Sony Open 2022 — DraftKings Picks & Pivots
PGA DFS hits Waialae Country Club for another Fun Week in Hawaii
10K+ Range
The $10,000 price range and up on DraftKings took a hit when Bryson DeChambeau withdrew from the event. Nonetheless, there’s five pretty strong options to choose from if you’re looking for a stud golfer to anchor your lineup at Sony.

The Play — Cameron Smith ($11,200): As the week’s gone on, Cameron Smith to me has looked more and more like the “don’t overthink it” play at the top of the DraftKings pricing. It truly can’t be overstated how impressive Smith’s performance was last week at Kapalua, going wire-to-wire against an incredibly strong field, holding off world #1 Jon Rahm for two consecutive days, and breaking the PGA Tour scoring record for an event.
Cam spoke afterwards about how much he was looking forward to playing the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club this week, returning to a course he loves and has succeeded at in his career.
Smith projects as a moderately popular play on DK, but I’m willing to bet that when we turn the cards over Cam is less owned than he should be (similar to Rahm last week). I think it’s possible Cam Smith carries even half the ownership of Webb Simpson ($10,700), who is no doubt a great play but a safe one that people will flock to in droves.
Cam Smith’s 8/1 outright betting number to win is way too, so I’ll likely opt to just use him in DK lineups instead this week. He’s certainly an expensive way to start a lineup, but I just feel confident in what I’m likely to get out of the highest-priced golfer this week.
The Pivot — Hideki Matsuyama($10,600): Hideki is simply the game theory option at the top end of DK pricing. He’s surrounded by golfers who typically dominate at this venue and are much safer, higher floor options. In contrast, Hideki’s had only modest success at Waialae CC in his career — though Top-20 finishes in his last two appearances.
Matsuyama’s ball-striking appeared in good form last week at the Tournament of Champions, on route to a solid T-13 finish. He’s almost certainly going to be firing a lot of shots within 10-feet of these flags this week, but will he make enough putts?
The stats say probably not. But if you take the gamble on Hideki in your DK lineups and the flat stick DOES cooperate this week, you should get paid off handsomely.
9K+ Range

The $9,000 and up price range is tough this week.
You have last year’s Sony Open champion Kevin Na ($9,900), who showed good form at Kapalua last week. Then there’s Abe Ancer ($9,700) and Corey Conners ($9,600)whose games fit the course perfectly. Harris English’s ($9,300) game also fits the course perfectly, but comes in with some questionable form. And rounding out this range is Talor Gooch ($9,100) who just continues his upward trajectory, though hasn’t play particularly well at Waialae so far in his young career.
The Play — Corey Conners($9,600): I’ve spent plenty of oxygen on Corey Conners this week already — he was my first click on an outright bet — and I’m ready to make him a staple of my DK lineups.
A course Conners has finished 12th (2020) and 3rd (2019) at in his previous two trips, I expect another similar finish here at Sony in 2022. He’s an absolutely elite ball striker, coming to one of the few courses where he has consistently matched up his stellar ball striking with strong putting numbers. It just feels like the stars are aligning for a great week, and I don’t want to galaxy brain myself out of it.
Of course Conners projects as one of the chalkiest, highest-owned golfers on DraftKings this week…But this is chalk I’m willing to eat while finding lower-owned contrarian plays elsewhere to put in my lineups.
The Pivot —Abe Ancer($9,700): Ancer is essentially the Hideki of the 9k+ range. He’ll likely be half as much owned on DK as Conners, but Ancer has essentially the same odds to win the tournament…
Ancer has surprisingly mediocre results at Waialae CC in four trips to the Sony Open — two made cuts with T29 and T38 finishes — but has shown the ability to play well and contend at similar events like RBC Heritage and Mayakoba.
Abe’s not quite the elite ball striker Corey Conners is, but he makes up for it by being a better putter and overall short game player — two things that will be key this week. Ancer will for sure be a part of my DK portfolio this week.
8K+ Range
Russell Henley ($8,500) & Seamus Power ($8,100) are the statistical darlings of the 8k+ who project to get the most ownership in this range. Both guys have been tremendous approach players over the past year — just so consistent with their wedges — who also can get very hot putting and scoring.
Henley & Power both popped up in the top seven of my stat model this week, and I’ll almost surely play both in my DK lineups a little bit…but for now I turn my two attention to a couple of different names I like even more for GPPs this week.

