Reflections From a Floridian Facing America’s Potential Pandemic Epicenter

Fatalism will kill us all.

We’re past the third month of the coronavirus pandemic and I’m starting to go crazy.

I haven’t seen my friends in God knows how long. I’m living with people — my grandparents — who are not interested in the same things that I’m in. I’m constantly bombarded with the news, as that’s all they watch and talk about.

Yet I am somewhat healthy. I eat and have a roof over my head. I’ve only smoked twice in almost three months, I walk everyday, and I work out (push-ups) every other day. I’m drinking a Coke as of this writing, so there’s definitely room to improve.

Nevertheless I’m living in what’s about to become to epicenter of the pandemic in the United States, currently the deadliest country in the COVID-infected world. (We are also the deadliest country when considering phenomena such as shootings, but that’s for a different article.)

I’m scared as hell. We have set records for new cases everyday, yet people in Florida are acting as if we’re not in a global pandemic, and that we’re not at the epicenter of it. I don’t know how I’m internally doing — I’m working on getting health insurance. I’m neither seeing friends nor doing anything “dangerous”. I’m 22 and I guess I have a solid immune system. However I’m scared as hell, and rightfully so.

A few months ago, we were all told to stay at home and we didn’t have as many cases in Florida as we do right now. Now it’s the opposite: we have more cases and people that I know are going out more.

So how am I coping in the time and place I’m living in?

For starters, I have to learn that I cannot control the actions of others. It doesn’t matter that I read a book a week (mostly nonfiction), it doesn’t matter that I’m an overeducated millennial with a college degree, it doesn’t matter that I make some of my living writing on the Internet. None of that changes the actions of others. I can only control the actions of myself.

I’ll be the first to admit that people where I’m staying at are not as precautious as I am. Tomorrow we’re having a Father’s Day barbecue with the whole immediate family (16 people including myself in a compact space) and I’m very annoyed (this is an understatement) that we’re having it. Yet I cannot change the behavior of others, I can only control myself.

Simultaneously I have to be diplomatic and not be a bad family member and show up. I live here so that’s what I need to do.

Many would probably tell me something along the lines of this: well if people in your house are not socially distancing, you might as well go out and stuff.

But it’s not as simple as that.

The perspective above is one of fatalism — it either is or isn’t. It doesn’t permit nuance. You either go big or go home — a spectrum does not exist.

Instead, I’m a probabilist: I mitigate the risk.

At present, there are 10,837 documented cases of COVID in Broward County, where I’m located. Our population is 1,952,778 as of July 1, 2019. Let’s assume that the population has roughly stayed the same since. This means that approximately 0.54% of Broward’s population is known to have the coronavirus.

Let’s get deeper.

I’m in zip code 33021, which is the West Hollywood area (I wish the California one). There are 275 cases in this zip code alone. 10 of the 16 people going to the barbecue live in this zip code.

What is the probability that any of the 10 people in this zip code already have the coronavirus?

It’s impossible to tell as they bounce from zip code to zip code and I’m neither Facebook nor Santa Claus, so I don’t know everything about these people’s lives. I don’t see them when they’re sleeping, I don’t exactly know when they’re awake. Facebook and Santa do, though.

As of 2018, there are 49,350 people in this zip code. This means that 0.56% of the zip code’s population is known to have the coronavirus. To put it another way, approximately one out of every 200 people have COVID in my zip code. One-in-two-hundred is a lot. We’ve all been to many places with at least 200 people in them.

The coronavirus spreads in clusters, so if any of us is already sick and doesn’t know it, then all 10 who live in 33021 will contract the coronavirus. In addition to the six who live in two other zip codes.

The craziest part is that none of us will know that we have the coronavirus for days, so for days we’ll be continuing about our own business until we finally feel symptoms.

As people, are we going to accept the fact that we can kill others with our behavior?

It’s frustrating to think about this, but at the end of the day, we need to learn and accept that we cannot change the behavior of other people. We just can’t…

Unless, of course, the government decided to do something about it.

Governor Ron DeSantis, where the fuck have you been? Telling the press how great your re-opening plan is going? Playing golf with Donald Trump? Eating Pub subs?

The fact of the matter is this: the more we pretend the pandemic doesn’t exist, the likelier we are to contract the virus and spread it to other people. We are doing the opposite of what’s smart, and we are all complicit in it. Herd immunity is called “herd” immunity for a reason.

At the beginning of this writing, you were probably expecting something that’s more “positive”.

Well it’s not: I live in a state where we play Russian roulette on a daily basis, where we’re okay with other people dying, where we’re okay with loved ones dying, where we value property more than people. The list goes on and on.

I’m really trying my best to stay positive in this situation, but how is that possible? Who am I, Professor Pangloss?

Yes, I’m appreciative that I’m in the “statistically-less-likely-to-die demographic”.

But that doesn’t change the fact that thousands are and will die because we decided that going to restaurants is more important than keeping people alive.

I’m going to stay home, even if the people around me are not. At least I’m mitigating the risk.