Wars may be fought with weapons, by they are won by men. It is the spirit of the men who follow and the spirit of the man who leads that gains victory. Cavalry Journal 1933
“Russia offers strong resistance, while sustaining considerable losses, Ukraine advances slowly, but surely” Zaluzhniy
This offensive isn’t going exactly according to plan, but it hasn’t failed either. Ukraine is doing a fine job, equipment and men will be lost, that’s war
The fog of war gives us a very limited quality of information that is available to us. This is especially pertinent to consider in the current situation. Currently, Ukraine is putting pressure on Bakhmut and on the southern front. Ukraine is also establishing a bridgehead in the area around the Antonivska bridge.
The actions in Bakhmut didn’t involve any new brigades thus far. The operations there appear to be intended to fix Russian troops in the area and to draw more troops there to defend Bakhmut. Many onlookers aren’t realistic about their expectations.
Ukraine has to fight without air superiority, and all things considered it’s going pretty well.
This isn’t Iraq or Vietnam. This is a war fought in the style of World War 1. There are heavy losses on either side. In 3 days, Oryx data confirmed that Russia had lost 38 pieces of equipment, and Ukraine had lost 15 pieces. In total, Russia has lost 11.000 pieces of equipment.
A war of attrition is won by money, logistics, and superior willpower
Ukraine is facing intense enemy resistance. There are mines everywhere, and the Russians are redeploying more troops. Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesperson of the Ukrainian military, said that there are 230.000 Russian troops across the frontline. 50.000 soldiers are in the Bakhmut area.
The remaining 150.000 Russian soldiers are positioned in the South
Ukraine is advancing where they can, but we, as the observers, must have patience. This offensive will continue for at least another two up to three months. Let’s have a look around the battlefield. Screwups are an important, immortal, and omnipotent part of military history.
“It’s not a show the whole world is watching and betting on or anything. Every day, every meter is given by blood. Without being fully supplied, these plans are not feasible at all, but they are being carried out. Yes, maybe not as fast as the observers would like, but that is their problem.” Zalushny
- Norther Front Lines Belarus, Sumy
The Wagner soldiers are receiving new barracks. In my opinion, they look like they are made for chicken and not soldiers. There won’t be an attack from the North. Wagner won’t fight in Ukraine anymore. These developments weaken Russia which is good news for Ukraine. Ukraine has its norther defenses in place. Poland has sent an additional 500 policemen to the border with Belarus. Russia has problems recruiting men, so students need to agree to sign military contracts to receive their diplomas.
The Wagner Group is reportedly suspending regional recruitment on a temporary basis. ISW
2. Belgorod region, Rostov
The situation has somewhat calmed down for now after the attempted coup by Wagner. The Freedom of Russia legion hasn’t re-entered the area for the time being. Wagner has shot down several helicopters, and 13 officers are dead. The Wagnerites have severely damaged a fuel depot in Voronezh.
3. Cherson region, the battle across the Dnipr
The water receded after Russia had blown up the Kakhovka dam. The ISW reports that Ukraine attempts to expand its bridgehead across the Dnipr river. Russian forces aren’t sufficiently prepared for that potentiality. The army has confiscated poaching boats from Tatarstan. The call for more adequate equipment was left unanswered by Russia’s incompetent leadership.
4. Bakhmut area, the battle of Donbas
The fighting is ongoing at Bakhmut’s flanks. Ukraine speaks of fruitful and steady advances in recent days. Russia has been on the offensive for many months in this area. Wagner lost over 50.000 men killed or wounded to take the city. On this line of advance, there are far fewer concentric lines of marked fortifications. Russia got mine fields there and other defensive points as well as pre-sighted artillery positions. So, it’s far from an easy task to retake the city.
The Ukrainian forces are moving forward day by day along the flanks of Bakhmut
The bulk of Russian forces is stationed alongside the Southern flank. That gives Ukraine the option to make steady gains towards Yahidne. Ukraine recently took Kromove. This village is roughly 4 kilometers away from the city center of Bakhmut. The other line of advance goes towards Klischchiivka.
