Summary

The "Sheldon Plan for the Future" discusses the potential for societal decline amidst technological advancements, drawing parallels with Isaac Asimov's "Foundation" series and emphasizing the importance of recognizing and addressing signs of decay to ensure humanity's growth and survival.

Abstract

The article reflects on the duality of progress and decline, using Isaac Asimov's "Foundation" series as a lens to examine contemporary society. It suggests that despite apparent technological and economic advancements, there are underlying indicators of societal decay. These include a nostalgic longing for the past, a shift from transformative innovation to incremental improvements, a euphoric distraction from the growth process, a focus on details at the expense of the bigger picture, and a preoccupation with short-term gains. The piece advocates for heightened awareness, sustained curiosity, avoidance of idolization, leveraging diversity, and taking action to prevent societal degradation and secure a thriving future for humanity.

Opinions

The author believes that recalling the past as 'good old days' is a sign of societal decadence, indicating a disconnection from present innovation and future prospects.
Cumulative innovation, where society focuses on refining existing technologies rather than creating new ones, is seen as a path to stagnation and decline.
A euphoric attitude towards growth can lead to a neglect of the processes that drive true progress, potentially resulting in societal deterioration.
An overemphasis on specific technological advancements or financial successes can cause a loss of perspective on the overall trajectory of human growth.
Short-term thinking in innovation and personal ambition is considered detrimental to the long-term well-being of humanity.
The author emphasizes the importance of being present and acknowledging the current state of affairs to prevent societal decay.
Curiosity and a willingness to question are presented as essential traits for individuals seeking to contribute to society's growth and prevent decline.
Idolizing past leaders, cultures, or ancestors is viewed as an obstacle to progress and innovation.
The article underscores the necessity of embracing diversity to harness a wide range of skills and perspectives in the fight against societal degeneration.
It is argued that taking concrete actions, rather than merely discussing issues, is crucial for individuals to impact society positively and halt decay.

Sheldon Plan for the Future: innovation or degradation?

Humanity is witnessing major innovations in fields of rocket science, AI, neural networks, and many more. Likewise, the average normalized income is much higher in the 21st century than in the previous periods. Growth of technology is creating more and more jobs for people of every background. Moreover, people start gaining their rights (some faster, others more slowly) with the increasing spread of democratic systems around the world.

Nothing can go wrong, right?

Yes, there are some small crises, but humanity gets stronger with every crisis.

Well, not so quick. Let’s explore the answer through one of the most famous fiction book series: Foundation series by Isaac Asimov.

Everything started in Trantor — flourishing world with cutting edge technology and science. Most people were satisfied with the level of growth and innovation of Trantor and the world. However, when Hari Sheldon presented his calculations about the possibility of forecasting the future, many things changed. It became clear that some people were suspecting degradation of the Empire. How though? When there is no actual problem, how can someone predict the decay of humanity and the universe? I am not going very deep into the events of the books (though I would recommend reading it), but let me emphasize one thing: Hari Sheldon created a plan that would enable to stop decadence and crises that would be coming ahead. So, I became interested in whether the decline of our world can be forecasted using some metrics or signals? How can you notice degradation during euphoric innovation brought by technological advances?

Even though there is no direct causal relation, some signals can help to detect the decay of humanity during the period full of advances and innovation. Let’s see how it is possible to understand warning signals!

1. Humanity clings to ‘Good old days’:

‘Good old days’ have been an important signal of decadence for centuries: people have been recalling their past for a long time, thus, forgetting their current life. It is essential to grasp that innovation is happening in the current moment, and the results of innovation can be noticed in the future. Therefore, be wary when more and more people start considering their past to be better than their current life.

2. Cumulative innovation:

Non-continuous innovation is essential for the growth and future of humanity. Social media, AI, AR/VR were non-continuous disruptions that played essential roles in the growth of humanity. However, when innovation becomes cumulative, it changes from innovation to improvement. Improvement, differently from innovation, leads to degradation, as the speed of growth flattens. One may ask: what slow improvement has to do with decay? The answer is that the flattened innovation curve leads to decreasing effectiveness of human activities — thus, instigating degradation of humanity.

3. Euphoria about growth and possibilities leading to lack of attention on the process:

Accelerating development of AI, neural networks, electric vehicles makes people euphoric about future opportunities. In the euphoric state, people lose their focus on the development process. This in return leads to deterioration of the process of growth.

4. Focus on details — losing sight of the global view:

News about Tesla, Amazon, Google, and other development happening around the world seems to attract a lot of attention nowadays. Many factors are getting the attention of humanity, while the general trend of growth is ignored. People consider technology, financial tools, and other developments to be the signs of growth: however, all of those factors are part of general human growth (not the most important part).

5. Focus on short-term growth:

Innovation is a result of long-term thinking. Therefore, excessively focusing on short-term goals and life ambitions is a clear sign of deterioration of the future of humanity.

How can human beings stop the decadence of humanity?

1. Become aware of the moment:

To be able to stop the deterioration of the human future and growth, one needs to know that there is degeneration. This realization starts with the awareness of the moment. Don’t get me wrong: I am not calling all humanity to start meditating to gain awareness (though that would be useful). This awareness does not require meditation or any ‘spiritual’ activity: people should just be there and accept the truth.

2. Do not be content — curiosity:

How does one person become ignorant of some matter? My answer would be lack of curiosity and satisfaction with things at hand. If one wants to avert the deterioration, he/she should be always questioning the truth, the process, the method. Only through questioning you can develop and innovate!

3. Do not idolize:

This is an issue of many degrading countries of nowadays: people idolize their past leaders, their culture, their ancestors. Pay attention to how all the sources of idolization are things of the past. To grow and stop retrogression one needs to be aware of the past but live in the current moment for the better future!

4. Use the power of diversity:

Yes, I know that you have heard about the power of diversity many times before. However, it is not just words: one person can not know and stop the decay of humanity by himself. Humanity requires skills of all types of people if it is to stop future degeneration!

5. Act-do not just talk:

We all have seen people that talk about politics, tech innovation, and change to society. Nevertheless, most of those people do not act to support their point. If you want to have an impact on the future of humanity, you can not just talk about theories. Every day take a time to be aware of yourself, what you need to do, and act based on your decisions!

Grand Final:

What I have talked about seems like a horror movie about the destruction of the future of humanity. No, it is not. It is a possible path that humanity may take if every one of us stays ignorant of our actions. As members of human society, each of us is responsible for the future of humanity. So, take your time and think about what you can do for your fellow human beings. Let’s build the Sheldon Plan together and stronger!