SCOTUS Just Prevented a Second Trump Term

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1914

Abstract

or Trump because of the bigger prize, but that prize is already won, why would you vote for him again? What would be the payoff? Granted, the conservative angle might argue for “finishing the wall” or something like that, but compared to the profound animating energy of the abortion debate on evangelicals, the wall isn’t even close. Most evangelicals have nowhere near the animus toward immigration that they have on abortion. For those folks, they just don’t carry the same moral weight.</p><p id="0642">This change in the situation is likely to alter the balance in people’s minds as they consider their votes in the upcoming elections. I doubt that these changes will get evangelicals to turn for Joe Biden, but where it will play a role is in the primary. Voters who no longer need the radical, chaotic Trump to get their way no longer need Trump. They already got their way, so they are free to vote for someone more palatable, and I predict that they will — in the primaries. They will vote for other Republicans — could be other jerks like DeSantis, or you might see the comeback of RINOs (so-called Republicans In Name Only), or what most of us think of as traditional Republicans — you know, those willing to hide their racism, sexism, and addiction to power to help them get elected.</p><p id="2089">The bullies who love Trump will not change. They are likely with him all the way. The number of people who made this trade with the devil to get their Supreme Court win may be small or it may be large — I don’t know. But I suspect it is substantial enough to swing the pendulum away from Trump — especially after the January 6th Committee hearings. Recent polls before the overturning of Roe have shown that DeSantis and others are polling far better than they were before them. Add this decision, and the Supreme Court may well make a Trump re-election impossible. We can only hope.</p><p id="679c">*</

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The evangelical trade-off is dead

Ask a lot of Trump voters why they voted for him and they will tell you he was doing what they wanted — chaotically passing the conservative agenda, especially at the Supreme Court. Many said: He will get the right justices on the court. And from their viewpoint, he did.

Subsequently, and recently, the court did its thing. It overturned Roe v. Wade, struck down gun laws restricting public carry, and has undertaken several other conservative causes. Now, they say they want to go after gay marriage and contraception as well. Conservative reactionaries will be delighted.

However, if you get them to be even more honest with you, many Trump voters will tell you something else: they don’t like the man. This isn’t all Trump voters, but it is many of them. Many, especially in the evangelical world, were willing to hold their nose on Trump to achieve what they perceive as a bigger victory — controlling the reproductive decisions of women, expanding gun rights, and rooting out other immoralities like gay marriage. Many such voters are quite clear about this.

Wins change everything

With those wins in hand, however, the mental gymnastics used to overcome the calling of their better angels must fall apart. If you were willing to hold your nose and vote for Trump because of the bigger prize, but that prize is already won, why would you vote for him again? What would be the payoff? Granted, the conservative angle might argue for “finishing the wall” or something like that, but compared to the profound animating energy of the abortion debate on evangelicals, the wall isn’t even close. Most evangelicals have nowhere near the animus toward immigration that they have on abortion. For those folks, they just don’t carry the same moral weight.

This change in the situation is likely to alter the balance in people’s minds as they consider their votes in the upcoming elections. I doubt that these changes will get evangelicals to turn for Joe Biden, but where it will play a role is in the primary. Voters who no longer need the radical, chaotic Trump to get their way no longer need Trump. They already got their way, so they are free to vote for someone more palatable, and I predict that they will — in the primaries. They will vote for other Republicans — could be other jerks like DeSantis, or you might see the comeback of RINOs (so-called Republicans In Name Only), or what most of us think of as traditional Republicans — you know, those willing to hide their racism, sexism, and addiction to power to help them get elected.

The bullies who love Trump will not change. They are likely with him all the way. The number of people who made this trade with the devil to get their Supreme Court win may be small or it may be large — I don’t know. But I suspect it is substantial enough to swing the pendulum away from Trump — especially after the January 6th Committee hearings. Recent polls before the overturning of Roe have shown that DeSantis and others are polling far better than they were before them. Add this decision, and the Supreme Court may well make a Trump re-election impossible. We can only hope.

Gadwall Jackson

Writing the Unspeakable Truth