Russia is Destabilizing

Update:

This literally just came through my feed. There are many reasons, including internal instability, that it is possible. Remember the shuttle diplomacy I have been mentioning? After yesterday there likely was a lot of diplomatic traffic in the direction of Moscow. It’s a guess on my part, but this matters:

This is through Censor Net and it’s a big deal, why the update:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he had received signals from Western partners regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desire for direct negotiations with Ukraine.

“I received signals. That Putin wants direct negotiations. I received such signals. I proposed a public form, because Russia is waging a public war,” the president told reporters.

He also confirmed a meeting with CIA Director Burns. “Yesterday, Burns sat in the bomb shelter. And then we talked with him. We discussed all the issues that are important to us. We know each other. He is on the side of Ukraine,” Zelensky said.

This morning there were signals in Telegram that destabilization in Russia is accelerating. These are the things that are of interest because this is a direct result of this war. The first came from Nicolai Patrushev…and it came from yet another resistance channel, the Russian Legion.

It is necessary to toughen the fight against partisans — Patrushev Patrushev called for building up the forces and means of air defense and counter-battery warfare in order to cover the areas where critical and potentially dangerous objects are located in the center of Russia. In addition, he considers the guerrilla movement to be the second threat to security. According to him, “radicals” are engaged in subversive activities, therefore “there are facts of deliberate interference in the operation of critical facilities, including fuel and energy complexes.” “L” For Russia! For freedom!

There are a few remarkable things here. Does he want more anti-air units far from the front? Is Russia expecting Ukraine to invade the Federation? Or do they fear locally produced drones operated by a growing partisan movement?

These are very relevant questions. Are Russians leaving the couch and becoming citizens? are Russians starting to act to weaken the authoritarian space? I have been following the resistance since at least March. I have seen it grow haltingly at first.

This stands out from Patrushev’s statement: “…there are facts of deliberate interference in the operation of critical facilities, including fuel and energy complexes.”

These attacks have happened from the beginning. Now they are taking them seriously, at least openly. This brings me to the next post from the Legion:

The Oryol governor announced the blowing up of an oil depot in the region “Today, at about four o’clock in the morning, presumably, an unmanned aerial vehicle carried out an undermining of an oil depot in the village of Stalnoy Kon. There were no casualties. All operational services are working on the spot, ”said Andrey Klychkov, Governor of the Oryol Region. The village of Steel Horse is located more than 170 km from the border with Ukraine. “L” For Russia! For freedom!

So, somebody used a UAV to attack a fuel facility. This is a strategic target. Patrushev referred to Air Defense troops. They likely don’t have those troops. The Russian Army is highly degraded, and this includes military formations that were created for internal control: OMON, Kadirovites, and National Guard.

This is a more sophisticated attack as well than burning recruiting stations, Z Cars, or even train junction boxes. Somebody is upping their game. And there is more. This also points to cooperation between Ukraine Special Services and the Russian Partisan movement.

And there is more. Today a Colonel died in the Far East. Of course, it was suicide because all murders of people who know stuff are always suicides:

Vladivostok. A colonel who worked with the mobilized was found shot dead in his own office. Eyewitnesses heard five shots. The duty officer was the first to run into the office, who saw the body of the colonel with gunshot wounds to the chest. Criminologists found five shell casings and four Makarov pistols. And no suicide note. Colonel Vadim Boyko was deputy head of the Pacific Higher Naval School, head of the technical support department. As often happens, the main version of the public is suicide. Shot himself in the chest five times to be sure

There were four guns and five shell casings left behind. That’s a message. I will say it now; it was not suicide. I don’t have any more on this. But it reminds me of a family story from my husband's side of the family. It involves a Second Lieutenant during Vietnam. They were deep in the bush. Apparently, Charlie threw eight grenades into the Lieutenant’s tent. No, the young man did not survive, and none of the squad saw a thing.

