Ranking Your Best Picture Nominees by Likelihood They Will Win

It’s OK to care!

The Oscar nominations came out this morning. Oscar nominations are silly because all awards shows are silly, but of all the awards shows, the Oscars are unquestionably both the silliest and the most serious. The Academy Awards may fail at this goal constantly, but they do at least try to honor the objectively best movie of the year: You’re never going to see Transformers nominated for Best Picture, no matter how many people go to watch it. (I do not believe this to be the case for other awards shows.)

Plus, as the actual experience of going to the movies feels forever under attack — how many people in your life tell you, “Oh, jeez, I don’t remember the last time I want to the movies!” because in my life it is a lot — anything that honors this most truly global of art forms is fine in my book. People are going to be talking movies for a month or so? OK by me!

So, to kick off the fun, here’s a quick back-of-napkin ranking of the 10 films nominated for Best Picture, by their likelihood to actually win the award. This isn’t my personal ranking: I’ll put that at the end of the post. But this is a quick guess as to what will win. From least likely to most …

10. Women Talking. The biggest surprise nominee, Sarah Polley’s, well, talky drama also received a screenplay nomination, but no acting nominations. No one will be unhappy seeing Polley win a nomination, but this is the furthest of longshots.

9. Elvis. No longer known as “the movie where Tom Hanks got Covid,” the brash Baz Luhrmann musical features a terrific Austin Butler performance, a terrible Tom Hanks performance and so, so much Baz Luhrmann-ing. It is a bit of a coup to win a nomination, but Butler’s likely win will have to suffice.

8. Avatar: The Way of Water. You sort of have to nominate a movie that almost singlehandedly saved the holiday box office, but if the first one wasn’t going to win (and it didn’t), this one’s not going to.

7. Top Gun: Maverick. Jerry Bruckheimer, Oscar nominee. As much fun as it would be to see Tom Cruise win his first Oscar ever, but for producing, this is an ultimately “wow, if 1986 You could see what’s going to happen in 2023” moment.

6. Triangle of Sadness. Ruben Ostlund’s class satire won the Palme d’Or at Cannes and features Woody Harrelson, exploding billionaires and a lot of vomiting. It wouldn’t be this high in the rankings, but Ostlund was a surprise nominee for Best Director, boosting it slightly.

5. The Banshees of Inishirin. Martin McDonagh’s quietly devastating comedy feels like a movie of the moment — particularly impressive considering it’s an Irish period piece — but it doesn’t seem to have the scope and heft you usually want from Best Picture. It could be a compromise pick from some of the more polarizing films above it.

4. The Fabelmans. Steven Spielberg’s autobiographical ode to moviemaking — and all its failures — is beloved, and it garnered a surprise Michelle Williams nomination. But if Saving Private Ryan didn’t win Best Picture — and it didn’t — this won’t.

3. All Quiet on the Western Front. The Netflix war film was a late charger in the race, benefiting from the fact that no other Netflix movies really quite caught on. There are clear 1917 vibes here.

2. Tar. Todd Field’s epic character study is the criticial consensus winner, and there is a new weird rumbling among some that the Academy might see it as an anti-cancel-culture film (which it isn’t) that it can get behind. If people are going to vote for this incredible film, I hope that’s not why. This is definitely going to be the movie that lasts.

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once. This has been the clubhouse leader for a while, and skeptics (like me) keep waiting for a backlash that still hasn’t come. People love this movie. It’s the clear, obvious favorite.

And my ranking, for what it’s worth (nothing):

1. Tar
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. The Fabelmans
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. The Banshees of Inishirin
6. Triangle of Sadness
7. Elvis
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once
9. Women Talking
10. All Quiet on the Western Front

Enjoy the show. (It’s not until March 12, if you can believe that.)

Will Leitch writes multiple pieces a week for Medium. Make sure to follow him right here. He lives in Athens, Georgia, with his family and is the author of five books, including the Edgar-nominated novel How Lucky, now out from Harper Books. He also writes a free weekly newsletter that you might enjoy.