Singapore General Elections GE2020

Some Hiccups, and a Decisive Mandate for The Future

The ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) won 61.24% of the popular vote in GE2020 held on 10 July. This translated to 83 of the 93 Parliamentary seats, with the remaining 10 going to the Workers’ Party (WP).

191 candidates from 11 political parties and I Independent contested in Singapore’s “Crisis” General Elections. Singapore has more than 20 registered political parties.

Analysts quickly conveniently highlighted an 8.7% swing from the PAP’s 69.9% share in GE2015. This comparison is fortunately wrong since the September GE2015 was held then against the backdrop where Singaporeans were still in grief mourning the demise of its long-time leader Lee Kuan Yew only in March 2015.

At the Press Conference at the end of votes counting, Prime Minister (PM) Lee Hsien Loong pointed out correctly that the results reflected “broad-based support for the PAP” (because) “Singaporeans understand what is at stake and why we must come together to uphold our national interests.” PM Lee vowed “to use this mandate responsibly to deal with COVID-19 and the economic downturn to take us through the crisis safely and beyond”. He nonetheless acknowledged that the popular vote was not higher than he had hoped for.

Indeed, in this 4th election as Prime Minister, his electorate in the Ang Mo Kio Group of 5 Constituencies or GRC, comprising the largest community of 190,000+ voters, gave him and his PAP Team a resounding 71.91% of the votes cast, when compared with the PAP’s overall 61.24%. This is clearly an exceptional personal mandate which also affirmed his leadership during this covid19 pandemic crisis period.

In another GRC, his former (2011–2019) Deputy PM Tharman Shanmugaratnam and his 5-member PAP Team also received an astounding 74.62% of the vote against a new political party. There was no groundswell against the PAP. The overall 61.24% for the PAP was therefore due more likely to a stronger showing of the opposition Workers’ Party who managed to retain their Aljunied GRC with an increased majority, despite a pending law suit regarding alleged mismanagement of their Town Council, and who also won the new Sengkang GRC whose PAP Team was helmed by the Labour Union Chief Ng Chee Meng who led the National Trades union Congress (NTUC).

POSSIBLE EXPLANATION FOR THE LOSS OF PAP VOTES

It is neither obvious nor straightforward to explain the loss of PAP votes in the GE2020 elections. This is only the 2nd time that all Parliamentary seats were contested. A total of 2,535,565 votes were cast, increasing by 2% from 2015 to 95.63% of the registered voters, the largest voters turnout since 1997.

The covid19 pandemic has been well-managed by the PAP Government with a “contain, isolate, mitigate” strategy which mobilized healthcare, public health, manpower and armed forces resources to eventually tame the raging scourge of the virus. The economy is opening up and children have gone back to school. Local infections have been reduced to less than 10 daily and infected foreign workers have dropped to a couple of hundreds compared with thousands just 2+ months ago.

Together with a total stimulus package amounting to S$92.5 billion, and the recent care and support packages still fresh in Singaporeans’ minds, it was baffling that the electorate did not stand stronger with the PAP. Yet, many PAP candidates, old and new, actually performed well by securing around 60+% of the votes and some even into the high 60’s% and 70’s%. The PAP also captured 13 out of 14 Single Members Constituencies (SMC), except for the one long held by the Workers’ Party @ Hougang.

The East Coast GRC and the new Sengkang GRC both have much in common, and I believe also explained much of the dispersed underlying anti-PAP ground sentiments.

[1] EXECUTION MATTERS EVEN FOR GOOD POLICIES

Deputy PM Heng Swee Keat and his 5-Member Team secured just 53.41% of the votes. DPM Heng was the designated successor to PM Lee who intends to step aside in 2022. DPM Heng is the also the key architect of the solidarity, resilience and fortitude budgets which contained the wonderfully designed S$92.5 billion stimulus package, and the care and support packages.

The NTUC under the leadership of Ng Chee Meng was responsible to administer one of the major individual financial assistance package called Self-Employed Person Income Relief Scheme or SIRS. Nearly 30,000 applicants have been on the waiting list for the past 2+ months for their SIRS payments of several thousand dollars. Most have been emailed repeatedly to re-apply and re-submit documents without any attempts to explain the relevant lingering issues. His PAP Team comprising 2 other Officer Bearers lost 47.87% to the Workers’ Party Team of relative unknowns who polled 52.13%.

