dozen “minor” (mostly technical achievements) being presented at the Creative Arts Emmy ceremony, which takes place the preceding weekend.
- The winners will be voted on in August by special judging panels made up of a subset of ATAS members.
- This year, the Emmys will air on Fox on Sunday, September 22nd at 8pm EST/5pm PST. No other details about the ceremony (e.g., who will host, who will produce) have been announced.
- Last year, 48 of the 62 (77.4%) nominees that I predicted went on to reap an actual Emmy nomination (with equal success rates in Comedy and Drama). I’m hoping I can increase that this year, but am not optimistic given how much turnover there will be in the major categories.
- Actors Ken Jeong and D’Arcy Carden will present the nominees at 8:30 AM PST on Tuesday, July 16th.
COMEDY SERIES PREDICTIONS
Outstanding Comedy Series: The big news in this category this year is that after sitting out the 2018 Emmys due to a production delay related to producer/star Julia Louis-Dreyfus’s cancer treatments, HBO’s Veep is back in the running. The show was nominated in this category for 6 consecutive years between 2012 and 2017, won in 2016 and 2017, and aired its final batch of 7 episodes this past spring to considerable acclaim. It is guaranteed a spot. Last year, Amazon’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel benefitted from Veep’s absence and became the first streaming series to win the top comedy prize. Although some of the buzz wore off in Season Two, it should still easily score a nomination. Also likely to return are HBO’s Barry (the second season of which garnered even more acclaim than the first) and Netflix’s GLOW (the new season of which is being released at the height of the voting period). It’s also possible we will see a 5th nomination for Netflix’s Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, which aired its last batch of episodes earlier this year, and a 4th nomination for ABC’s Black-ish, which may again be the only broadcast network series in this category.
With three of last year’s nominees ineligible this year (Fx’s Atlanta and HBO’s Curb Your Enthusiasm and Silicon Valley), there will be at least one fresh nominee here. Netflix has a good shot with three of its new comedies: the hugely pedigreed The Kominsky Method (produced by Chuck Lorre and starring Oscar winners Michael Douglas and Alan Arkin), the high concept Russian Doll (starring Natasha Lyonne), and the darkly comic Dead to Me (starring Christina Applegate and Linda Cardellini). Meanwhile, Amazon has the critically revered Fleabag (produced by and starring Phoebe Waller-Bridge) and CBS has the record-breaking final season of its mega-hit The Big Bang Theory.
Sadly, the one show that I think most deserves to be here probably won’t make the cut — PopTV’s Schitt’s Creek. (The small Canadian show doesn’t have the budget for big Emmy campaigns and is just now breaking out in a big way.)
Predicted Nominees: Barry (HBO); Black-ish (ABC); Fleabag (Amazon); GLOW (Netflix); The Kominsky Method (HBO); The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon); Veep (HBO). (Note: If there’s 8 nominees, throw in Kimmy Schmidt as it has never missed a nomination here and the only error I made in this category last year was predicting its omission.)
Outstanding Lead Actress: As mentioned, Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep) is back in the running and likely to extend her astonishing record of going 6 wins-for-6 nominations in this role. She will face fierce competition from last year’s winner, Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel). The remaining 5 nominees from last year are eligible again: Tracie Ellis Ross (Black-ish), Allison Janney(CBS’s Mom), Issa Rae (HBO’s Insecure), Lily Tomlin (Netflix’s Grace & Frankie), and Pamela Adlon (Fx’s Better Things). One could make a solid argument for each of them reaping an additional nomintion this year, but they face some fierce competition from a quintet of brilliant women who have yet to be nominated for their shows: Phoebe Waller-Bridge (Fleabag), Natasha Lyonne (Russian Doll), Christina Applegate (Dead to Me), Catherine O’Hara (Schitt’s Creek), and Kristen Bell (The Good Place). There’s also the possibility that Candice Bergen’s return to her iconic role in CBS’s Murphy Brown will be honored or that Debra Messing will be rightfully rewarded for her some of her series-best work on this season of NBC’s Will & Grace (NBC).
- Predicted Nominees: Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon); Allison Janney, Mom (CBS); Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep (HBO); Natasha Lyonne, Russian Doll (Netflix); Tracie Ellis Ross, Black-ish (ABC); Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag (Amazon).
