Russian Threats: Dmitry Medvedev
Over the last few weeks, I have heard a few things from the Federation. The first is that there was a leak of the Russian nuclear doctrine. It’s been a week. And to be honest, it was the same pattern of trying to scare us out of our wits.
This is some of what these documents contain, according to the Financial Times:
Criteria for a potential nuclear response range from an enemy incursion on Russian territory to more specific triggers, such as the destruction of 20 per cent of Russia’s strategic ballistic missile submarines.
“This is the first time that we have seen documents like this reported in the public domain,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. “They show that the operational threshold for using nuclear weapons is pretty low if the desired result can’t be achieved through conventional means.”
Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons, which can be delivered by land or sea-launched missiles or from aircraft, are designed for limited battlefield use in Europe and Asia, as opposed to the larger “strategic” weapons intended to target the US. Modern tactical warheads can still release significantly more energy than the weapons dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945.
The defensive plans expose deeply held suspicions of China among Moscow’s security elite even as Putin began forging an alliance with Beijing, which as early as 2001 included a nuclear no-first-strike agreement.
Some of these claims are pretty frankly old. Russia has had this use of nuclear weapons if the borders are breached from the Soviet period. So does the use of this level of destruction. One person who used to discuss these things often on Russian Telegram was Moscow Calling. His channel went quiet after August 2023, when the Russian state charged him for discrediting the army.
So, what is this leak about? And are these documents even real if we have seen discussions to this effect on Russian Telegram? First, Russia has retaken Avdiivka at an incredible cost in personnel. They intend to continue to advance until, at least, the coming “elections.”
Russia lost 12 fighters and bombers over the last ten days and an AN-50 AWACS plane. This is then second in less two months. This is the reporting via the Kyiv Independent:
Ukraine reported the downing of 13 Russian warplanes within the last two weeks, among the highest Russian Air Force losses since the early days of the full-scale invasion.
This list includes 10 Su-34 fighter bombers, two Su-35 fighter jets, and one more rare A-50 military spy plane. Another A-50 aircraft was downed a month prior. The last three Su-34s were reportedly destroyed in a single day on Feb. 29 over eastern Ukraine.
The rapid destruction of aircraft comes amid Russia’s attempts to advance on the battlefield after the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Avdiivka and three villages in Donetsk Oblast, in addition to Ukraine’s widely mentioned ammunition shortage.
And now Dmitry Medevev is once again telling us that the borders of Ukraine are not even what they currently hold. He is also hinting they will split it with Poland and leave a rump of a state, the Kyiv region. Here:
“Ukraine is, of course, Russia, and the reverse concept must disappear forever”: Medvedev gave a lecture on the borders of Russia Deputy Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev gave a lecture “Geographical and strategic boundaries” at the educational marathon of the Knowledge Society. He began his speech with a quote from Vladimir Putin: “Russia’s borders do not end anywhere.” What else did Medvedev say?
🔸 “The member countries of the European Union have chosen a completely different path for themselves — to become for the United States of America, if you want such a harsh term, but I will say it — dumb animals.”
🔸 “The territories on both banks of the Dnieper are an integral part of Russia’s strategic historical borders, and all attempts to forcibly change them, to cut them off to the quick, are doomed.”
🔸 “Everyone understands perfectly well that we will never give up our lands. Therefore, negotiations [on Ukraine] with some new people are possible, in my opinion, when they recognize the realities that have developed on the ground as a result of the actions of our valiant armed forces.”
🔸 “In Ukraine, the main wealth for us is of a completely different kind: the great value that we will not give up to anyone and for nothing is people who are close to us in spirit and, in fact, relatives.” Therefore, Russia’s task now is to remove the “anti-Russian intoxication” from these people and return them to “our perimeter”, making them independently realize that “only here, next to us, will they prosper and feel needed.”
🔸 “The EU ambassadors to Russia refused to meet with the Russian Foreign Minister. Allegedly on the advice of Brussels. This contradicts the very idea of the existence of diplomatic missions and the appointment of ambassadors. In fact, all these ambassadors should be expelled from Russia, and the level of diplomatic relations with the countries of the European Union should be lowered.”
