Russia Officially Declares War on Ukraine & Mobilizes 300,000 Troops

Immediately after the ISIS terrorist attack in Moscow that killed at least 133 people and injured 145 at a concert hall on the outskirts of the city, the terrorist group took credit for the attack.

In a statement on Telegram, the Islamic State said the shooting came within the context of the “raging war” between Islamic State and countries fighting Islam.

Yet, still, Vladimir Putin managed to take advantage of this attack and blame Ukrainians, suggesting that “the Ukrainian side” had “prepared a window” for the terrorists to cross the border from Russia into Ukraine.

“They tried to hide and move towards Ukraine, where, according to preliminary data, a window was prepared for them from the Ukrainian side to cross the state border,” Putin said in a televised address.

Of course, Ukraine has had the opportunity to target citizens in retaliation against Russia’s war but fails to since the rules of war do not allow the needless and indiscriminate targeting of civilians. When Ukraine targets Russian territory, it takes out important military targets or refineries. Ukraine is simply not interested in killing Russian noncombatants.

That does not prevent Putin’s propaganda machine from taking advantage of the situation of course.

So, what will this mean for Ukraine? Will Putin further take advantage of this in order to bolster support for another mobilization?

Ukraine immediately denied Putin’s accusations that Ukraine is somehow to blame. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said that the remarks of Putin and “other thugs” are typical of the regime.

“What happened yesterday in Moscow is obvious: Putin and the other thugs are just trying to blame it on someone else,” Zelensky said.

He then added, “They have brought hundreds of thousands of their own terrorists here, on Ukrainian land, to fight against us, and they don’t care about what is happening inside their own country.”

“That low-life Putin, instead of dealing with his Russian citizens, addressing them, was silent for a full 24 hours, thinking about how to tie this to Ukraine,” he said. “It’s all absolutely predictable.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s foreign ministry said in a statement that Russian officials accused Ukraine “with the goals of stirring up anti-Ukrainian hysteria in Russian society and creating conditions to boost mobilisation of Russian citizens into the criminal aggression against our state.”

It should go without saying that all non-combatant casualties are a tragedy. We should never welcome them and we are right to condemn them even if the people killed might have views we disagree with.

The Crocus City Hall shooting was the deadliest attack in Russia since the 2004 Beslan school siege, in which 334 people, including 186 children, were killed after being held captive by militants for two days.

What we should also condemn, however, is Putin’s security failures. Reportedly, Russia was warned approximately a week in advance by US intelligence that a terrorist attack like this might happen.

It’s clear that Russia’s war on Ukraine is diverting attention that should be on the security of its nation.

Regardless, Putin will use this to bolster domestic support for the war just as he did earlier in his presidency when he bombed the capital of Chechnya, Grozny, reducing it to rubble in light of the Moscow bombings in 1999.

Could he use this for another mobilization?

The Official Declaration of War

As a result of the ISIS terrorist attack, for the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Kremlin has confirmed that they are in a state of war in Ukraine.

“We are in a state of war,” Dmitry Peskov said. He continued:

“Yes, it started as a special military operation, but as soon as this whole gang was formed, when the collective West took part in all this alongside Ukraine, for us it became a war. I am convinced of this, and everyone must understand it.”

Peskov’s remarks came as the independent outlet Verstka reported that Russia is planning to mobilize 300,000 troops to Ukraine this year.

These troops would primarily be comprised of reservists, re-contracted conscripts, and staff from defense contractors.

Ukraine already estimates that Russia has lost 500,000 troops in its war effort since 2022.

Russia has tens of thousands of troops in reserve near the Kremlin that act as security to Putin. They are not as desperate as we might want them to be since they have not been seen in combat.

Putin’s Secret Army

At Putin’s immediate disposal is the Praetorian Guard. According to credible sources, they are a very substantial force. This would amount to a Wagner Group equivalent.

There is also the F.S.O., which is the old bodyguard directorate of the K.G.B. — the directorate that guarded Gorbachev and the Politburo members. This is a vast amount of troops. Some estimate that there could be upward of 20,000 to 30,000 troops in this security detail.

Whatever the estimate of the F.S.O., it would have been able to face off Wagner’s coup in the summer of 2023 head-on without the direct support of Russia’s military.

Then there’s the National Guard, which is run by Zolotov. Zolotov was Yeltsin’s bodyguard and opposed the coup attempt by the security forces in the summer of 1991, just before the Soviet final collapse. Zolotov then became a bodyguard for Putin, and now, he is the general in charge of the National Guard.

All of these units are highly loyal to Putin and are not seen in the action in Ukraine.

Some have suggested that Russia is running out of troops. With the hundreds of thousands already in combat in Ukraine, Wagner mercenaries in Africa and elsewhere, the mobilization of 300,000 troops, and Putin’s personal security, it’s clear that Russia is in the upper hand when it comes to how many casualties they can amass.

So there’s the federal bodyguard directorate, the F.S.O., and the National Guard. These two large militias act as a noteworthy security around Putin especially because of their expressed loyalty. That is significant protection.

Russia’s Strategy in Ukraine

Furthermore, in the long term, Russia can continue to cause damage to Ukraine’s economy that would put it in even more dire circumstances. Ukraine’s economy was already comparable to that of Kazakhstan in global terms and has not fully recovered from the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Attacks on energy infrastructure are a potent force especially if Ukraine keeps running out of ammunition due to the slow support we are seeing from the US.

For example, Russia attacked Ukraine’s electrical power infrastructure over the weekend causing widespread outages and killing at least five people on Friday alone.

Zelensky said that on Friday alone Russia used more than 60 drones and about 90 rockets. This was the largest attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure this year and one of the largest since the outbreak of the war.

“Even last winter, attacks on our energy system were not as large as they were this night,” said the head of energy utility Ukrenergo, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi.

Of course, we all knew Russia was in a state of war with Ukraine, what else would you call it? Yet, up until the ISIS terrorist attack in Moscow, it was still possible to be penalized in Russia for stating this observable fact.

The terrorist attack has given the Kremlin more confidence in striking Ukraine and in mobilizing troops.

This is another precipice moment in Ukraine and it is some of the most significant developments since Prigozhin’s mutiny and death.

So, what now?

The war is far from over. The US Congress must realize this and continue aid. Without it, Ukraine will continue to lose precious lives. They might be able to defend their country but at what cost?

Ukraine needs weaponry to prevent the needless loss of life and show Russia that in order to win their war, they will have to lose more than another 500,000 troops.

Is that a cost Putin, and his enablers, are willing to pay? Let’s hope not.

As I have written elsewhere, Western intelligence indicates that Russia is planning to fight for at least another three years. It’s hard to imagine then that Russia will risk needlessly, but it is probable that they will continue to bombard Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and citizenry to indicate to the Russian public that they are the ones in control.

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