Super Bowl LIV: Not Knowing Who’s “Supposed” To Win

As someone known for being a guy who loves football at a level that far exceeds what’s healthy, over the past 13 days or so, i’ve been asked the same two questions in a number of permutations: “who do you think will win the Super Bowl, and “who do you want to win the Super Bowl?”

And being completely honest, for the first time in a really long time, the answers to both questions is the same:

I really don’t know.

My initial takeaway from this Super Bowl is that we’re finally getting something different. For only the second time in five years, and the first time in four years, we don’t have to agonize whether it’s okay to root for the New England Patriots, nor do we have to root for a team with the most feculent fan base in the NFL (the Philadelphia Eagles) or a team with an otherwise milquetoast quarterback playing out of his mind in what’s sure to end up as an outlier season (the Atlanta Falcons) to dethrone the Patriots.

Instead, you’ve got the San Francisco 49ers coming out of the NFC. Yes, they did play in the Super Bowl earlier this decade, but they’re almost an entirely different team — starting from the front office, down to the players themselves — than the team that lost to the Baltimore Ravens.

And the Kansas City Chiefs? It’s been exactly half a century since Hank Stram told the Chiefs to “keep matriculating the ball down the field” using plays like 65 Toss Power Trap.

Given what we know about these two teams, the conventional thinking in this game tells you it’s a matchup between the high-octane offense of the Chiefs versus the air-tight defense of the 49ers.

After all, there’s no player in the NFL who combines “transcendent talent” and “overall likability” like Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes and the Chiefs haven’t lost a game since November 10th, and while Mahomes’ average of just over 250 yard and two touchdown passes per game over that span won’t necessarily blow anyone away, the bigger takeaway is that Kansas City is entering this team on a certified hot streak, thanks in large part to Mahomes knocking off the rust from his mid-season knee injury, and vaporizing defenses like the New Mexico desert sand during the Manhattan Project.

But how many times have we been seduced by the “sexy” and seemingly unstoppable offense, that suddenly gets stymied on Super Bowl Sunday (I promise I didn’t intend for that sentence to have as much alliteration as it did)? Every time we talk about the horsepower of Kansas City’s offense, I keep getting flashes of Super Bowl XLII, when even Tom Brady — the maestro of the accumulated 18–0 New England Patriots — publicly scoffed at the idea of being held to 17 or less points by any opponent, only to end up being held to 14 points thanks to the efforts of a New York Giants’ defense anchored by a dynamic and versatile front four on defense.

On the other side, the 49ers boast the 2nd best defense in the NFL, including the 2nd best passing defense as well (both in terms of Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, or DVOA). That group is anchored by a defensive line featuring four former first round picks in the NFL Draft, combined with group of speedy young linebackers, and an underrated secondary headlined by Richard Sherman’s vintage season. Their 17-point margin of victories in both of their playoff games doesn’t nearly tell the story of just how badly San Francisco’s defense suffocated the life out of their opponents.

And yet, the 49ers seemingly impermeable defense ranked 22nd in the NFL in the red zone (60 percent) and in goal-to-go situations (73.1 percent). Again, while they were hell on wheels if they got you in 3rd down situations (their 33.3% rate of conversions allowed was 3rd best in the NFL), they were closer to league average in stopping teams in early down situations.

Even from a purely competitive standpoint, there are legitimate questions as to whether San Francisco’s defensive backs simply lack the athleticism to hang with the Kansas City’s track star-caliber wide receivers. When opposing wide receivers got a clean release off the line against the 49ers’ secondary, they were able to run past them and beat them deep. Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers weren’t able to fully take advantage of those shots (even though Davante Adams did beat Sherman deep on several occasions), but Mahomes’ ability to uncork deep passes from a variety of different platforms is just supernatural.

Given all of that, let’s say you reverse the equation, matching up San Francisco’s offense versus Kansas City’s defense. Even then, there’s no definitive roadmap to either team winning.

Part of me envisions a world in which Jimmy Garoppolo leads San Francisco to a Super Bowl win, followed by countless folks in corporate marketing departments needing Tommy John surgery from how hard they’ll be hurling endorsement dollars at him. But it’s naive to think that, with the Matrix-defying-level of play at quarterback from Mahomes, the 49ers can win with Garoppolo throwing less than 15 times per game (he has a total of 27 passing attempts in the 49ers’ two playoff wins, including the whopping eight attempts in their win over Green Bay).

The door is wide open for Kansas City Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to load up to stop the run, with some level of assurance given running back Tevin Coleman likely not being close to 100% healthy; regardless of the wonderful stories about him over the last week or two, it’s really hard to see Raheem Mostert channeling his inner Timmy Smith, singlehandedly carrying the 49ers to a win.

And yes, as recently as two weeks ago, I myself probably would’ve retorted with: “yeah, but the Chiefs’ defense sucks,” pointing to their #29 ranking in rushing defense DVOA. But in the aforementioned eight-game winning streak, only Oakland’s Josh Jacobs — back in Week 13 — eclipsed 100 yards rushing against Kansas City’s defense; no other running back they faced got close to that mark. For all the talk about the talk about the 49ers’ defensive line, there’s equal radio silence regarding the Chiefs’ defensive line, and the stellar play of Chris Jones, Derrick Nnadi, Mike Pennel, Tanoh Kpassagnon, and rookie Khalen Saunders down the stretch of the season. While everyone buzzes about the uber-loquacious Sherman, the best defensive back on the field on Sunday is probably safety Tyrann Mathieu, who might’ve very well been on of the 5 to 7 best players in the NFL this past season.

With all of the above-stated matchups effectively coming to a draw, I still can’t even figure out who I want to win this game.

Even as a Redskins fan, I would love to live in a world where the fact that Kyle Shanahan — who was supposed to be the heir apparent to Mike Shanahan, when the latter was Washington’s head coach that was hand-selected by Dan Snyder — ends up winning a Super Bowl with another team. Yet, another part of me wants Andy Reid to be rewarded with a Super Bowl win, after being the rare NFL coach “brave” enough to not poo-poo elements of college football offenses, but rather using many of the former’s concepts and adapting them to the pro game.

I want a Super Bowl win to officially complete the apotheosis of Mahomes, making him the torch-bearer of NFL quarterbacks as the Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers era(s) come to a close. But I also want to see a dramatic spike in women between the age of 19 and 79 needing Tommy John surgery, after they join the above-mentioned corporate marketers in throwing out their elbow after flinging their respective underwear at the impossibly handsome Garoppolo.

I want to believe that offense still wins games, but defense still wins championships. But I also want to believe that we’ll see a Michael Jordan-esque performance from one of the single-most gifted quarterbacks in years.

I want to believe that both offenses, both defenses, and the men who oversee their respective units on both teams, are going to bring forward a game plan that’s along the lines of the ones which helped their respective teams dominate their opponents in the playoffs.

I guess what i’m saying is: for the first time in quite some time, i’m not rooting for a particular team or outcome or end result. I’m walking into a game knowing that could be the pinnacle of this brutally beautiful sport we call football.

Pick:

I still don’t have an answer, so i’m just going to sit back and enjoy the last few hours of NFL football, until the end of next summer.

Rajan Nanavati is the editor of HailToTheDistrict.com. You can follow Rajan on Twitter, find the HailToTheDistrict Podcast here, and/or view his writing archives here.