Outstanding Lead Actor: Last year’s winner Bill Hader (Barry) seems likely to repeat this year. Expect him to be joined in the category by last year’s nominees Anthony Anderson (ABC’s Black-ish) and Ted Danson (NBC’s The Good Place). It will be interesting to see William H. Macy return yet again for Showtime’s Shameless given his involvement with the college admission scandal (my guess is not). With Macy likely out and two of last year’s nominees ineligible (Larry David and Donald Glover), there will undoubtedly be some fresh blood in the category. The most obvious candidate is Oscar-winning film legend Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method), but well-known stars like Jim Carrey (Showtime’s Kidding), Ricky Gervais (Netflix’s After Life), and Don Cheadle (Showtime’s Black Monday) also have a good shot. My guess is that only one of that trio gets nominated and the 6th spot goes to Jim Parson’s for The Big Bang Theory. He previously won 4 Emmys for his role but wasn’t even nominated for the last few seasons. One last nomination for the final season seems like something that the Emmys might do.
- Predicted Nominees: Anthony Anderson, Black-ish (ABC); Ted Danson, The Good Place (NBC); Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method (Netflix); Ricky Gervais, After Life (Netflix); Bill Hader, Barry (HBO); Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory (CBS).
Outstanding Supporting Actress: Some sort of crazy tie resulted in their being 2 extra nominees in this category last year. And of those 8 nominees, 7 are eligible this year — Alex Borstein (last year’s winner for The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), Laurie Metcalf (last year ABC’s Roseanne, this year Roseanne’s Roseanne-less continuation The Connors), Megan Mullally (Will & Grace), Betty Gilpin (GLOW), and Saturday Night Live (NBC) regulars Kate McKinnon, Leslie Jones, and Aidy Bryant. (Only Atlanta’s Zazie Beetz ineligible). Two others likely to score nomination are Veep’s Anna Chlumsky, as she has scored 5 consecutive nominations for her role, and Fleabag’s Olivia Colman, as her profile skyrocketed following her recent Oscar win. Other possible nominees include Marin Hinkle (whose role on The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel was significantly expanded this season), Jane Krakowski (who will sadly never have won an Emmy for her brilliant comic turn on Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt), and Sarah Goldberg (who, unlike her costars, was unnominated for Barry last year).
- Predicted Nominees: Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon); Anna Chlumsky, Veep (HBO); Olivia Colman, Fleabag (Amazon); Leslie Jones, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Laurie Metcalf, The Connors (ABC).
Outstanding Supporting Actor: A tie led to 7 nominees in the category last year, 4 of whom are eligible this time around—Henry Winkler (last year’s winner for Barry), Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), Kenan Thompson (Staturday Night Live), and Titus Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt). (Brian Tyree Henry’s Atlanta and Louie Anderson’s Baskets didn’t air any new episodes during the eligibility period, while Alec Baldwin didn’t make enough appearances on Saturday Night Live to be eligible in this category). All 4 could easily make it back in with Oscar winner Alan Arkin (The Kominsky Method) and 2-time prior winner Tony Hale (Veep) rounding out the category. Others with a shot include Veep’s Matt Walsh and Timothy Simons, Barry’s Anthony Carrigan and Stephen Root, and Will & Grace’s Sean Hayes. If I could will one surprise nomination on Emmy morning it would be Dan Levy’s performance on Schitt’s Creek in this category. Alas, it seems like a long shot.
Predicted Nominees: Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method (Netflix); Titus Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix); Tony Hale, Veep (HBO); Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon); Matt Walsh, Veep (HBO).
DRAMA SERIES PREDICTIONS
Outstanding Drama Series: The morning’s most unpredictable announcement will undoubtedly be this category, which found a whopping 5 of 7 last year’s nominees ineligible this year (Fx’s The Americans wrapped its run last Emmy cycle, while Netflix’s The Crown and Stranger Things, Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale, and HBO’s Westworld didn’t air new seasons in the eligibility period.) And the two that did return face significant hurdles. The final season of HBO’s 3-time winner Game of Thrones feels much less assured after the very chilly reception its final batch of episodes got and NBC’s This is Us has significantly declined in buzz (even though it still pulls in strong ratings). Nevertheless, expect both of them to return. But who will join them? Good money is on AMC’s Better Call Saul, which should return to the category after a year of ineligibility and BBC America’s Killing Eve and Netflix’s Ozark, both of which scored a few major nominations for their first seasons last year despite missing out in this category. Amazon’s high-pedigree Homecoming also feels like a good bet (even though it feels far more like a limited series to me.) The last slot will likely go one of the following: Fx’s Pose, Netflix’s Bodyguard, HBO’s Succession, and CBS All Access’s The Good Fight. It’s also not wise to rule out perennial nominees like Netflix’s (Kevin Spacey-free final season of) House of Cards and Fx’s American Horror Story (which vacated the Limited Series category this year due to the fact that it continued storylines from prior installments).