The flanks of Bakhmut are on a high ground. Ukraine will sooner or later retake the city of Bakhmut
In my opinion, Russia will leave Bakhmut within the next 30 to 60 days by performing yet another goodwill gesture. The attacks on all fronts remain on a contained scale. In the area of Bakhmut, Ukraine wasn’t using its new Western brigades.
5. The main effort in the South (Saporishia, Crimea, Mariupol)
At the end of the day, it is not the map that counts. The attrition rate is what matters. The UAF is not just bashing into Russian lines. Ukraine searches for a weak spot in Russia’s defense. This is a slow advance. Ukraine has a plan we need to learn to trust them more. Presently, the main effort is directed towards a counter battery battle. Since the beginning of May, Ukraine has hunted down and destroyed Russian artillery equipment with increased frequency.
Ukraine claims it has destroyed 4000 artillery pieces, 630 MLRS systems
I caution against taking these numbers at face. The numbers that Ukraine publishes are indicative. They can show us patterns. The armed forces of Ukraine have also blown up many command centers and ammo depots. Over 20 of them were blown up in just the past 2 weeks.
On May first, Ukraine reported that it had destoyed 2900 tube artillery pieces and 544 MLRS
On July 4th, 2023, Ukraine states it has destroyed 4200 tube artillery systems and 640 MLRS
These battles happen all along the frontlines. Ukraine has only made incremental gains thus far
There are different lines of advance. The main effort has not been decided, yet.
The first effort is made in the Vasylivka direction which is an important supply hub. There is fierce fighting going on for the villages of Lobkove and Pyatykhatky.
The second effort is made towards Robotyne.
The third axis is the Velika Novosilka axis towards Staromaiorske.
The main objective of Ukraine appears to be to reach Tokmak. This is a major rail and transport hub
Russia knows this. The locations closest to Tokmak are the Omaha beach of this offensive. The goal of this effort appears to be to cut the Russian troops in half.
Ukraine attempts to split the frontline in the southeast and southwest
The first axis of adcance leads towards the village of Zherebianky. There is a heavy attritional battle taking place there. Ukraine has failed to carve out significant territory on this axis.
The second axis goes through Robotyne and Novoropovika. Ukraine and Russia continue to pivot from defense to offense. Ukraine is in Russia’s trenches in Robotyne which isn’t good news for Russia.
The third axis of Velika Novosilka goes towards Staromaiorske which is in a valley. The UAF will advance towards Pryiutne which is on a high ground.
Maneuver warfare works best when the attacking force manages to get behind enemy lines to encircle them. Ukraine could still get into a maneuver phase. Time will tell the tale in the coming weeks.
6. General observations
Both sides have suffered heavy losses in recent weeks
Ukraine claims that 7 Ka52 helicopters were shot down since the beginning of the offensive. Russia conducts “aggressive defense” here. This means Russia launches active counterattacks in the East and South. Russian losses aren’t commensurate with a situation where everyone is hiding in their trenches and is waiting for the enemy to come to them.
The confirmed losses by Oryx serve as a soft floor
These confirmed losses aren’t an authoritative total estimate. The historical ratio of claimed to confirmed losses was 3.3:1. This means there is one visual confirmation for every three claimed losses of equipment.
Russia is short on airframes and pilots which raises questions of force sustainability
I can read maps and count equipment. It is much harder to assess from the outside whether the Russian soldiers would stand, freeze, break, fight, or run when the offensive began. I was surprised to find out that most units held their ground. Some also mutinied. It is too early to assess how the Russian soldiers will behave once the main thrust of Ukraine commences.
In terms of pacing of the offensives of the war, this one ranks among the faster offensive operations. Every offensive has a different pace. On every phase of attrition, a phase of movement has followed thus far.
