Reviewing The First Few Chapters Of The Book of Kyler Murray

Flashback to a (likely fictional) conversation that took place in the bar of some swanky downtown Indianapolis restaurant, sometime at the very end of this past February, likely after a Manhattan or six were consumed:

[Random NFL reporter]: “Surely, you can’t be serious about using the #1 overall pick to take Kyler Murray, after your team already invested a top 10 pick on a quarterback just one year before?”

[Recently hired Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury]: “We’re still in the process of evaluating the guys we have on the roster, but Murray is definitely a special talent.

[Arizona Cardinals team president Michael Bidwill]: “Well I’m serious. And don’t call me ‘Shirley.’”

Admittedly, the Arizona Cardinals made something of a mockery in their personnel pursuits this past offseason.

First, they became the most egregious offender of the “let’s any coach who’s been in the orbit of Sean McVay” trend this past offseason (it’s been well-documented that Kingsbury was dismissed from Texas Tech after compiling an overall record of 35–40 over six seasons, including an alarming .351 winning percentage in Big 12 play).

And that was followed by the news trickling out, right in the middle of the 2019 NFL Combine, that it was all but a done deal that the Cardinals were going to take Murray with the #1 overall pick.

(Side note: I’m willing to bet dollars to doughnuts that if you divvied up the “who’s more responsible for bringing Kingsbury & Murray Arizona” pie, at least two-thirds of that pie belonged to team Bidwill, as a desperate effort to make the Cardinals relevant off the football field as he was making them successful on the field. It all goes back to my #1 rule of professional sports: if a personnel move — regarding a player, coach, or front office executive — seems strange, impulsive, short-sighted, and/or ‘out of left field’ in general, 99.5% that move was made due to the edict of an impetuous, if not petulant owner.)

But procedural mockery notwithstanding, the Cardinals’ new plan presented a fascinating subplot: with the NFL increasingly adopting elements of the Air Raid offense, and Murray’s familiarity with the offensive schemes that Kingsbury would bring to the desert (Murray threw for more than 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns at the University of Oklahoma for Lincoln Riley, the latter of whom is a fellow acolyte of the Air Raid, and was once a teammate of Kingsbury in 2002, when they both played for Mike Leach), what if this entire experiment actually ended up successful?

Even though, as fans, we greatly overreact and make gross generalizations about NFL teams on a near-weekly basis, three games does not a season make.

So while it’s easy to point out that Murray is ranked among the bottom 10 quarterbacks in the NFL in Completed Air Yards (ie, how many yards in the air the ball travels before it’s caught), averages less yards per attempt than guys like Luke Falk and Eli Manning, leads an offense that’s currently ranked 30th in the NFL in passing offense DVOA, and still hasn’t been able to guide the Cardinals to a win, calling Murray anything close to a “bust” is highly premature, at best.

What is clear, at least so far, is that Murray is learning to adjust to the talent and speed of the opponents, and the lack of talent and speed he has on his own team. Needless to say, there’s a little bit of difference in the overall talent in skill among the front seven of Murray’s opponent last weekend (the Baltimore Ravens), than the type of opponents (like Army and Baylor) he was playing against this time last year.

Plus, like his predecessor (Josh Rosen), Murray is much a “victim” of the circumstances around him. The Cardinals’ have trailed at halftime in each of their first three games, they’re in the bottom six in the NFL in total rushing attempts (even though Murray himself averages almost five rushing attempts per game), and their offensive line is still a dumpster fire (they’re currently the 4th-worst line in the NFL in terms of pass protection).

So while you could blame Murray for being a little too quick to resort to the check down throw when he doesn’t see the wide open passing lanes he used to see when playing in Riley’s offense, it’s hard to blame him for trying to get rid of the football as fast as possible when he’s got defenders screaming off the edge and making a beeline in his direction.

But with all of that being said, a closer look at the Cardinals’ offense will show you there’s something of a method to the madness.

