Putin Is Running Out of Cover
Killing Prigozhin and Navalny make him weaker, not stronger.
I have been arguing — from the beginning — that Russia cannot survive a sustained war with the tech-manufacturer buyers of Russian natural resources (a.k.a. the West). Ultimately, big money interests in the US/EU will get their investments back, so to speak — and new opportunities in cheap Russian and Ukrainian resources.
China, for mostly sitting it out, will get its cut too. That’s assuming the West and China don’t go to war beforehand.
Militarily speaking, Putin played a Queen’s gambit and failed. Russia is losing all its bishops, rooks and knights; that is, military assets.
Politically speaking, eliminating opponents gives Putin a short-term boost in power projection but carries with it a long-term liability. Prigozhin and Gherkin were once friends and protectors. Putin has never been more exposed to internal insurrection.
Ukraine losing Avdiivka
For political reasons Putin put everything into capturing Avdiivka. With an incredible cost in manpower and machines (bishops and knights) it has been accomplished. However, I expect we’ll read about Russian ammunition (well, everything) shortages this spring.
General Oleksandr Syrskyi will attack where he believes Ukraine can win. Avdiivka was played-out, a distraction. I understand one could argue I’m rationalizing away Ukraine’s failure. I’m not. Ukraine lost.
So what? Russia will lose more this summer. That’s been the pattern since the beginning.
Many news reports claim Russia is building 100 tanks a day, more missiles, drone factories, etc. So what? It’s all old-tech weapons. Yes, even drone technology gets old.
Russia isn’t building many — if any — state-of-the-art helicopters, fighter aircraft, AWACs, navy vessels and other advanced equipment.
You know who is becoming a leading manufacturer of high-tech drones and the best tactics for using them? Ukraine.
Yes technology isn’t everything. To hold a defensive line behind mine-fields you don’t need advanced fighter jets. So yes, Russia can defend its land grab of Ukrainian territory for years.
And yes, Ukraine can’t take back most of what Russia currently holds.
But does it need to?
Tucker Carlson
Putin loved giving Americans a lesson in history and power. Sit there and listen you effete American joke of a journalist. Try to understand real power.
Remember the look of Putin’s smug face during that interview. Putin can’t imagine ending up like Khadafi with a literal stick stuck up his azz. Neither could Khadafi. The irony is Americans won’t feel a sense of revenge. They won’t even care. Weeks later Putin will be forgotten.
What I’m sort of saying here is that Putin treats Americans as useful idiots. And he’s right. We’re the most idiotic people on Earth. No one understands American idiocy better than me! And I believe I’m smart because I can recognize idiots! That’s us! And we learned it all from the Europeans, from which we came.
Yes, Tucker is an idiot and half the country hates him. But he’s our idiot.
What Putin doesn’t get is how violent and cold we are. Putin believes he’s strong because he had one sniper take out Navalny in a cold prison yard (if that’s what happened).
Real evil is a nation where 300 million people blissfully pay their tax dollars towards an industry that will build a missile to destroy every single piece of military hardware sitting wherever we don’t want it, i.e. Russia. Or we might let our “friends” use the missiles and bombs to drop on their enemies in Yemen or Gaza.
We should care about who our weapons kill. I wish we did care. We don’t.
I think we’re just like the Romans.
Putin might exclaim in a Bond film, “We have 20% of Ukraine and you think you’re going to make me lose?” Our Goldfinger would answer, “I don’t expect you to lose, Putin. I expect everyone in your country to go back to the stone age.”
Alexei Navalny
The more “opponents” Putin has, the more he can deflect blame or criticism. Almost all the excuses have been sidelined, jailed or killed.
There is no buffer. There is no more misdirection. Once the world forgets about Russia’s beyond-historic and brave capture of Avdiivka what will Putin offer his cronies or people?
Why would Putin kill Navalny now? It takes away from the news from Avdiivka. I believe it’s 50/50 not what Putin wanted.
Why would anyone in the Russian elite trust Putin anymore? Navalny wasn’t some liberal socialist. Nor was Prigozhin. No one is safe anymore in the Putin Regime. They’re already been throwing each other off roofs to cement power. Why wouldn’t that eventually reach Putin’s inner circle?
There’s only one word that describes Putin in Carlson’s interview — pathetic. If pressed, who would disagree with that? If only we could get Biden, Trump, Putin and Netanyahu in a room together.
Like I said, I can see idiots.