Russia is burning and will be an importer of Gasoline

Summary

Russia is facing significant challenges in its oil refining capacity due to Ukrainian drone strikes, potentially becoming a net importer of refined petroleum products.

Abstract

The article discusses the unexpected turn of events in Russia's oil industry, where the country, known for its oil exports, is on the verge of becoming a net importer of refined petroleum products, such as gasoline and diesel. This shift is primarily due to the ongoing conflict with Ukraine, which has resulted in drone strikes on Russian refineries, causing substantial damage and loss of production capacity. The article highlights that 25% of Russia's refineries have been affected, leading to a significant reduction in oil output and refining capacity for aviation fuel and diesel. The author also points out the high fuel consumption in military operations, emphasizing the potential impact on Russia's war efforts. The article concludes with the possibility of Ukraine developing drones with a range capable of reaching refineries in Siberia.

Opinions

The author expresses surprise and skepticism about Russia's strategic decisions, particularly its decision to engage in a conflict with Ukraine that has led to significant damage to its oil refineries.
The author suggests that Russia's refining capacity within drone distance of Ukraine was a strategic misstep.

Drones go boom

Not content to burn its bridges with European gas junkies, getting low-balled by so called Chinese friends, and creating an uninsured Shadow fleet of ageing tankers that deliver Oil to India that pays in Rupees they can’t spend- Ol Russia, led by master strategist Putin, is set to become a net importer of refined petroleum products (Gasoline/Petrol).

You just can’t make this stuff up. Russia decided to war its neighbour, in the so called Special let-our-refineries burn Operation.

Russia, in all its mighty wisdom, has 50% of its refining capacity within drone distance of Ukraine. So far 25% of its refineries have been hit, on a daily game of “We really need to park that S-400 somewhere, but where?”

600,000 Barrels of oil a day are out of commission so far. Now, that is about 5% of Russia’s oil output which might not sound so impressive. But it is in refined oil where it really stings. Just in the last week, 7% of Russia’s aviation fuel refining went out of action, as well as 6% of its Diesel. Just in one week. Napoleon stated an army runs on its stomach, but a Military it is oil, oil and more oil.

Oil consumption in Military operations is insane. It is especially insane for aircraft fuel. A fighter jet can burn 4000 pounds of fuel per hour cruising, this jumps up dramatically in combat.

A tank can use 15 gallons of fuel per hour at idle.

Russia won’t be exporting diesel anytime soon either, that has been halted.

The only saving grace for Russia is it does not need to fuel its Black Sea fleet that much, what hasn’t become seabed wrecks for the delight of future divers, is pretty much parked. Warships spend thousands in fuel just to pop out of harbour.

Now Russia might be a bit more economical than the US when it comes to wartime fuel use. During the Iraq war, every single soldier in terms of transport, logistics cost 27 gallons per day. Multiply that by the number of soldiers. With hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers in Ukraine, feeding them and transporting them- let alone have them fight, costs a pretty Rouble( not those easily faked 1000 rouble notes, have some class, bundles of 5000 rouble notes please.)

Ukraine is hitting so many Russian refineries so often, the Olympic commitee is considering them to be a torch bearer.

If you want to hear some Russian curse words( and let me tell you, their slang is rich and colourful), head over to your Youtube, TikTok or venture forth onto Telegram. It is a whole education for those who don’t speak Russian, peppered with “Where are our Anti-Air defences?!”

And right now the evangelical Ukrainians, spreading their message of “Russia a land without refineries makes crude neighbours” a working on drones with 2500–3000km capability- making the great wall of the Urals, into the Siberia oily heart, within range- including the refinery at Omsk.

I would normally suggest popcorn, but a barbecue seems apt. Just go light on the oil.