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Abstract

these models (and running a scenario through a number of them), we can evaluate a particular problem and decide on how best to progress without making a mistake.</p><h2 id="a594">Second Order Thinking</h2><p id="b106">When making a decision, we tend to focus on the immediate and direct impact of our initial actions. Second Order Thinking suggests that we think about the impact that our decisions will have further down the line: the consequence of our initial consequences.</p><p id="0da2">The better we can predict this second set of consequences, the better we can make an initial decision on something and, thus, save ourself a whole lot of time and pain further down the road.</p><h2 id="a242">Hanlon’s Razor</h2><p id="7cc0">This is arguably the easiest mental model to adopt.</p><p id="9dd0">Hanlon’s Razor is the belief that people are not intentionally out to get you.</p><p id="3eb5">Instead, any actions that they make towards you are much more likely to be down down to their own lack of knowledge or laziness. As such, any slight towards you is likely to be unintentional. To assume otherwise is very self centred and, statistically not likely.</p><h2 id="1143">Inversion</h2><p id="8323">Our natural solution for trying to solve a problem is to look at our current situation and figure out how to move forward from there.</p><p id="6d1d">Inversion is about turning a problem upside down and look it from the opposite angle. For example:</p><ul><li>Start by looking at the end of the problem. What’s the solution that you’re trying to achieve? Work backwards from there.</li><li>Instead of thinking how to succeed, have a think about what would need to be done to avoid failure</li></ul><h2 id="b5f0">Occam’s Razor</h2><p id="36c7">This is arguably the

Options

most commonly known mental model. Occam’s razor is the belief that, when all other things are equal, the simplest solution is usually the correct one.</p><h2 id="dd65">Thought Experiment</h2><p id="dafd">Thought Experiments allow us to run through various scenarios in our head when evaluating a particular situation.</p><ul><li>What would be the result if x and y were to happen.</li><li>Historically speaking, what would my business look like two years from now if I decided to write short form content on Twitter rather than longer form content on Medium?</li></ul><p id="e43b">The more that we can run all the eventualities of a particular scenario in our head (and walk through the subsequent causes and effects), the greater our chance of understanding something and therefore the smaller chance that we have of making a mistake.</p><h1 id="b84a">One last thing</h1><p id="3a13">If you found the article above useful, then there are three things you can do to support my writing:</p><ol><li>Hit those clapping hands so that other people with your interests will become aware of it. Hopefully, they’ll find it useful too</li><li>Follow me here on Medium so that you become the first to know when similar content is posted</li><li>Carry on the conversation. Either leave me a message here or get in touch on <a href="https://twitter.com/simontheakston">Twitter/X</a> or <a href="https://mastodon.social/@theakywrites">Mastodon</a>. I promise I’ll get back to you!</li></ol><p id="927e"><b>Disclaimer</b>: This article contains affiliate links to Amazon. If you click on the link and go on to purchase the book, I will earn a small commission to support my writing at no extra no cost to you. This is massively appreciated — thank you very much!</p></article></body>

Summaries of five mental models to help you make the right decision at the first time of asking

“I don’t want to be a great problem solver. I want to avoid problems — prevent them from happening and doing it right from the beginning” (Peter Bevelin)

One of the best books I’ve had this year was “The Great Mental Models” by Shane Parrish and Rhiannon Beaubien. I found it thought-provoking and inspiring and I have been trying to implement some of its content into my daily life.

What follows below is a quick overview of the main mental models discussed. If any of them resonate, I’d thoroughly recommend reading about them in more detail. You can find the book on Amazon here.

What is a mental model?

Many of the situations we find ourselves in contain a large number of complex details — some of which we’re in control of, and some of which are in the control of someone else.

A mental model is a way to simplify the situation and allow our brains to get a grip on what’s going on. They allow our brain to break down what is happening into chunks that are easier to handle. We then use those chunks, on a daily basis, to make decisions and decide on our next steps.

By understanding these models (and running a scenario through a number of them), we can evaluate a particular problem and decide on how best to progress without making a mistake.

Second Order Thinking

When making a decision, we tend to focus on the immediate and direct impact of our initial actions. Second Order Thinking suggests that we think about the impact that our decisions will have further down the line: the consequence of our initial consequences.

The better we can predict this second set of consequences, the better we can make an initial decision on something and, thus, save ourself a whole lot of time and pain further down the road.

Hanlon’s Razor

This is arguably the easiest mental model to adopt.

Hanlon’s Razor is the belief that people are not intentionally out to get you.

Instead, any actions that they make towards you are much more likely to be down down to their own lack of knowledge or laziness. As such, any slight towards you is likely to be unintentional. To assume otherwise is very self centred and, statistically not likely.

Inversion

Our natural solution for trying to solve a problem is to look at our current situation and figure out how to move forward from there.

Inversion is about turning a problem upside down and look it from the opposite angle. For example:

Start by looking at the end of the problem. What’s the solution that you’re trying to achieve? Work backwards from there.
Instead of thinking how to succeed, have a think about what would need to be done to avoid failure

Occam’s Razor

This is arguably the most commonly known mental model. Occam’s razor is the belief that, when all other things are equal, the simplest solution is usually the correct one.

Thought Experiment

Thought Experiments allow us to run through various scenarios in our head when evaluating a particular situation.

What would be the result if x and y were to happen.
Historically speaking, what would my business look like two years from now if I decided to write short form content on Twitter rather than longer form content on Medium?

The more that we can run all the eventualities of a particular scenario in our head (and walk through the subsequent causes and effects), the greater our chance of understanding something and therefore the smaller chance that we have of making a mistake.

One last thing

If you found the article above useful, then there are three things you can do to support my writing:

Hit those clapping hands so that other people with your interests will become aware of it. Hopefully, they’ll find it useful too
Follow me here on Medium so that you become the first to know when similar content is posted
Carry on the conversation. Either leave me a message here or get in touch on Twitter/X or Mastodon. I promise I’ll get back to you!

Disclaimer: This article contains affiliate links to Amazon. If you click on the link and go on to purchase the book, I will earn a small commission to support my writing at no extra no cost to you. This is massively appreciated — thank you very much!