Execution matters, especially even for the best policies. Similarly, hundreds and possibly thousands of small businesses are also waiting for payments under a payroll support scheme called Job Support Scheme or JSS, which is administered by the Inland Revenue Department reporting directly to DPM Heng.

The Dissatisfaction Multiplier cannot be underestimated. 30,000 disaffected persons can infect another 2–3 immediate family members, relatives, friends and who in turn generate another 4–8 more empathisers and sympathisers. If we put a value of 10 as the Multiplier, it means nearly 300,000 went to the Polls who are “unfriendly” to the NTUC (Ng Chee Meng) and IRAS (DPM Heng), and they thus account for the respective poll results.

DPM Heng and Ng Chee Meng may very well be unaware of the extremely painful personal financial conditions caused directly by the JSS and SIRS delays. It remains highly probable that NTUC Chief Ng Chee Meng’s Sengkang GRC PAP Team paid dearly electorally for the perceived lack of empathy, customer responsiveness and inefficiency with regard the SIRS rollout. DPM Heng likely escaped the same fate by a slim margin.

[2] FRUSTRATIONS AND ANGER WHILE WAITING TO VOTE

Some polling stations experience long, slow-moving queues and unhelpful polling assistants. Gloves were initially blamed unconvincingly for the slow process. There was little adaptation to the realities of more elderly and older people who mostly have mobility and movement challenges. Personal identification, matching NRIC identity card to polling card, could have been done during queueing but many Assistant Returning Officers (AROs) did not want to venture outside the comfort of their polling hall to facilitate a faster clearance and checking process.

Voters queue for hours, with many on wheelchairs and others finding prolonged standing painful. Since candidates were not supposed to approach and assist voters in the queue to prevent undue influence, anger and frustrations grew by the moment; and these were further aggravated by the extension of polling by a further 2 hours. It is highly likely that many angry and frustrated voters decided then and there to cast their votes against the PAP as proxy of the Government.

Efficiency can be achieved through practice, practice and rehearsals. Were possible scenarios actually discussed and preempted, including running out of plastic gloves? Since it is known how many voters would be expected, how could the logistics fail to assure and ensure availability of adequate gloves? It is unbelievable and baffling. Voters have a natural high expectation of government efficiency. The old election polling playbook simply cannot be used during this unusual “crisis” elections process.

Many PAP votes must have been lost through voter frustrations and anger. Unless a new playbook is developed and the election officers and helpers properly trained, residents will always remember their terrible GE2020 experience.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

Overall, GE2020 provides Singapore reasons to celebrate as a maturing and strong democracy, with the opposition Workers’ Party becoming a more present and vocal opposition with 10 seats in Parliament. The PAP also did very well, with PM Lee securing a personal best of 72% mandate to lead, even as the PAP overall vote is at 61%.

The PAP votes would have been higher if not for the last-minute hiccups and long queue at some polling centres. The long 30,000 waitlist for more than 2+ months on the SIRS financial support scheme, plus thousands other small businesses waiting also for more than 2 months for the JSS payouts, lost the NTUC Chief (and his PAP Team) the new Seng Kang GRC. This is the first time an NTUC Chief has lost an election.

All said, the GE2020 outcome was really good for Singapore. The call for transparency, accountability and more opposition voices, mostly from the younger generation, did not resonate with the voters who overwhelmingly trusted the PAP to form the government. More than 50% of the voters in GE2020 were born after 1965 when Singapore achieved Independence.

Other than the Workers’ Party, all other Opposition Parties’ leaders like Tan Cheng Bock, Chee Soon Juan, Lim Tean and Jeyaratnam did not win enough votes to enter Parliament. Chee SJ continues to lose to a minority (Indian) candidate in Bukit Batok Constituency for the 2nd time, showing again that race no longer matters even in a traditionally Chinese community as long as the MP works and listens to the ground like all PAP MPs. We should all be happy with the GE2020 results. A truly good day for Singapore’s future.