State of the Union Countdown
President Joe Biden will address the nation tomorrow night. What will he say? And what will Americans hear?
Heading into Thursday’s State of the Union address, the Biden reelection campaign is already having a very challenging week.
President Biden’s polling is perhaps the foremost of these challenges. The darkening polling picture for the incumbent president stands as follows:
Wall Street Journal:
National Race: Donald Trump 47; Joe Biden 45
Right Direction/Wrong Direction: 21%/69%
Biden Job Approval: 38%
Generic Ballot: Republican 46, Democrat 42
FOX News:
National Race: Donald Trump 49; Joe Biden 47
Biden Job Approval: 42%
New York Times:
National Race: Donald Trump 48; Joe Biden 44
Right Direction/Wrong Direction: 25%/65%
Biden Job Approval: 38%
A recent New York Times/Sienna poll was particularly brutal for a president hoping for reelection in a few months.
“Voters Doubt Biden’s Leadership and Favor Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds,” blared the New York Times.
“The share of voters who strongly disapprove of President Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency,” Shane Goldmacher revealed for the NYT.
“With eight months left until the November election, Mr. Biden’s 43 percent support lags behind Mr. Trump’s 48 percent in the national survey of registered voters,” Goldmacher wrote.
“Only one in four voters think the country is moving in the right direction,” he added. “More than twice as many voters believe Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them as believe his policies have helped them. A majority of voters think the economy is in poor condition.”
In this tense environment, President Biden will address the nation on Thursday night in the annual State of the Union address. Media outlets have opinions on what the President should say, naturally.
“What Biden Should Say About The Economy During The State of the Union,” advised New Yorker columnist John Cassidy on March 5, 2024. “With the President’s economic approval rating standing at just forty per cent, it’s imperative for him to highlight some of his substantive achievements and talk about the future.”
“To improve his electoral prospects, Biden badly needs to turn those figures around,” Cassidy began. “The State of the Union presents a much needed opportunity for him to talk to the American people about his economic record. Here, with apologies for my lame efforts to capture his folksy syntax, is a suggestion for how he might go about it:”
“This time last year, many economists were predicting a recession following the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates in order to bring down inflation,” Cassidy suggested the President say in his defense. “But, far from slumping, the economy expanded at a faster rate in 2023 than it did in the previous year: 2.5 per cent, compared with 1.9 per cent. In the first three years of my Presidency, inflation-adjusted G.D.P. growth has averaged 3.4 per cent.”
“And here is another comparison, one you may have heard me make before in economic terms, the United States is outpacing the rest of the developed world,” Cassidy suggested the president say next.
There are a few flaws in these suggestions, as other outlets have noted.
First of all, the arguments “Things should be worse” and “Things are worse elsewhere,” don’t carry as much weight as the well-paid members of the journalistic and political classes think they do.
For American families living paycheck to paycheck — a record-breaking number — facing the prospect of layoffs, and an average cost-of-living increase upwards of 30%, empty platitudes about historical trends, raging inflation in Turkey, and federal reserve rate increase hypotheticals flat completely flat.
The average price of a home in California is a staggering $750,000 — well out of reach for most Californian families and getting further all the time now that U.S. mortgage rates are 7.6%.
As a result of concerns about the economy — and other factors — President Biden’s winning coalition of 2020 is showing signs of breakage.
“President Biden’s Fraying Coalition,” warned William Galston for the Wall Street Journal on March 5, 2024. “Young, suburban, and Hispanic voters are deserting him, giving Trump a lead in presidential election polls.”
“Polls are snapshots, not predictions, but the correlation between current results and final outcomes will increase as we near the election,” cautioned Galston. “Even if there are surprises along the way — and it would be shocking if there aren’t any — we can assess the strengths and weaknesses of the major-party candidates as the opening gun sounds.”
“Democrats’ latest problem: 1 in 5 Latino voters are considering switching parties,” added Christian Paz for Vox on March 6, 2024, with one caveat: “Both Democrats and Republicans are considering making a change, but it’s Biden’s party that has more to lose.”
“These are the kind of cross-pressured, persuadable voters that could be won over through smart campaigning, tailored messaging, and exploiting the preexisting sense of dissatisfaction many voters have with both parties,” noted Paz.
Unfortunately for Paz — and Biden — micro-targeted political advertising is something at which the Trump campaign has consistently excelled.
“Biden’s Worst Nightmare: Blacks and Hispanics for Trump,” wrote Jason L. Riley for the Wall Street Journal on March 5, 2024. “The former president picks up support from minority voters because they did better in his economy.”
Besides the economy, working-class Americans suddenly have other worries as well — worries President Joe Biden might want to address during the SOTU.
“Slouching Towards World War III,” fretted Francis P. Sempa for Real Clear Defense this week. It is a criticism being echoed elsewhere.
“Once, America was strong and on the move,” complained David Shribman for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette this week.
“Today we lack self-confidence and purpose,” he wrote. “The country doesn’t seem to be moving, except in a very perilous direction. We doubt our strength and resolution.”
Can Biden’s State of the Union address help reassure a nervous — and broke — nation?
(contributing writer, Brooke Bell)