Re: “The American Dilemma of War” — written by George Friedman
This story was originally published in Areas & Producers
I am a loyal follower of Geopolitical Futures and its diverse team of writers, analysts and forecasters.
George Friedman is founder of Geopolitical Futures and author of many books on geopolitics. This latest writing by Friedman about the United States’ history of engaging with wars around the world is insightful and a little controversial. Have a look at it here.
Now, here are my thoughts about the article.
“Many argue that the United States should not have involved itself in the Ukraine war…These are not frivolous arguments, but they miss other dimensions of war. The first is that war isn’t always a choice. The second is that avoiding war is sometimes even costlier than entering a conflict.”
The cost of war is not generally taken into consideration since the United States seems prepared to fund wars and conflicts at any given moment — just look at how quickly they sent their naval ships to the Red Sea. War isn’t a choice; it is an imperative. When it becomes an imperative, then it immediately conjures up thoughts of what defense and security should, or should not, mean to the people affected. To avoid war is often not in the interest of most countries, even though they cannot seriously sustain a prolonged war such as the magnitude of the Russia-Ukraine war, which is why I’m surprised that Ukraine has continued to put up with the invasion from Russia for this long.
“The question is not whether the world appears a dangerous place to the U.S. but rather what is to be done about the situation. There are always choices; some save a country, some trap a country, some urge caution, and others demand action. The U.S. is always on the threshold of making another decision, with great debate over what it ought to be.”
This debate is going to be especially fierce during an election year. The foreign policy agenda has been linked to the US’ own national security close to home — known as the “border crisis” — as the country is in shock over the surge in migrants from the US’ southern border with Mexico. It has also come to the attention of authorities that these migrants are coming from all over the world — even China! Wow, this era of the border crisis appears to be spiraling out of control, which is why the debate ought to be surrounding why the US is still attracting people from all over the world; and whether or not this is adverse to the US foreign policy agenda going beyond the 2024 presidential election.
“We face the Ukraine conflict on the same basis [as World War II and Vietnam]. We are divided. Some feel there is no risk, others that it is an existential threat. But the U.S. adopted the strategy of arming a native force and not deploying U.S. forces. It came from an understanding of what happened in Vietnam and also from the fears wrought by the Cold War. Likewise, in the Middle East, we are trying to determine what interest we have that justifies war.”
The US citizens’ view on war is evolving with current affairs. But how about the US government’s view? It seems that the defense budget continues to go up, while during every election cycle the debate about foreign policy surrounds why the US defense budget and military spending should be higher. There’s generally not a lot of talk about reducing defense spending or taking national security out of the equation when talking about external threats. I guess that this is just the historical problematique of the US political psyche. I agree with those people who say that the US is a complicated country to understand. I find that people I have met from other parts of the world either show a distinguished curiosity about the US compared with the rest of the world, or they think that the country’s history is too simplistic to be taken seriously. I would bet my money on the former; and never the latter.
Read the full story: “The American Dilemma of War”.
