"Fanaticism consists of redoubling your effort when you have forgotten your aim." George Santayana
Russia’s missile terror against civilian targets shows that our fear of escalation escalated the war further
“In Kyiv and the Kyiv region, and in Kharkiv, to date, 92 people have been injured. Unfortunately, four people were killed,” Ukrainian President Zelenskyy
These attacks again show that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is driven by fanatical hate.
Putin vowed the strikes on Russia won’t go unpunished. The masterful liar in the Kremlin denies targeting civilians. The opposite is true. Terror and despair is the goal of this bombing campaign.
Russia complained that Ukraine fired back at Belgorod and Donetsk. Apparently, Ukraine hit the Donbas Palace Hotel 6 times. Parts of the Donbas elite gathered there with guests from Moscow.
There are many dead and injured Russian and Ukrainian civilians. Ukraine aims for military targets, Russia aims at civilians to spread fear terror
In the past couple of days Russia has fired hundreds of missiles and drones at (mostly) civilian targets. Russia also accidentally hit its own village in Voronezh.
You reap what you sow, Russia, you reap what you sow. Those who bring the sword will die by the sword.
Russia’s complaints about Ukraine’s counterstrikes are infuriating. Russia targets Ukrainian civilians deliberately. They have done so since the beginning of the war. The Ukrainians have warned Russia. Ukraine won’t just defend itself but it will hit back at them.
“Russia will answer for every life taken away,” Zelenskyy
The Russians started this war under the childish illusion that what goes around won’t come around
A “coalition of the willing” could stop this madness. War is a business between nations, the UN will not provide more than empty words. Alas! If only things were that easy. Western democracies are in crisis or semi crisis. We have been slow or even unable to react to global threats.
The West knows what would be the morally and ethically right thing to do. However, there is a lack of political will. A no-fly zone would likely put an end to Russia’s aggression very swiftly. The West lacks the moral courage to take this risk.
“The Nazis entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everyone else, and nobody was going to bomb them. At Rotterdam, London, Warsaw, and half a hundred other places, they put their rather naive theory into operation. They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind.” Sir Arthur Harris, aka “Bomber Harris”
Downing of 10/10 Kinzhal is huge. This was supposed to be Putin’s “Wunderwaffe.” The weapon that could not be taken down by any existing air defense system. As it seems, Ukraine takes them down with decades old Patriot systems.
Russia’s top of the line air defense gets wrecked by Storm Shadows. Its airbases are destroyed by ATACMS, its miracle missiles by Patriots, its armor by Javelins and its infantry by Bradley, and its warship get taken out by anti ship missiles.
Imagine what Ukraine could do with the latest equipment delivered in high volume. There would soon be no Russian army left to speak of
Apparently, Russia lied about Kinzhal’s performance. Its’ claimed top speed of Mach 5 is nowhere close to its’ actual top speed of Mach 3. Which is still really fast. However, it is also the speeds Patriot and NASAMS are specifically designed to hit them with ease.
Why does Putin constantly hit Ukraine’s civilians instead of military targets?
I can think of three reasons
One reason is Russian incompetence.
The second reason is firmly rooted in hatred and vengeful spite. Putin is throwing a toddler’s tantrum because he didn’t get that extra cookie.
The third is Russia’s plan to erase Ukraine’s cultural heritage and commit genocide. For example, in this strike Russia targeted a museum and a University. Both buildings are linked to Ukrainian nationalism and Ukraine’s century long fight for statehood and identity.
The most apparent reason aside from hatred is Russia’s command and control which is simply too slow. It takes too long for them to do battle damage assessments
If the Russians shoot at something and miss (because they were too slow and the target had moved) then it can sometimes take days before they even know they’ve missed. Let alone authorize a follow-up strike.
Sadly, Russia is accurate enough to “probably hit Kyiv if the missile is not shot down” and if the Russian missile force don’t fire missiles at something then someone might start asking “would these guys be more useful in a trench at the front?” Hence, their militarily pointless terror strikes.
Another reason might be that Russia continues to rely on outdated military maps from USSR times. A lot of old military bases and storage compounds in Ukraine were torn-down quite some time ago, and they were replaced with normal housing.