Was this Colonel’s death fragging? Was this the mob doing a hit? Was this the FSB? We will never know because suicide is always the explanation for any death where no explanation is wanted or needed.

Then there are two posts from Atesh, yet another partisan group, this one in the border Region:

Patrushev, repeat again. What about terrorist attacks?

This is a clear reference to the post referencing Nikolai Patrushev. They know he is aware of their existence. It’s the second one that is tantalizing. Are these airfields in Crimea? The Saki airfield could be the target. Or are these airfields within Russia? Stay tuned.

It will be hot soon. Airfields will burn

Now let me switch gears and turn to SVR. I always treat them with caution because they are also used for dangles. We need to know how Vladimir Putin has lived, well, beyond what most pancreatic patients survive.

However, this morning's post gave us, possibly, two things. Putin still rejects any peace except on his terms. At this point, Ukraine showed a willingness to negotiate. There is more. Putin is desperate to bring NATO openly into the war. So he has ordered the activation of groups in the West to sow hate and discontent. This is an old Soviet KGB tactic.

Here is the post in full. Still, treat it with caution. And I wonder if the British press will pick on this one.

Dear subscribers and guests of the channel! Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his own style, “formalized” the rejection of the peace proposal he received. We have already reported that it is precisely the next massive missile attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure that will mean Putin’s rejection of proposals to move to a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine on terms that the Kremlin considered unacceptable. Putin rejected not only proposals, but also ultimatums put forward in parallel with the “peace proposal.” Now the most influential Western “partners” will insist on the immediate transfer of Crimea to Ukraine and no delays and compromises. Putin on Monday, holding a meeting via video link with the leadership of the power and military bloc, spoke unambiguously in the direction of escalation. Moreover, the President of Russia stated that: “the operation is limited to the territory of Ukraine and this is the problem. Everything stagnated and stinks there, it is necessary to expand the scope.” Then Putin uttered a phrase that surprised all the participants of the meeting: “It’s time to shake NATO! It’s time to shake NATO!” The President expressed his thoughts, supporting this idea with arguments and suggested using “blanks”, meaning a number of operations that were developed and prepared for implementation, but postponed indefinitely. According to Putin, two weeks ago, he personally instructed the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the head of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Igor Kostyukov, to start implementing several similar operations on the territory of third countries. Putin said that he considers “the allies should be pumped first” pointing to Turkey and Hungary and “smoothly move to Poland and the Baltic states.” The President noted the confidence in the absence of a military response from NATO and considers such tactics effective, at least to reduce the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Putin summed it up with the words: “Without this, we cannot survive. We must raise the stakes, demonstrating a willingness to go all the way until they give up.” This caused even more surprise and several participants in the meeting expressed their dissatisfaction with the fact that they were not aware of what was happening. So, already at the end of the discussion, while remaining in touch, the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Nikolai Patrushev, directly reproached the president for the fact that there were no secrets of this kind from him before. Putin replied, “Times are changing.” Putin raises the stakes to the limit without having a single winning combination in his hands, but one bluff will not get him far and sooner rather than later, he will lose everything.

Incidentally, the current view is that the missile that hit Poland was Ukrainian. It was a spillover. I can say that if that SVR post is close to the truth, a war in the shadows will soon, if not already, get underway. This brings me to this last post from Ygal Levin:

British intelligence: Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, 600 Russian diplomats have been expelled from Europe, 400 of whom intelligence officials believe are involved in espionage activities. This is the biggest blow to the spy network in recent history, now European intelligence is actively exchanging information in order to prevent the entry of new Russian spies.

This means that the control network for these people has already been greatly degraded. Are we to expect attacks within Europe? If General SVR is even close to the truth, we are. Realize that if Putin’s intent is to drag NATO in because he’d rather lose to us than Ukraine, it's ideological, at some point we will have no choice.

Yesterday was a reminder of why alert levels for NATO formations in the East are likely going to be raised. Its also a signal to Moscow.