- Predicted Nominees: Better Call Saul (AMC); Game of Thrones (HBO); Homecoming (Amazon); Killing Eve (BBC America); Ozark (Netflix); Pose (Fx); This is Us (NBC).
Outstanding Lead Actress: Of last year’s 6 nominees, only Killing Eve’s Sandra Oh is eligible this year and that’s just one of the many reasons she’s a lock for a nomination. It is also a safe bet to expect Robin Wright as a returning nominee for House of Cards, as she has been nominated every prior year she was eligible and gained a lot of respect in Hollywood for how she classily stepped up to finish the show after her co-star’s disgrace. As for the other 4 slots, three look like sure bets: Oscar-winning movie icon Julia Roberts for her series television debut in Homecoming, beloved industry vet Laura Linney for her work on Ozark, and Jodie Comer for her brilliant turn as Sandra Oh’s twisted other half on Killing Eve. The final spot should go to Christine Baranski for her sterling work on The Good Fight (which was unjustly overlooked the last two years), but it seems slightly more likely that it will go to Game of Thrones’ Emilia Clarke (who survived her final season character assassination with tremendous grace). Long shots include MJ Rodriguez for Pose and Mandy Moore for This is Us.
- Predicted Nominees: Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones (HBO); Jodie Comer, Killing Eve (BBC America); Laura Linney, Ozark (Netflix); Sandra Oh, Killing Eve (BBC America); Julia Roberts, Homecoming (Amazon); Robin Wright, House of Cards (Netflix).
Outstanding Lead Actor: Of last year’s 6 nominee in this category, 3 are ineligible (The Americans’ Matthew Rhys and Westworld’s Ed Harris and Jeffrey Wright). It seems safe to bet on the return of the other three — Ozark’s Jason Bateman and This is Us’s Sterling K. Brown and Milo Ventimiglia. (Although I suspect Ventimiglia is vulnerable.) For the remaining 3 (or 4) spots, the best bets are the return of Better Call Saul’s Bob Odenkirk and the first nominations for Bodyguard’s Richard Madden, Pose’s Billy Porter, Homecoming’s Stephen James, and Succession’s Brian Cox. Also possible (although undeserved) would be Game of Thrones’ Kit Harrington.
- Predicted Nominees: Jason Bateman, Ozark (Netflix); Sterling K. Brown, This is Us (NBC); Stephen James, Homecoming (Amazon); Richard Madden, Bodyguard (Netflix); Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul (AMC); Billy Porter, Pose (Fx).
Outstanding Supporting Actress: Astoundingly, only 1 of last year’s 6 nominees is eligible —Game of Thrones’ Lena Headey. She is sure to return with 2 or 3 of her co-stars, with Maisie Williams, Sophie Turner, and Gwendoline Christie all being very worthy of nominations despite the uneven quality of the last season. Ozark breakout Julia Garner seems like a sure thing as well. The final 2–3 spots could go to any pair of the following: Killing Eve’s Fiona Shaw, Better Call Saul’s Rhea Seehorn, Homecoming’s Sissy Spacek, and This is Us’s Chrissy Metz and Susan Kelechi Watson.
- Predicted Nominees: Julia Garner, Ozark (Netflix); Lena Headey, Game of Thrones (HBO); Fiona Shaw, Killing Eve (BBC America); Sophie Turner, Game of Thrones (HBO); Susan Kelechi Watson, This is Us (NBC); Maisie Williams, Game of Thrones (HBO)
Outstanding Supporting Actor: Of last year’s 6 nominees, only Game of Thrones’s co-stars Peter Dinklage (who seems far ahead for the win) and Nikolaj Castor-Waldau. Previous nominees Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul) and Michael Kelly (House of Cards) seem likely to join them. For the last two spots, expect a pair of the following: Succession’s Kieran Culkin, Homecoming’s Bobby Cannavale and Shea Whigham, This is Us’s Justin Hartley, and Better Call Saul’s Giancarlo Esposito.
Predicted Nominees: Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul (AMC); Bobby Cannavale, Homecoming (Amazon); Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Game of Thrones (HBO); Kiern Culkin, Succession (HBO); Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones (HBO); Michael Kelly, House of Cards (Netflix).
LIMITED SERIES AND MADE-FOR-TELEVISION MOVIE PREDICTIONS
Outstanding Limited Series: This absolutely stacked category seems to have more can’t-miss nominees than it has open slots. It is hard to imagine Escape at Dannemora (Showtime), Chernobyl (HBO), Fosse/Verdon (Fx), When They See Us (Netflix), Sharp Objects (HBO), A Very English Scandal (Amazon), or Catch-22 (Hulu) missing the cut. I bet they end up nominating 6 of those 7 with the latter three being the most vulnerable. Other possibilities include the latest installment of True Detective (HBO), The Act (Hulu), Les Miserables (PBS), and Maniac (Netflix).