The Russian Invasion and its good will gestures 2022
Charkiv 2022
UA counter offensive 2023
Cherson 2022 (opening)
Bakhmut (2022/2023)
Russian winter offensive 2022/2023
Equipment, losses, logistics, and sustainment
Here are some harsh arithmetics to consider going forward. Capability improves suvivability. It doesn’t give Ukraine invulnerability. Attritional warfare dictates that the demand must exceed the capacity of the opponent to replenish his supplies.
The Ukrainians will force Russia to fight. This attrition is causing wounds. It exhausts Russian supplies and resources. War is no game. This offensive is costly and ugly. If it was a failure or a success, depends on:
1. State of the forces
2. Questions around obtaining and exploiting a breach
3. Logistics and sustainability
The Russian defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the MoD have honored Russian medical personnel
Over 70 percent of doctors, paramedics, and junior medical personnel received combat experience. More than 4500 military doctors have received awards. This doesn’t suggest that the reserve army is waiting at home.
Russia is all in. Ukraine is all in
Nikolai Parshin a Lt. General of the Russian armed forces recently stated that 4000 artillery pieces were reactivated. He also stated that 700 more artillery pieces would go to the front soon. Perun searched for this base. The factory is called Omsktransmashzavod.
Satellite imagery shows that approximately 500 pieces of artillery pieces were removed from the 94th arsenal between August 2022 and April 2023. Most of these were 2S7s pion artillery guns. The paper reserves of Russia are impressive.
16.000 howitzers (12.000 are towed and the vast majority are 122mm systems. Thousands of them are ancient from WW2, or the early days of the Cold War)
3200 MRLS
2600 mortars
Many of these pieces have the wrong caliber. This makes their serviceability questionable. 3000 of these reserve pieces date back to the year 1938–1960. These pieces are ancient 122mm howitzer guns.
The claim that 4000 of these artillery pieces have been reactivated raises an eyebrow
Perun states that military equipment is removed from deep storage sites at prodigious rates. Russia is going through systems, barrels, and artillery tubes by the thousands. Adaptions were made on both sides. We will see more hard attritional fighting. The common feature of this war for any major gains was either a rapid movement to catch the other side by surprise or through attrition.
Ukraine hasn’t committed the bulk of its forces. Here is a list of confirmed losses by Oryx
Leopard 7/75 (9.5 percent)
Bradley 18/124 (14.5 percent)
MAXPRO 41/440 (9.3 percent)
Ukraine is facing problems, of course. For example, there is a shortage of short-range air defense (SHORAD). The total number of pledged German made Gepards is around 50. Ukraine needs them behind the frontlines against drone attacks, but then they are missing at the frontline. If we focus on the territory Ukraine has captured, this offensive is still going much faster than, for example, last year’s Cherson offensive.
We must ensure that Ukraine gets the time they need to liberate its territory with minimal losses of life and equipment
There are still Russia’s main defense lines, which are further back. We will see more destroyed Leopards, Bradleys. The JDAM (small diameter bombs) are missing. This is a problem. Boeing can’t deliver those prior to October.
General Milley assesses that Ukraine would need 100k shells per week. The West can’t produce so many shells yet. We weren’t prepared for a war of this size. Hungary blocks a lot of good initiatives.
ATACMS and other long range capacity is still missing. The F16s are coming in late
Cluster ammo is not provided. Support vehicles are kept in storage instead of bringing them to the front. I can only implore our politicians to put the maximum capacity into these pipelines instead of prancing around like a pony for every single system that Ukraine asks for.
Summary and conclusion
We haven’t seen the bulk of Ukraine’s force yet. Concentrating forces in an artillery war is dangerous. We saw small sub units which were put together. The Ukrainians hold a lot more back than they have put into the fight so far. Missteps have been made, and more mistakes are yet to come.
We have been distracted by Russia’s woes. Endurance matters.
This is a slogging match. The ones that exhaust first will lose. Half of the USSRs population and its economy were from the satellite states besides Russia. Without her empire, Russia is nothing. All roads still lead to Crimea.
Dear reader, thanks for reading my article.
Please consider clapping, commenting, or following me on Medium.
Take care and be well.
Sources:
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/3/7409689/
