Ukraine War

Russia Takes Big Hits in the Air, on the Sea and in the Clubs

It has been a remarkable week for the Putin’s criminal state, but what are the implications?

Firstly, there has been a huge row in Russian media about a raunchy party by celebs in a Moscow night club. Normally, this sort of private event would have passed without comment as long as it was kept under wraps. Not so this time.

Then came the downing of several Russian Su-34s and the complete annihilation of the Novacherkassk landing ship.

What happened

I’ll get back to the party later, but the really important — even transformative — news is the major military losses inflicted on Russia in the last week or so by the best of Western weapons technology.

These were big hits and will be painful to those in the Stavka.

The aircraft

There was the mysterious takedown of a Su-24M bomber near Snake Island on the 5th December (still unexplained) but that was just the prelude to a tumultuous Christmas period for Russian military aviation.

“Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated on December 24 that Russian forces decreased their use of glide bombs and air strikes in southern Ukraine,” the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a report on 24 December 2023.

The move comes after Ukrainian forces said they shot down three Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers on December 21 and 22. Ukrainian officials said their armed forces destroyed another two Russian warplanes on Christmas Eve. In a Christmas Day update, Ukraine’s General Staff said its air defenses had destroyed a Russian Su-30 and an Su-34 aircraft.

On the Russian night attack of December 25 2023, 28 out of 31 “Shahed-136/131” UAVs were shot down.

Additionally, one SU-34 and one SU-30SM were shot down over Donetsk and the western Black Sea region respectively. (Astraia on Telegram)

There are other reports that 2 Russian helicopters were also downed but I have not been able to track the links.

And there is increasing speculation that F-16s are already operating in Ukrainian airspace.

Russian disinformation is at an all time high and they are claiming that they have destroyed several F-16s on the ground in Ukraine. This kind of social media chatter on the Z-channels is a clear sign that Russia is worried.

And the Russian pilot cadre must be seriously concerned. Suddenly they do not know what awaits them. Patriots, F-16s, Iris-T and NASAMS. In unexpected places.

The ships

In a strike on Feodosia, the Russian landing ship ‘Novocherkassk’ was destroyed (damaged in Russian). Ukrainian government channels have suggested that the strike was carried out by the Ukrainian Air Force. The general opinion is that either Storm Shadow or its French sister, Scalp, cruise missiles were used. The launch platform would probably have been the Su-24 Fencer.

According to Russian media outlet ASTRA, 77 sailors were on board the ship at the time of the attack on the night of December 26. At least 19 Russian sailors were wounded and 33 are missing

‘Novocherkask’ (BDK-46) — Project 775 (775/II) — was a Ropucha-class large amphibious landing ship, designed for landing amphibious assault on an unequipped coast and for the transfer of troops and cargo by sea.

It can transport various types of armoured vehicles, including tanks.

On this final night it is thought to have been carrying 4,400 artillery shells and 280 grad MLRS rockets which accounted for the spectacular explosion. A large piece of the ship was found outside a supermarket over one kilometre from the ship’s berth.

The ship was built at a shipyard in Gdańsk, Poland and launched on April 17, 1987. 38 years of age is old for an operational naval ship of this type and so Ukraine decided to distribute the ship.

Speed: 18 knots Range: 6000 miles at 12 knots Crew: 87 Displacement: 4080 tons Length: 112.5 meters Beam: 15 meters Draft: 3.7 meters

It could carry up to 500 tons of cargo and 225 soldiers and ‘drive’ on to a beach to use its bow doors to unload tanks and other cargo. Its relatively shallow draft of 3.7 metres meant that it could navigate the channels of the Sea of Azov and was able to dock at Berdyansk (where it was damaged by Ukrainian strike in March 2022 — and repaired).

UTS-150: Another ship was also seriously damaged in the attack. It is a very old naval cadet training ship, UTS-150. Collateral damage…

Following the attack, two naval vessels were seen to leave Feodosia harbour, probably heading southeast for Novorossysk. Russian ships do not have much choice these days.

This is a really serious issue for Russia. Crimea is denied to their navy.

And soon it will be denied to their air force as well.

Novocherkassk?

There’s some unpleasant history associated with the name of this now destroyed ship. The city of Novocherkassk is best known as the cultural capital of the Cossacks, and as the official capital of the Don Cossacks.

The Novocherkassk massacre was a massacre which was committed by the Soviet army and KGB against unarmed civilians who were rallying on 2 June 1962 in the Soviet city of Novocherkassk. A few weeks prior to the massacre, workers at the Electro Locomotive Novocherkassk plant (NEVZ) had organized a peaceful labor strike which later resulted in bloodshed and the killing of about 26 people. (Wikipedia)

The party

It happened at the Mutabor nightclub in Moscow. It didn’t exist when I worked in the city — the go-to club then for expats seeking company was Night Flight on Tverskaya (ex-Gorky) Street. Night Flight is still there. Another favourite of mine was Slavyansky’s Bazar, but that got burned down very suspiciously in 1993.

But time moved on and Mutador was created. So I’ll get back to the party in question. It was a minimal dress party. One well known Russian celeb (well known in Russia but nowhere else) attended wearing only a pair of trainers and a sock over his penis.

“Hosting such events at a time when our boys are dying in Ukraine and kids are losing their fathers is cynical,’ Astra, a Telegram news outlet, wrote, citing Russian Z-bloggers.

“There is a war going on in the country, but these beasts, scum are organizing all this, these brutes who don’t care what’s going on,” wrote one of the staunchest Putin loyalists, TV host Vladimir Solovyov, in a Telegram post.

It’s a bit rich coming from Solovyov when he has advocated the extermination of Ukraine on his TV show, as well as the bombing of Berlin and London.

The police raid on the Mutabor night club came after outraged Russians reported the event to authorities, accusing partygoers of infringing on the country’s LGBTQ+ “propaganda” laws and not adhering to “traditional values” espoused by Putin and his government.

The word ‘partygoers’ can have several interpretations in Russia.

Anyway, the scandal drew wide condemnation from Russia’s so-called Z-patriot nutters. It is seen as an embarrassment for Putin’s regime, whose embracing of “traditional values” became a key counterpoint to what it perceives as the decadent and “woke” ideology of the West.

The event — organized by Russian TV presenter and blogger Nastya Ivleeva — attracted a number of Russian celebrities including pop star Philipp Kirkorov, singer Lolita Milyavskaya and former presidential candidate Kseniya Sobchak. — Newsweek.com

Many of the party members are ‘well connected’.

This is an indication that the realities of the war are really beginning to hit home in Russia.

Enjoy the party…

Translation: And here’s what the guests at Ivleeva’s party looked like. They are already being denounced.

It would be good if Putin declared that they all be conscripted and shipped over the international border to Ukraine, but I doubt that he would to that. His friends would object — and right now he needs all the friends he can get.

And Putin does have red lines, as we know. “Traditional values” seems to be one of them. The soliviki are hitting the clubs hard — the Mutador is not alone in attracting police attention.

Please remind me of Putin’s other red lines.

Christmas Day

Ukraine celebrated Christmas on 25th December this year in a breakaway from the Orthodox date and surely a sign of committing to a vision of the country as a modern Western nation and not as [fill in your own words].

And the day was a fitting celebration following a week of Russian losses which are sure to be of concern in the Kremlin bunker.

The New Year celebrations are just around the corner.

Will Ukraine hit the Kerch Bridge again and finally?

I would not bet against it.

My novels are available at my Gumroad bookstore. Also at Amazon and Apple