Predicted Nominees: Chernobyl (HBO); Escape at Dannemora (Showtime); Fosse/Verdon (Fx); Sharp Objects (HBO); A Very English Scandal (Amazon); When They See Us (Netflix).
Outstanding Made for Television Movie: In recent years, this has been the weakest lineup due to the waning popularity of the made-for-television movie. This year is no exception with only Black Mirror: Bandersnatch (Netflix), Deadwood: The Movie (HBO), and Brexit: The Uncivil War (HBO) gaining any major traction. Possibly rounding out the category are King Lear (Amazon), My Dinner with Herve (HBO), Native Son (HBO), Sense8 (Netflix), and The Romanoffs (Amazon).
Predicted Nominees: Black Mirror: Bandersnatch (Netflix); Brexit: The Uncivil War (HBO); Deadwood: The Movie (HBO); King Lear (Amazon); Native Son (HBO).
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: One of the most competitive categories of the year, this will be a showdown between a trio of women who would each be sure-fire winners in a less competitive year — Patricia Arquette (Escape at Dannemora), Michelle Williams (Fosse/Verdon), and Amy Adams (Sharp Objects). The category will likely be rounded out by 3 of the following group: Emma Stone (Maniac), Niecy Nash (When They See Us), Joey King (The Act), Julianna Margulies (National Geographic’s The Hot Zone), Connie Britton (Bravo’s Dirty John), and Molly Parker (Deadwood: The Movie).
Predicted Nominees: Amy Adams, Sharp Objects (HBO); Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora (Showtime); Connie Britton, Dirty John (Bravo); Niecy Nash, When They See Us (Netflix); Molly Parker, Deadwood: The Movie (HBO); Michelle Williams, Fosse/Verdon (Fx).
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: It is hard to imagine this category without big screen stars Benicio Del Toro (Escape at Dannemora), Sam Rockwell (Fosse/Verdon), and Hugh Grant (A Very English Scandal) being nominated for their portrayals of some remarkably flawed historical figures. Also looking like a solid bet is Mahershala Ali for his acclaimed work on the third installment of True Detective. Other possibilities include Deadwood: The Movie’s Ian McShane and Timothy Olyphant, When They See Us’s Jharrel Jerome, Brexit’s Benedict Cumberbatch, Catch-22’s Christopher Abbott, King Lear’s Anthony Hopkins, Dirty John’s Eric Bana, and Maniac’s Jonah Hill.
Predicted Nominees: Mahershala Ali, True Detective (HBO); Benicio Del Toro, Escape at Dannemora (Showtime); Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal (Amazon); Jharrel Jerome, When They See Us (Netflix); Sam Rockwell, Fosse/Verdon (Fx); Ian McShane, Deadwood: The Movie (HBO).
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: This will likely be a showdown between two Patricias playing truly despicable mothers — The Act’s Patricia Arquette and Sharp Objects’s Patricia Clarkson. The rest will be also-rans and will likely come from the following group: Maniac’s Sally Field, True Detective’s Carmen Ejogo, King Lear’s Emma Thompson, When They See Us’s Vera Farmiga, Chernobyl’s Emily Watson, Sharp Objects’s Eliza Scanlen, and Deadwood: The Movie’s Robin Weigert.
Predicted Nominees: Patricia Arquette, The Act (Hulu); Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects (HBO); Sally Field, Maniac (Netflix); Emma Thompson, King Lear (PBS); Emily Watson, Cherynobyl (HBO); Robin Weigert, Deadwood: The Movie (HBO).
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: Another race that will likely come down to two powerhouse performances — A Very English Scandal’s Ben Whishaw and Escape at Dannemora’s Paul Dano. Fleshing out the category will be a subset of the following actors — Catch-22’s Kyle Chandler and George Clooney, When They See Us’s Michael K. Williams and John Leguizamo, Escape at Dannemora’s Eric Lange, Deadwood: The Movie’s Gerald McRaney, Sharp Objects’s Chris Messina, Cherynobyl’s Stellan Skarsgard, and Fosse/Verdon’s Norbert Leo Blutz.
Predicted Nominees: Kyle Chandler, Catch-22 (Hulu); Paul Dano, Escape at Dannemora (Showtime); Eric Lange, Escape at Dannemora (Showtime); Stellan Skarsgard, Cherynobyl (HBO); Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal (Amazon); Michael K. Williams, When They See Us (Netflix).
Check back Tuesday morning, when I will be publishing my reactions to the nominees.