“I think this is indeed a tool for realizing national interests without the direct participation of the state. You are right.” Putin in response to a question by Alexander Mitrofanov
Wagner’s colonial war in Africa involves France, the US, Germany, and other powers
Russia’s presence in Africa is brutal neo-colonialism
Russia’s Wagner has several strongholds in Africa. Russia has launched a successful campaign of misinformation across the African continent. French flags were burned in several African countries. Russian flags are hoisted in their stead. Africa holds one-third of the world’s wealth in minerals. These are essential to achieving our climate goals.
Russia has influence in a confederation of African states from Guinea to Eritrea
Russia is most active south of the Sahara in the Sahel zone. The Sahel ranges from Senegal to Eritrea. The entire region is plagued by political instability, economic crisis, Jihadism, and separatism. Wagner is extracting and withholding resources from Russia’s geo-political rivals.
Politics is not the pursuit of perfection but the art of the second-best Caspian report
The French influence in Mali is waning. France and some NATO allies had sent around 6000 troops into the Sahel zone in 2014. Operation “Barkhane” was launched to expel the Turak rebels and other jihadist groups in the region.
This operation was not successful. Wagner played a big role in the failure of the mission
France has recently re-deployed its forces to Niger. The uranium mines of Niger are very important for the French. Macron can’t afford to leave the region to its own devices. Further clashes with Russia in Africa are only a matter of time.
Mercenaries are useful where the conventional national military is weak or not up to the task
Wagner is useful because the Russian military is not up for the job. Factionalism is another strong incentive to use PMCs. Even Gazprom has its own PMC. Sergei Shoigu has his own PMC which is called Archer.
The Wagner culture combines elements of Russian prison culture with elements of the Stalinist era
This culture of fear is expressed by using executions and other extreme forms of violence to achieve a base level of force discipline. Wagner sent a blood-stained sledgehammer to the EU parliament last year.
Wagner recruit’s eighty percent of its personnel from prisons. Many of them are from Russia’s fascist far right. These so-called Z-Patriots represent roughly 5 to 15 percent of the population.
1) Paramilitary
These tasks include training, equipping, and supporting the host nation.
2) Combat
The specialists of the PMC provide combat support such as snipers. They might also help to take out air targets among other tasks.
3) Intelligence
The PMC can gather human intelligence for the Russian secret service, or they do reconnaissance work. PMCs engage in political warfare and carry out sabotage missions. Russia’s eco-terrorist attacks included blowing up dams or the NS1 pipeline.
Protective services
PMCs also provide protective details for senior local government officials. PMCs are securing energy infrastructure like mines and oil wells. Then, they oversee the extraction.
4) Information warfare (IW)
PMC associated media campaigns are used to disseminate pro-Russian messages and narratives to key online audiences. Wagner build patriotic youth camps which brainwash Russian children with hateful anti Western propaganda.
The first bigger deployment of Wagner was in Syria in 2015. Wagner sent in 1000 to 3000 personnel to provide site security
Wagner oversaw the oil production in these territories, and they took a cut of the profits. Wagner has enterprises in Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic.
In Chad and Sudan, PMC Wagner is working with local insurgents and rebel forces
In Libya, Wagner backs the rebels against the internationally recognized government. The Wagnerites curb oil exports from Libya to Europe. Wagner has committed horrible atrocities in Sudan.
Wagner has a base for informational warfare in the Ivory coast. In Niger Wagner tries to secure uranium deposits
Macron had promised an equal footing between France and its former colonies. In Mali, this promise wasn’t upheld. The results were thousands of deaths and three military coups. Russia has sensed this weakness and took advantage of it.
Since 2017, the anti-French sentiment was growing. Russia lacks the colonial stigma of France. Russia presents itself as an alternative to France.
This new type of colonialism is using banks instead of tanks. Wagner is a profit-based company. They present themselves as bona fide actors. This doesn’t hold any water.
Russia has roughly 1400 contractors in Mali. The Wagner terrorists have aircraft, aerial radars, lawyers, and geologists. These men secure resource extraction rights in Mali and elsewhere. In Burkina Faso, Ibrahim Traoré came to power during a military coup in 2022. From 1945 to 2022, a coup d’état had a 50 percent success rate.
A coup d’état is defined as an attempt to forcefully overthrow the incumbent executive by a faction or part of a country’s elite. This brings a significant change of leadership and policies.
The dictator Ibrahim Traoré joined forces with Wagner in Burkina Faso in 2022
Ibrahim then expelled French diplomats from the country. Wagner is aiding the rebels in Chad by backing Mahamad Mahdi Ali. He is the leader of the rebel group “Change and Concord in Chad” (FACT). The former leader of Chad Idriss Deby Itno was a close ally of France.
Deby was killed by the rebels of FACT in April of 2022. The Deby regime supported the French in the region
Deby’s death is troublesome. The Chad is in a central location. Any conflict that breaks out in this area is almost certainly going to spill over into other regions.
Sudan’s leader, Mohammed Hamdan Daglo, is also collaborating with Russia. Wagner is part of an ongoing civil war. Sudan has huge gold reserves, and Russia extracts this gold.