The West has thus far let Russia get away with these atrocities for the fear that Russia would collapse like a house of cards
We can’t continue to normalize these attacks. We must react to these Russian terror attacks with more than words. Words mean nothing to this liar in the Kremlin. Actions speak louder than words.
The Western strategy is based on two pillars in the following order
1) Contain the war in Ukraine
2) Restore Ukraine’s sovereignty/de-occupy Ukraine
The West lacks an overall strategic/ geo-political vision for a path to victory Ukraine. This failure to act can be attributed to a lack of political will, moral vigor, a lack of courage and a lack of leadership.
How much longer will the world continue to watch these unprovoked acts of wanton cruelty? Bertrand Russel
Our bureaucrats and populists base many of their decisions on polls, spin doctors and probabilities
Kariņš the foreign Minister of Latvia stated that a victory in Ukraine would prove to the Kremlin that its policy was correct, by making it possible to attack neighboring countries and benefit from it.
“That is why it is unacceptable. This is an attack not only on Ukraine and Europe. This is an attack on the order established after World War II, in which the rule of law, not force, plays a key role,” Kariņš
The West often acts in the way Russia wants to see us. Paralyzed by inertia
We are dealing with an incalculable, negatively creative and inventive evil in the Kremlin. This evil cannot be appeased. It can only be confronted and faced down by a show of strength. We surprised Russia when the war began. They expected no reaction at all. We must surprise them again.
Russia is a mafia state. Our Western politicians and officials don’t speak ghetto
The escalation won't stop until we make it stop. For that we need direct and clear language. Russia sent a missile into Poland to test our resolve. Next a missile will hit something in NATO countries directly.
“Putin feels weakness like an animal, because he is an animal. He senses blood, he senses his strength. And he will eat you for dinner with all your EU, NATO, freedom, and democracy.” — Zelensky interview with The Economist
Russia will cower before strength and might. It will thrive on defensive passivity and fear
If there is any ethical way to wage war. Then it is a swift campaign using massive force. The bull and the eagle cower behind Ukraine to bleed out the bear. The West is a giant. This giant COULD engage and win.
Yes, I know. Russia has nukes. That's why no one will send out an invasion force to capture Moscow
Russia’s nukes are only useful when they don't use them. Putin’s regime are criminals, not ideologues. The Russian cowards will not use nukes, because we have them too.
In its inner logic Russia sees the 4 oblasts which it illegally annexed as Russian territory
How high is the chance that a no fly zone over Ukraine which would have to include the shutdown of Russian air defense in Belgorod, Kursk, Kaliningrad and Bryansk is going to trigger a nuclear response?
The chance of nuclear escalation in that case is extremely low.
How high is the chance that this war continues for another 2 to 4 years without our interference?
That chance is pretty high.
How high is the chance that it will cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of people. Or that the war will cause starvation and death by disrupting Africa’s and Asia’s grain supplies?
That chance is very high.
How high is the chance that Russia’s genocide and its barbaric conduct in Ukraine to continue without a stronger response from the West?
The chance for that is 100 percent.
How can the West justify talking about sacrosanct principles and the crucial importance of the UN charter?
Our Words without actions are a bad joke. Russia has gotten away with a lot thus far without being stopped. When is enough, finally enough?
"Unbowed, unbent, unbroken." Game of Thrones, Martell Suite
The West must set aside its petty quarrels. It must instead make due on its promise to arm liberty more than tyranny. The arsenal of the free world was built to put down a shield in front of free people who are fighting tyrants.
“In unity, there is always victory.” Publius Syrius, Roman senator and statesman
War is won in the spirit world as much as it is won by the strength of arms
Dictators free themselves and enslave the people. To fulfil our promise to Ukraine, we must open the floodgates of this arsenal. Only decisive action will ensure that the Russian empire will never be victorious.
Remember when Kuwait was invaded and a coalition of 42 nations assembled a massive strike force in six months to kick the invaders out?
