Ukraine War
Russia: 4 Own Goals in Bryansk in 1 Day?
A tantalising suggestion from Progozhin himself. If it’s correct then I bet there’s a lot of ROFLMYA* in Kyiv
According to Russian journalists, the aircraft were all part of one aviation group. The jet was covering the bomber, while both helicopters were covering the planes using electronic warfare systems and were supposed to evacuate the fighters’ pilots in case something went wrong. The distance between the crash sites and the Ukrainian border is no longer than 45 km. (novagazeta.eu)
Daniil Bezsonov, a Russian military blogger, blogged that “The enemy most likely acted from an ambush by its air defense forces, which had moved into the border zone in advance, from which the distance would allow our air group to be hit. So the enemy most likely knew the route and time of our air group’s departure.” (CNN)
There was also consternation among Russian bloggers that one Mi-8 helicopter shot down had advanced jamming equipment.
One Russian Telegram account said it was “complete idiocy” to send such a helicopter so close to Ukrainian defenses, saying “you had to be completely detached from reality” to send the specially-equipped Mi-8s into such a zone. — CNN
Prigozhin’s theory, which I really like:
“I’m doing Bakhmut”?
No, Bakhmut’s doing you, Prigo.
But Prigozhin’s view is seen as opportunistic. If a local Russian air defence system had been involved then local people would have seen ascending missile smoke trails. There were no reports of this.
More angles on the story
If this was a Ukrainian military operation then:
Ukrainian military expert and colonel in the AFU reserve Roman Svitan also agrees that Russian aircraft became the prey of Ukraine’s air defence that was lying in wait. He claims that Ukraine’s Armed Forces used the same strategy to shoot down a Su-34 bomber in the sky above the occupied city of Yenakiyeve, Donetsk region, this March (novagazeta.eu, ibid.)
and
…also suggests — as a number of unofficial Russian sources have pointed out — that Ukraine in this case possessed detailed intelligence about the planned Russian mission. That may be as of much concern in Russia as the loss of four aircraft over Russian territory — CNN
Alternatively…
Oleksandr Musiyenko, head of the Centre for Military and Legal Studies, tells Novaya-Europe. “We’re talking about sabotage from within the Russian army. According to flight plans, the helicopters and planes were ordered to fly maintaining radio silence which purposefully made them potential friendly fire targets. It’s likely that within Russian law enforcement and military there is a group of people who want the war to end as soon as possible, with Ukraine winning, and for Putin’s regime to collapse.” (novagazeta.eu, ibid.)
The fog of war is impenetrable, but what is certain is that this was a black day for Russia. Losing four aircraft (even five by some reports) in one day is a catastrophe.
I have to say that I like all the theories equally and whichever one is correct is any many ways irrelevant. There will be dismay and nervousness in Moscow. Russian heads will be rolling.
*In case you don’t know:
ROFLMAO
- (Internet slang) Initialism of rolling on the floor laughing my ass (or arse) off; used to indicate great amusement. — Wiktionary
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