The Play — Kevin Kisner($8,900): Kisner has always been the most vocal about feeling like his best chances to win events are at a specific handful of courses on the PGA Tour — the Sony Open and Waialae CC are one of those and I don’t want to miss out.
Besides his win at Wyndham late in the summer, Kisner was not very good in 2021…which is why he’s probably not going to pop up on stat models in the same way as Power and Henley.
That said, Kis put up an impressive T8 finish at Kapalua last week — a course that couldn’t be any less of a fit for the shorter hitter. His short game was electric, gaining over 5 strokes on the field putting, and his approach play was also towards the top of the field.
I feel strongly that Kevin Kisner can keep the good play going this week at an event he’s faired well at in the past and which suits his golf game better. Additionally, as a noted Georgia Bulldog fan I like the idea of Kis just being in a completely euphoric state-of-mind entering the week.
The Pivot — Jason Kokrak($8,600): Kokrak is the classic golfer who burned you last week, finishing dead last at the Tournament of Champions, and who I think people will struggle to click on in this range.
I’m willing to touch the stove again though.
When Kokrak won the Houston Open in the fall, he said afterwards that he nearly withdrew early in the week because of how awful his swing felt. It took one session of sending clips of his swing to his coach to get things back in a good place.
All that to say, I think Kokrak’s at a point with his game where he just knows how to quickly tweak one or two things and get back to winning form.
He’s a noted big hitter on tour, but Kokrak won last year at Charles Schwab where he was forced to club down, hit fairways, and leave himself wedges into most holes. I think that formula can work this week at Waialae. Additionally, Kokrak’s never missed the cut in his six trips to the Sony Open.
7K+ Range

Sifting through the 7K range is going to be key, but tricky this week. It seems like a lot of people will land on someone who played ok at Kapalua last week in Joel Dahmen ($7,600), who sets up well enough here.
But there’s a ton of golfers in this range who also set up well at Waialae, though will be significantly less owned because they didn’t play a week ago and therefore are harder to gauge in terms of form coming in.
I wish I had the time and space to name more than two golfers I like here, because there’s a wide range of strong options, from several PGA vets with good course history to a few rookies with strong pedigrees.
The Play — Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,800): The 27 year old South African has quietly stayed just inside the top-50 ranked golfers in the world over the past year. While it doesn’t really feel like Bezuidenhout has contended deep into any recent PGA events, he’s been a strong player worldwide. Just looking quickly at his fall season, Bez finished 6th at the South Africa Open Championship, 5th at the BMW Championship on the DP World Tour, 3rd at the Korn Ferry Championship, as well as Tied-15th at a very similar course at Mayakoba in November.
Bezuidenhout goes through stretches where he can be a very good ball striker, especially on approach shots. He’s also typically a great putter, who can get especially hot on Bermuda Greens, as we’ll see this week.
Bez has never played the Sony Open, which I think can be good and bad for his chances this week. On one hand there’s a number of other golfers in this field with reliably strong course history; on the other, you can take the gamble on Bezuidenhout’s skillset matching up well and Waialae being a place he smashes at.
The Pivot — Ryan Palmer($7,800): Palmer had a wildly inconsistent 2021 campaign, after something of a revitalized year in 2020 that got him to the Tour Championship as a top-30 earner.
He finished his fall swing with decent finishes at Mayakoba (T27) and Houston (T26), which gives me hope that Palmer is turning the ship around coming into 2022.
Palmer starts his year at Sony, a place where he’s finished in the top-20 four times in his last seven trips dating back to 2014. It’s an event where for the most part he’s struck it very well and seen some strong weeks on the greens at Waialae. You hope he can get into contention this week if you have Palmer in your DK lineups…but even a fringe top-20 performance with how well he scores for fantasy could be enough.
At potentially <5% ownership, I’m willing to take some shots on Ryan Palmer.
6K+ Range
I’m staying away from golfers priced below $7,000 as much as I can this week.
Of course if I’m playing Cam Smith at the top it’s likely I need to click SOMEONE down here as a salary relief play, perhaps just someone I think can make the cut and play four rounds…
There’s no one the stats logically back up as a strong play this week. That said, I’m willing to play Hudson Swafford ($6,800), who will be a popular option in this range. Swafford has three top-10 finishes at Sony in his career and has played decent enough going back to the end of last season.
Mark Hubbard ($6,600) is someone who is likely to pop up in statistical models this week (he was #20 in mine). He finished T34 at Sony last season, and just feels like someone who can at least make the cut.

Lastly I’ll give mention to the golfer who ranked #15 in my model this week: Hank Lebioda ($6,800). At his best, Lebioda can be very good with his irons and approach play, as well as scorching hot with his putter…which is what happened at one point last summer when Hank reeled off three straight T8 or better finishes. He finished T15 at the Houston Open in mid-November, but missed the cut at RSM while playing just ok for two rounds. I think there are much worse dart throw type plays below $7,000.
Anyway, thanks for reading and happy GOLF.