Yet, here we are, two years into the invasion of Ukraine, feeding them just enough crumbs to hold the line. It’s pathetic and frustrating. Probably the only chance to end the war this year would be to give Russia a six month ultimatum to withdraw from Ukraine akin to Operation Desert Shield.
In those 6 months, a build up air and naval forces as well as ground forces on the eastern flank should commence
Upon a Russian failure to withdraw, which would be the likely result. Western troops could then move into northern Ukraine to help Ukraine secure Northern border and to assist them with their logistics.
We could then also move NATO air defenses into Western Ukraine
Additionally, introduce a no-fly zone over the entirety of Ukraine including a total land and naval blockade of Kaliningrad
This could be accompanied by a total ban on all energy/commodity and metal imports from Russia to Western nations. We still feed the Russian war economy with billions of dollars.
However, this scenario is wishful thinking. Therefore, let’s at least allow Ukraine full access to long-range weapons. We must finally allow Ukraine to target Russia with our arsenal.
We talked a lot. My god, but we did so little. Many of our leaders are old, scared, and not willing to walk their talk. We could do a lot. Both in terms of hard and soft power tools and in terms of capabilities that we denied to Ukraine. Let’s start with the 300 km ATACMS and Taurus.
We could follow the suggestions of the Ukrainian foreign Dmytro Kuleba
Expedite the delivery of additional air defence systems and ammunition to Ukraine;
Provide Ukraine with combat drones of all types;
Provide Ukraine with long-range missiles with a range of over 300 km;
Approve the use of frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine;
Isolate Russian diplomats in relevant capitals and international organisations.
We claim that the UN charter is sacrosanct? Well, it doesn't look like it. What about the sovereignty of nations? We said we won’t negotiate over our principles? Well, then we must fill these words with meaning
Russia poses a threat to global food security and to the entire Western world. Russia poses a threat to NATO's eastern flank. Russia poses a threat to democracies around the globe.
It poses a threat to the rules based system. I hope our moral vigor will recover. We must engage Russia with more tenacity. Either NATO engages or we must draw down our strategic reserve. We have only one enemy in Europe. That enemy is Russia. Ukraine must receive enough modern weaponry so that they can finish the job
Time the devourer of everything is coming for the Russian empire. Putin will take his realm with him to the grave
The Bible observed that the four apocalyptic riders war, famine plague, and death are usually arriving together. When one shows up, the others soon follow thereafter. There is even a fifth rider. His name is misinformation. Without feeding this one, the other four cannot ride. Russia fed this one exceptionally well.
“Chaos demands to be recognized and experienced before letting itself be converted into a new order.” Hermann Hesse
Dale Carnegie said that the universe follows a law of habits. We are all bound to them. We can not escape the law of habits.
Good habits are hard to form and even harder to maintain. Bad habits are easily formed and easy to maintain. Bad habits practiced on a nationwide level can lead to war. War is a chaos agent. One that breaks up old habits and brings change. Russia will go bankrupt gradually, and then all of a sudden.
Summary and Conclusion
History doesn't repeat itself, but it echoes. 1917 is echoing through time
The Russian public may think the worst is behind them. That's wishful thinking. The worst in terms of economic and political upheaval is ahead of them. Russia’s war economy will impoverish tens of millions of middle class Russians. Churchill said: “those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”
Russia fails with remarkable consistency to work through its history
Russia has failed to reflect on it past, and to learn the right things from it. There is a generational memory (80 years) and a collective memory. Whatever we repress/don't remember as collective/nation, we are doomed to repeat.
The past teaches us that strategic bombing campaigns do the opposite of what Russia wants. These attacks against civilian targets will harden Ukraine’s resolve. These barbaric attacks will harden Western resolve to stop Russia.
‘The dream repeats itself since it forgets itself. That’s why it repeats itself.’ — Valerie Voze (Amsterdam)
Russia is the master of lies, rewriting their own past, repressing past traumas or reinterpreting or straightforwardly making up their own past as they see fit. These lies incur a debt to the truth. Someday, this debt must be repaid in full.
Dear reader, thanks for reading my story
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Take care and be well.
Russiae Imperium delendum est
Sources:
https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-air-forces-intercept-all-russian-hypersonic-missiles/