Geopolitics
Russia: Prigozhin’s Kitchen of the Absurd
and on 24 June 2023 the longest bake-off started and is far from over
What a day and night and day! The story had surprises at every turn and is far from over.
The metaphors and cliches are pouring out about the crazy day in the history of Russia, the further weakening of Putin and the seemingly total capitulation of Prigozhin. One analogy for the events is a circus because of the Wagnerian tank stuck in the entrance to a Rostov circus.
But I’m going with cookery as I try to track through what I thought were the key events as I watched the cook-off proceed.
Soufflé: An egg-based dish when combined with various other ingredients, it can be served as a savory main dish or sweetened as a dessert. The word soufflé is the past participle of the French verb souffler which means “to blow,” “to breathe,” “to inflate,” or “to puff”.
Prigozhin, Putin’s chef, planned his soufflé carefully. But it turned out flat, collapsed. Prigozhin got the timing wrong; the ingredients were not properly measured although he had apparently spent two months accumulating ammunition while he lied about the supplies he was (not) receiving from the Russian Ministry of Defence.
Maybe he didn’t turn up the heat enough in the oven. He certainly puffed hard, but not hard enough it seems.
Soufflés are tricky to bake. If you thump the oven when they are baking then they fall flat. They are full of hot air. Delicate. Timing is important too, as is oven temperature.
I watched the cookery trailer from Russia, wondering if it would turn into the full-on crowd-sourced cooking class. But the crowds did not turn up and the Russian army sat tight, loyal to Putin — or waiting for a better opportunity. They were not ready for French cuisine. They stuck to traditional Russian zakuski.
Putin sent the plate back.
Prigozhin has left the kitchen.
For now.
Who could have created such a recipe?
The Russian government is so incompetent it could not even organise a proper civil war. Or prevent a march on Moscow.
But be thankful.
Putin may have been fatally weakened by the cookery competition but there was serious concern in NATO capitals about control of the world’s largest nuclear arsenal if events in Russia deteriorated to full-on civil war. NATO could not have stood on the sidelines.
Maybe NATO saw it more as a zoo in which the animals were close to running wild.
Notable events as the bake-off proceeded
I’ve tried to make sense of all the hot air in the souffle:
Early on 24th, Belarus self-proclaimed President Lukashenko’s jet flew to Bodrum in Turkey (was he aboard?)
At 07:30 in the morning on 24 June, Prigozhin and the Wagner forces occupy Russia’s Southern District Command HQ at Rostov-on-Don, 500 km from the Kremlin. The command HQ runs the day-to-day war in Ukraine and Rostov is the key logistics hub as well as a major naval port. There was no resistance.
Putin’s command plane was tracked out of Moscow
There was an exodus from Moscow of private jets with oligarchs:
Moscow blocked the highways to Moscow with little effect, the Wagnerians pushed the trucks aside:
By lunchtime, Wagner troops had reached Voronezh, a city half way between Rostov and Moscow. They were equipped with the Pantsir air defence system and destroyed several Russian helicopters and an Antonov airborne command post. This is what Oryx lists as the Chef’s special:
- 1 Il-22M Airborne Command Post Or An-24/26 Transport Aircraft: (1, destroyed
- 1 Mi-8 Transport Helicopter: (1, destroyed)
- 3 Mi-8MTPR-1 Electronic Warfare Helicopters: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, damaged)
- 1 Mi-35M Attack Helicopter: (1, destroyed)
- 1 Ka-52 ‘Alligator’ Attack Helicopter: (1, destroyed)
Then a Russian Ka-52 “Alligator” attack helicopter of the Russian Air Force bombed an oil storage tank farm at Voronezh to remove fuel supply availability to Wagner.
By now Ramzan Kadyrov’s Akhmat battalion were headed up the M4 Moscow highway to take on Wagner, but got stuck in a traffic jam. Unbelievable.
Then the leader of the Belarusian opposition, Tykhanovskaya, appealed to the Belarusian security forces to expel the Russian army from the country.
I went out to lunch at that point — a long standing engagement with my daughter whom I hadn’t seen in four years. When I got back, there was more chaos in the kitchen. I just could not believe it.
The souffle had collapsed and the Chef was leaving the kitchen.
People of Rostov taking pictures with Prigozhin just before he left the city and was forced into exile in Belarus. They seem quite fond of a guy whose troops killed 13 pilots of the Russian Air Force on the same day. — Twitter
Apparently.
⚡️Peskov’s statements:
— The criminal case against Prigozhin will be terminated, he will “leave for Belarus”;
— Personnel changes in the Ministry of Defense during the negotiations with Prigozhin were not discussed;
— Part of the Wagner PMC fighters, who initially refused to participate in Prigozhin’s “campaign”, will sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense;
— There will be no new Putin address in the near future;
— Peskov does not know who Prigozhin will work after he leaves for Belarus;
— There was a higher goal to avoid bloodshed and internal confrontation, in the name of these goals were the efforts of Lukashenko;
— Putin and Lukashenko agreed to mediate efforts to resolve the situation with Wagner.
What a joke.
New recipe required.
The Ukraine perspective
Russia lost valuable helicopters, a C&C plane and thirteen even more valuable pilots in the fiasco that Prigozhin created, which is ultimately to Ukraine’s advantage.
It seems that Ukraine’s armed forces engaged a higher gear in the their offensive as the confusion in Moscow developed.
Russian pro-government telegram channels report intensified fighting in the area of Antonivskyi Bridge.
Allegedly, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have crossed the Dnipro River and have already deployed up to 5 tanks. (Telegram)
The UAF made significant advances in the Bakhmut region:
And there were reports of widespread Russian surrenders in the Zaporizhzhia salient and progress towards Robotyne.
It seems that the build-up to the full Ukrainian counter-offensive is now reaching a peak. Just the build up.
History books
People may have started writing books about the events of 23/24 June 2023, but the final chapter is far from clear.
A soufflé can be cooked as a dessert. Maybe there’s another Prigozhin course to come for Putin?
25 June 2023, 08:00 Zulu:
Can you really see Prigozhin retiring quietly to play golf and dig precious metals at his African mines? No, he’ll stick to hunting and fishing, for sure. With a bit of cooking on the side.
Meanwhile back in Moscow
Developing: It seems that some of the Chef’s demands for new ingredients will be met by Putin.
If competent people are appointed to these posts by Putin, that is not good news for Ukraine. Competence in the Russian government and military is the last thing Ukraine needs right now.
And the new recipe is…?
Prigozhin and Wagner to attack Kyiv from Belarus.
Ukraine’s leaders must guard against a possible attack led by Yevgeny Prigozhin launched at Kyiv from Belarus, General Lord Richard Dannatt tells Trevor Phillips on Sky News.
“The fact that he’s gone to Belarus is a matter of some concern,” said the former British Army chief of general staff.
If he has “kept an effective fighting force around him then he presents a threat again to the Ukrainian flank closest to Kyiv”, where the war began, he said.
Lord Dannatt said it “is quite possible” that Russia may use the Wagner Group to try and take Kyiv again. — SkyNews
Suspend disbelief
When you write a book, a piece of fiction, you need to engage your reader to suspend disbelief and accept the outrageous premise of your plot. If I’d tried to write a book with a storyline like we’ve seen live in the last couple of days, do you think a reader would be able to suspend disbelief?
No way.
This history book is far from finished.
I guarantee variety in your inbox with some unusual perspectives! I write on a wide range of topics that interest me including humour, tech, space, geopolitics. I also write about…
…cookery classes
My novels are available at my Gumroad bookstore. Also at Amazon and Apple
My history books are still being written