Ron DeSantis Shouldn’t Run Against Trump
He might beat him. But he might not.
The general consensus, in the wake of former President Donald Trump announcing Tuesday night that he would be running for the office again in 2024, was: Yawn. News organizations fell all over themselves showing how much “tougher” they’d be on him this time, cable stations (including Fox News) cut away in the middle of his speech and even the New York Post actively mocked him. After the Republicans’ disappointing performance in the midterms last week, thanks largely to Trump-loyal candidates that most voters dismissed as “crazy” or “stupid” or “crazy and stupid,” the party has made a clear signal that they’d like to move past Trump, and toward Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who had a terrific night on Tuesday and might have turned the once-purple state of Florida beet red. It led to widespread speculation that DeSantis, with the party behind him, will end up being the Republican nominee in 2024, and it makes sense: DeSantis looks strong, Trump looks weak, and the midterms made it crystal clear that if Republicans continue to stick with Trump, they will lose … again.
But I’ll confess: If I’m Ron DeSantis, I consider that a Republicans Problem, not a Ron DeSantis Problem. For all the things that Ron DeSantis is — and it’s possible one of them is “an asshole” —he is not stupid. He is ambitious, clearly, ambitious enough to run for President. But I’m not sure the best play is to run right now. If I’m DeSantis, even with all the momentum he has, I sit this one out and run in 2028.
It’s not that difficult to game out why.
- Ron DeSantis is young. Well, young, relatively speaking: He’s only 44 years old, which means if he waits until 2056 to run, he will still be younger than Donald Trump will be on Election Day 2024. But he doesn’t have to wait nearly that long. If he waits until 2028, he’ll only be 48 years old. You can only serve eight years as governor in Florida, which means he’ll finish his term in 2026, just in time to start campaigning for a Republican nomination that, with Trump out of the way by then, may well be his for the taking. He can just sit back, raise money, go on Fox News and look all the more like the same sane, effective alternative to Trump that he looks like right now.
- If Trump loses in 2024, DeSantis looks even stronger. That, for the record, would be four consecutive Republican defeats in a row (five if you count Hillary Clinton getting more votes than Trump in 2016, though you, uh, probably shouldn’t count that). You know how the party is (theoretically) ready to move on from Trump now? Imagine if he loses to Biden again. (Which he will be likely to do.) DeSantis becomes essentially the unchalleged tyrant king of a Republican party that, let’s face it, is always looking to crown an unchallenged tyrant king. A 2024 Trump loss really might be the death blow to Trump’s political career. DeSantis will be perfectly positioned to pick up the pieces of his shattered party.
- If Trump wins in 2024, he can’t run again anyway. Barring some sort of dictatorial fiat (and we absolutely shouldn’t put that past him) or the end of the Republic as we know it (also on the table), Trump, if he wins in 2024, can go no further after that. He will have served two terms by 2028, and that is it. Maybe Trump’s successful (highly unlikely, but I suppose it is possible!), maybe he isn’t, but he’s definitely done by then. Either DeSantis takes over a successful administration, or he again can play the “I can fix it” role. Either way, Trump is out of his way.
- Running against Trump is an extremely efficient way to get most Republican voters to start hating you. People might not have loved Jeb Bush before he ran for President, but by the end of the 2016 primary season, his name (and his Jeb! punctuation mark) was a nationwide joke. And Trump wasn’t nearly as desperate then as he is now. Trump will do anything to destroy DeSantis who, unlike Jeb, is a legitimate threat. Maybe Republicans like DeSantis now. Will they like him after Trump throws 60 years of Roger Stone muscle memory at him every day for 16 months? DeSantis has been able to stay above the Trump fray throughout his term as Florida governor. Challenging Trump trains every single round of ratfucking firepower directly onto DeSantis’ forehead. Is he ready for that? Is he really ready for that?
- He’ll lose. Let’s not overcomplicate this.
It is very much in the best interest of the people in charge of the Republican party to act like Trump is weak, teetering, just waiting for DeSantis to knock him off. But there is the little problem of the majority of actual Republican voters. They like Trump. They want him to be President again. They do not care that it might cost Republicans the House, that Trump would be a heavy underdog against Biden, that Trump is criminal who is under so many investigations right now it’s difficult to even count them. They won’t vote for him in spite of all that; they’ll vote for him because of it. Ron DeSantis is the most formidable challenger to Donald Trump. But he’s still just a challenger. Republican voters aren’t the party leaders. They want Trump. And if DeSantis, with all the momentum and support he has right now, runs against Trump in the primaries and loses? How could he possibly recover from that? He’ll be nobody’s savior then.
Look: As someone who thinks Trump is a clear and present danger to the American Republic and the world order, I am very interested in seeing him kept as far as the White House as possible. I hope DeSantis runs against him, and runs hard. But if I were Ron DeSantis, I’d say out of this one. Trump will make DeSantis — and thus, the majority of Republican voters — into his worst enemy. DeSantis should let Trump’s worst enemy continue to be Trump. DeSantis should keep doing what he’s doing, keep his powder dry in case Trump, like, goes to jail or something. But challenging Trump? That’s a sucker’s bet. He should stay out.
Will Leitch writes multiple pieces a week for Medium. Make sure to follow him right here. He lives in Athens, Georgia, with his family and is the author of five books, including the Edgar-nominated novel How Lucky, now out from Harper Books. He also writes a free weekly newsletter that you might enjoy.