Faustin-Archange Touadéra the president of the Central African Republic, is collaborating with Wagner in South West Africa
The CAR suffers from abysmal poverty. There has been a civil war going on since 2012. Wagner and Shoigu’s Archer PMC are active there. The goal is to exploit the country’s gold and mineral deposits. Wagner uses the locals as slave laborers.
Russia is running a modern version of a colonial empire in Africa
Russia is controlling several strategic sites in Chad, Sudan, and the West African republic. Russia tries to establish a trade route to Dubai. This route would grant Russia exclusive access to Sahel resource. Russia may have overplayed their hand once more. The West is waking up to the problem.
Russia’s overconfidence will end badly. They will have no one to blame but themselves
During the 4 hour Battle of Kasham around 40 American troops together with various air, and ground assets faced down 500 Russian and Syrian troops. The clash resulted in zero US casualties. In between 80 and 100 Wagnerites were killed. Over 200 were wounded.
Russia got involved in the Libyan Civil War in 2015. Russia followed a linchpin strategy here. Their success was limited due to a Turkish intervention.
The Sultan was losing patience with Russia. In north Libya, the Turkish backed government in Tripoli was undermined by Russia and its 2000 mercenaries, which are spread across the country. The main goal of Russia was to stifle Libya’s oil exports to Europe.
In Ivory Coast, Russia has set up a hub for informational warfare, which propagates Russian influence across the continent. The goal of the campaign is to spread lies and incite violence against the French.
Wagner’s influence is spreading into Kongo
The Kongo is the mother of all proxy conflicts. Prigozhin had the organizer role at Russia’s Africa summit. With or without Prigozhin, his network will continue to cause havoc and destruction across the African continent.
The West is slowly waking up to the problem. After a terrible blowback in Mali, Western forces are regrouping in Niger
These French troops are bolstered by German and American personnel. They push back against Russian troops in Niger. The French have no other option. The Uranium from Niger powers 3 out of 4 French lightbulbs. France will do whatever it takes to keep the lights on.
Wagner is ill suited to deal with determined resistance
In Mozambique, the Russian terrorists faced off against Jihadists. The government hired Wagner in 2019 to deal with the jihadists in exchange for oil and gas concessions. Russian incompetence, poor planning, and miscommunication, the Wagnerites were captured. In 2020, Mozambique had hired a South African PMC to finish the job.
There is a lesson we can take away here. When Europe engages in Africa to secure rare earths and minerals, then Wagner must be dealt with
Nigeria provides 13 percent of Europe’s energy needs. Nigeria cooperates with Italy and France. The LNG facilities there are running at 60 percent capacity. These clashes with Wagner in Niger, Mozambique, and Syria show that Wagner struggles to prevail against organized, well equipped, and motivated opponents.
Algeria revived a pipeline project in cooperation with the DR Kongo
The 4100-kilometer-Trans Saharan pipeline would bypass the Sahel zone. Morocco is also considering on and offshore projects to bring more gas to Europe. These geo-economic projects imply more commitment by the US and its allies in Africa. Wagner might attempt to undermine the pipelines in west and north Africa.
Wagner might then face the collective retribution of Algeria, Nigeria, Morocco, the EU, and China
China outtrades the UK, the US, and France in the French speaking part of Africa. French trade only accounts for five percent of their total trade. 25 years ago, this trade still accounted for almost one-third.
China’s investment in the Sahel zone will require military backing. The Chinese base in Djibouti is too far away. In the Sahel zone, Wagner plays a unique role which can’t be ignored any longer.
Summary and Conclusion
Wagner’s bases are often co-located with Russian critical infrastructure. These bases are in Mali, Burkina Faso, Algeria, Libya, Sudan, South Sudan, Central African Republic, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Zimbabwe, Chad, Madagascar, Eritrea, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Belarus, and in Ukraine.
The Neo-Nazi Dimitri Utkin and Evgeny Prigozhin are the serpent’s two heads
Oleg Erokhin is the head of the company Evro Poli, which is overseeing the oil extraction in Syria. Andrei Mandel is the head of M-Invest and M Finance. Andrei oversees Meroe Gold, which is extracting gold in Sudan, and he also holds diamond concessions in the Central African Republic.
“The EU and the US must seize Wagner assets. Wagner’s terrorist operation is funded by Putin’s state mafia. Take it all. We must stop pretending that Russia is a country with politics and geopolitics.” Kasparov
Russia’s information campaign of misinformation and gaslighting has caused major disruptions. Russia’s lies fuel anti French sentiments
Some African countries such as Chad or Mali erected statues for Wagner, which are depicting them protecting women and children. This is nonsense, of course. The opposite is the case.
Wagner is a barbaric mercenary force which carries out horrendous atrocities in Africa
Wagner is acting like a colonial power of a bygone age. Appeasing Russia is appeasing the strong. The West should designate Wagner a terrorist group and Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. Our principles are non-negotiable.
Russia is incompetent but this incompetence is global
Ukraine is fighting against a nuclear armed version of ISIS on steroids. Wagner is one of hydra’s many heads. The West must understand that we are fighting a colonial empire.
“A system is broken and corrupt when it is strictly profit driven and not driven to serve the best interests of its people.” Suzy Kassem
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Sources
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-59699350
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nigeria-send-more-lng-europe-by-next-winter-2022-09-07/
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