Too many of the “old school” NFL coaches draft young quarterbacks, end up playing them way too early (at the behest of the fans and/or the front office), and get antsy when they’re not immediately proficient in these complicated offensive schemes, even though a lot of said quarterback prospects played in vastly different offensive schemes in college.

Conversely, Kingsbury’s plan appears to allow Murray to progress through the proverbial “crawl → walk → run” evolution of a quarterback. Each week, the game plan includes a ton of rocket screens, swing passes to the running backs in the flat, and quick throws to receivers running slant routes. You also see a ton of the “mesh” concept that dominates the college football landscape, allowing Murray to attack man coverage via the crossing routes and zone coverage via the space opened up behind the mesh point. There’s almost a level of an “if this, then that” automation to Murray’s progressions, thereby actually allowing Murray to think less and use his talent and instincts more (Murray is currently among the top 10 quarterbacks in the fastest average time between taking the snap and throwing the football).

Said game plans by Kingsbury come straight out of Leach’s “flavor” of the Air Raid system, which actually incorporates a hybrid of the original offensive scheme devised by Hal Mumme, some of the principles of the West Coast Offense straight out of the Bill Walsh playbook, and maybe even a few sprinkles of the old run-and-shoot offense and even a hint of the “pace-and-space” precepts that are currently dominating the NBA.

Put another way: instead of having his quarterback drop back five-to-seven steps, wait for guys to get open downfield, and risk Murray getting annihilated behind Arizona’s perennially overmatched offensive line, Kingsbury’s system is predicated on getting the ball out of Murray’s hands quickly, and forcing the defense to run side to side and defend the width of the field.

So while we can all scoff Murray’s paltry yards per attempt figure as a direct function of this offense, it’s worth noting that Murray is currently 13th in the NFL in passing yards per game, throwing for more yards on a weekly basis than Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff, and Baker Mayfield, among others.

That’s not to say that Murray’s NFL future exists as a “dink and dunk” quarterback who’ll never throw the ball past the first down marker.

One of the biggest reasons why many people in the NFL were willing to overlook Murray’s lack of measurables (he’s officially listed at 5–10 and 207lbs) was because of his overall arm talent.

When Murray does uncork his “fastball,” that arm talent because very visible. He’s got the coveted ability to deliver lasers downfield with little more than a flip of the wrist; his baseball background is very evident when you watch his barely-there windup to throw. Now, it just becomes a matter of when he and Kingsbury are more able to utilize that talent.

And that’s why if you were to grade Murray thus far on your standard A through F scale, in all honesty, he’s probably an “incomplete.”

If there is one thing we can glean from Murray so far, it’s that the pro game doesn’t feel too big for him. The level of competition may be far more fierce than what he faced in the friendly confines of the Big 12, but he’s far from overwhelmed.

But otherwise, Murray is still early on in his own developmental path as a quarterback, which coincides with where the Cardinals are in their own badly-needed rebuild.

And how the rest of the league evolves to stop the increasing influx of the college-based passing attack(s), and how Kingsbury and Murray are able to grow what they’re currently doing right now, is a chapter that’s still unwritten.

Week 4 Picks

Lines courtesy of MyBookie.Ag, as of Friday, 9/28

Philadelphia at Green Bay (-4) — pick made Thursday evening Washington at NY Giants (-3) Carolina at Houston (-4) Cleveland at Baltimore (-7) LA Chargers (-14.5) at Miami Oakland at Indianapolis (-7) Kansas City (-7) at Detroit New England at Buffalo (-7) Tennessee at Atlanta (-3.5) Tampa Bay at LA Rams (-9.5) Seattle (-5) at Arizona Minnesota at Chicago (-2) Jacksonville at Denver (-3) Dallas (-2.5) at New Orleans Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-3.5)

Last week: 5–11 Season To Date: 26–22

Rajan Nanavati is the editor of HailToTheDistrict.com. You can follow Rajan on Twitter, find the HailToTheDistrict Podcast here, and/or view his writing archives here.