🔸 “Russia does not dictate its political will to its good neighbors, does not tell them how to live, does not threaten them with sanctions.” There are also rumors of war growing in Europe. And at this point Russia is preparing its population for a war with Europe. It is time for Governments to be honest with their citizens. We are more than likely, heading to war.
This is what I mean by Russia preparing its population. This is not an unusual post on Russian telegram at this point. Plus they continue to threaten us:
The Russian Ministry of Defense spoke about a possible scenario of an attack on Russia.
▪️An air-ground or air-sea operation will begin with a quick global strike and simultaneously with several massive missile and air strikes, according to an article in the Military Thought magazine of the Ministry of Defense.
▪️According to military estimates, enemy aviation will be one of the first to enter battle as the most maneuverable and adaptive type of troops, “perhaps even before the deployment of the main group.”
▪️The authors of the article believe that the enemy will act aggressively and provocatively before the start of the active phase of the operation: conduct all types of reconnaissance, regular flights of aircraft and drones near the borders of the Russian Federation, including flights of strategic bombers.
▪️In this regard, it is necessary to develop new views on the organization of the combat use of aviation forces both in peacetime and in wartime, the article says. Its authors consider it necessary, among other things, to equip the Russian Aerospace Forces with new and modernized models of aircraft complexes and weapons systems.
Now, it is also related to the dramatic loss in aviation. Whatever the Ukrainians are using to shoot them down, we will know when we will know. But the Russian Air Force is now more skittish.
Which brings me to the Navy. The Russians lost another ship to a country with no navy. Here are the details:
The Main Intelligence Directorate confirmed the destruction of the ship “Sergei Kotov”
The department noted that the ship was attacked on the night of March 4–5 by Magura V5 drones in the territorial waters of Ukraine, near the Kerch Bay. As a result, the Sergei Kotov’s stern was damaged, as well as its right and left sides.
The cost of the ship is about $65 million.
Some details about the patrol ship Sergei Kotov.
Its crew consists of 80 people and the ship could be equipped with modular tactical strike container weapons, in particular, Caliber missiles and Kh-35U Uran anti-ship missiles.
“Sergey Kotov” was launched in January 2021. Now the katsaps are whining about the “unknown fate of the crew.”
Oh, and an essential piece of color that emerged overnight is that the Magura V drones are now independent of the Starlink system. We know Elon Musk has messed with the system. After the war, I expect countries like Taiwan to buy a lot of these systems. These are the basis for a military export economy, just as Israel built after a few wars.
The Sergey Kotov was not Soviet era junk, like some others that have gone to the bottom. It was a modern vessel and one of the Caliber missile launchers. There is more data. Because Russia usually starts with nuclear threats when things are not going well.
They took a town where Ukrainians were not able to defend due to a shortage of ammunition. But, according to the Kyiv Independent, things are already stalling:
Ukrainian forces have stalled Russia’s advances in some areas west of the recently captured Avdiivka, Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Tavria Group, reported on March 4.
Ukraine’s military has managed to stabilize the situation and slow down Russian advances near the villages of Novoselivka, Berdychi, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske west of Avdiivka, Lykhovii said on national television.
Russia controls parts of Berdychi and Tonenke, but “the Defense Forces are doing their job, inflicting significant losses on the enemy,” added Lykhovii.
The presidential election spans from the 15th to the 17th of the month. Some of this offensive came from a need to show success at the front. If their offensive is already starting to culminate, they paid with a lot of lives for about 0.02 percent of the land Ukraine was able to reoccupy.
In the meantime, Russia continued to attack civilian housing while claiming it was a CIA headquarters. If they killed as many NATO Generals, or spooks, as they claim, we would have a staffing crisis at the top.
Let me close with this because some European leaders are already preparing their people. We are not. They are also starting to spin up to a wartime economy:
French President Emmanuel Macron:
“We are certainly approaching a moment in our Europe where it will be appropriate not to be a coward,”
“War has returned to our land, powers that refuse to stop are extending the threat each day,”
“We will have to live up to history and the bravery it implies,” he said.
( Prague March 5, 2024)
Here is your reference to France spinning up. We are to a point, as well. And while our leaders are not telling us we are heading there, they are telling the warfighters. In my opinion, this should be in the Speech of the Union, but it will take a physical attack on the US. It’s just how our very dysfunctional politics work.