Putin’s Extraordinary Defeat Is Why We are Unlikely To See an Invasion of Taiwan Soon…

My two cents…

Since February, we have been treated to such an extraordinary spectacle: Vladmir Putin’s ignominious defeat at the hands of a supposedly weaker and less formidable foe.

As expected, you will have read a plethora of opinion pieces, here and elsewhere as to why this was the case.

You will have read about the profoundly incompetent generals who failed to give Putin sound advice on the best approach to invade its neighbours, of which the outcome has been tens of thousands of dead Russian service men.

You will also have read about Russia’s reasons for waging war in the very first place — its access and need for control of Ukraine’s ports.

But I think that it is important to explain the following points about this vast nation-state.

Russia is the world’s preeminent landmass power which is surrounded by implacable foes. Given its geography, it always has to worry about its neighbours getting up to some mischief or another.

This thinking certainly informed the actions of Ivan the terrible, several centuries ago, when he sought to expand the frontiers of Russia’s power.

And his work was certainly picked up by the House of Romanov in 1613 for the next few centuries.

During this time Russia took on and defeated several of its foes. Poland and Lithuania were subdued, France under Napoleon Bonaparte was given a very good spanking and Sweden was also decimated.

Aside from the losses to Turkey, during the Crimean war and Japan in 1905, Russia’s successes meant that it expanded its landmass and had access to the resources that the Uzbeks, Kazkhs, Tajiks and its neighbours. Russian imperialism didn’t abate for a nanosecond when the Bolshevik revolutionaries took over once the white armies were defeated; It carried on.

By the time Hitler paid the price for reneging on his pact with Stalin in 1939, Russia was able to expand its might across the continent like never before and what’s more, it also had its sights on China.

Needless to say that this was the reason for the cold war which had humanity staring into the abyss for a long second.

The end of the cold war did the greatest damage to Russia which saw its size shrink to what it was during the reign of Catherine the Great with Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan etc.

So why have I written a few paragraphs of Russian history?

To highlight the degree to which Russia has been shaped by its geography and to understand the forces which shape its current leader — Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.

Putin is a product of Russian history.

And it is exactly why he made the decision to invade Ukraine.

But what he failed to comprehend was the degree to which Ukraine was willing to fight and preserve its freedom. This wasn’t the 18th, 19th or the 20th centuries, when it had no choice but to accept Russian subjugation; modern day Ukrainians are staunchly pro-American in their outlook.

And like many others have written here and elsewhere, we cannot discount the American factor in the ignominious defeat of Russia.

In pulling out of Afghanistan and fighting one of the greatest proxy wars ever seen in Ukraine, America has provided a timely reminder of its capabilities.

Unlike a few of my colleagues who have written quite extensively about the coming apart of the United States, President Joe Biden has played his hand quite deftly in dealing with the double threat of China and Russia.

While committing a huge amount of resources to Zelenskyy in pinning back the Russian bear, Biden sent Nancy Pelosi to undertake a trip to Taiwan to in order to distract and enrage China.

And what was the end result?

The humiliation and distraction of China on its door step by its biggest rivals.

For a second, I thought that Xi Jingping would seek his pound of flesh by lashing out at its tiny neighbours.

But no such thing happened.

Even as the Chinese leader wins a third term and consolidates his grip on his country, our man cannot risk taking on tiny Taiwan and making the same mistakes as his Russian counterpart.

And Putin’s refusal to come to terms with his ignominious defeat has meant that we are yet confronted with the spectre of a nuclear holocaust.

Even if we get past that, the consequences of Putin’s failure will be borne by generations of Russians yet unborn.

Back when the war started in February, we were rightly concerned about Ukraine and China’s tacit support for the aggressor.

What we didn’t envisage was the degree to which America would deftly play its hand by neutralizing two of its largest rivals on the global stage without committing a single fighting man to the battle field.

Aren’t pronouncements of America’s demise premature?

Reference:

The Revenge of Geography by Robert D. Kaplan